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Simulation of a financial market: The possibility of catastrophic disequilibrium

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  • Sinha, Amit
  • Horvath, Philip A.
  • Beason, Tyler
  • Roos, Kelly R.

Abstract

We use kinetic Monte Carlo simulations to produce solutions of an agent-based, rate equation model of an informationally efficient, closed financial market. The simulations produce a crash in the market that is forewarned through the observation of a market instability from which the market temporarily recovers. The market remained in a quasi-stable state for a relatively large amount of time between the warning and the crash, raising the prospect that some mitigating action can be taken in time to avert the impending crash. This result has strong ramifications for the future of predicting calamitous market events, especially if some observable aspect of financial markets can be positively identified and associated with simulation parameters.

Suggested Citation

  • Sinha, Amit & Horvath, Philip A. & Beason, Tyler & Roos, Kelly R., 2019. "Simulation of a financial market: The possibility of catastrophic disequilibrium," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 13-16.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:125:y:2019:i:c:p:13-16
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2019.05.011
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    2. Kaveh, Hojjat & Salarieh, Hassan, 2020. "A new approach to extreme event prediction and mitigation via Markov-model-based chaos control," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).

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