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Oil supply news shock and Chinese economy

Author

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  • Liu, Dandan
  • Wang, Qiaoyu
  • Yan, Karen Xueqing

Abstract

This paper studies the effects of the oil supply news shock on the Chinese economy using a novel approach as newly proposed in Känzig (2021). Specifically, we use the changes of West Texas Intermediate oil futures prices around OPEC meeting announcements as a high-frequency instrument in a structural VAR model to identify the oil supply news shock. Our results suggest that the Chinese domestic economy is not affected significantly by the shock in terms of industrial production and CPI, two important macroeconomic indicators. However, due to the global features of the international trade, China's exchange rate and trade balance respond to the shock.

Suggested Citation

  • Liu, Dandan & Wang, Qiaoyu & Yan, Karen Xueqing, 2022. "Oil supply news shock and Chinese economy," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:chieco:v:73:y:2022:i:c:s1043951x22000542
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2022.101796
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil supply news shock; Chinese economy; OPEC; VARs; High-frequency instrument;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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