IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/chieco/v62y2020ics1043951x20300730.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Assessing the price dynamics of onshore and offshore RMB markets: An ITS model approach

Author

Listed:
  • Sun, Yuying
  • Bao, Qin
  • Zheng, Jiali
  • Wang, Shouyang

Abstract

This paper investigates how the price dynamics of both onshore and offshore RMB markets are affected by fundamental determinants, market liquidity, global risk aversion and policies by using daily data from August 2010 to February 2016. The interval time series (ITS) modelling is applied to study the RMB price mechanism by capturing prices of the two markets as one self-formed interval data. An interval-based Wald test is constructed to examine the differences between the coefficients and an interval-based Mallows criterion is proposed for choosing appropriate explanatory variables. We find that both the price level and the price differences of onshore and offshore RMB markets are greatly affected by economic fundamentals indicated by different returns on stock indexes and market liquidity indicated by bid-ask prices of offshore market price. In addition, it is suggested that the interest rate spread between China and the US and the global risk appetite do not significantly affect the RMB price for both onshore and offshore markets. Finally, the results imply that “811 reform” of the RMB exchange rate regime does not change the fundamental price dynamics of RMB markets, but significantly changes how economic fundamentals affect the price mechanism of RMB exchange rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Sun, Yuying & Bao, Qin & Zheng, Jiali & Wang, Shouyang, 2020. "Assessing the price dynamics of onshore and offshore RMB markets: An ITS model approach," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:chieco:v:62:y:2020:i:c:s1043951x20300730
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2020.101476
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1043951X20300730
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.chieco.2020.101476?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David K. Ding & Yiuman Tse & Michael R. Williams, 2014. "The Price Discovery Puzzle in Offshore Yuan Trading: Different Contributions for Different Contracts," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(2), pages 103-123, February.
    2. Fatum, Rasmus & Yamamoto, Yohei & Zhu, Guozhong, 2017. "Is the Renminbi a safe haven?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 189-202.
    3. J. M. Culbertson, 1957. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 71(4), pages 485-517.
    4. Ka-Fai Li & Cho-Hoi Hui & Tsz-Kin Chung, 2012. "Determinants and Dynamics of Price Disparity in Onshore and Offshore Renminbi Forward Exchange Rate Markets," Working Papers 242012, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    5. Xiaoli Chen & Yin‐Wong Cheung, 2011. "Renminbi Going Global," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 19(2), pages 1-18, March.
    6. Shu, Chang & He, Dong & Cheng, Xiaoqiang, 2015. "One currency, two markets: the renminbi's growing influence in Asia-Pacific," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 163-178.
    7. Billard L. & Diday E., 2003. "From the Statistics of Data to the Statistics of Knowledge: Symbolic Data Analysis," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 98, pages 470-487, January.
    8. Owyong, David & Wong, Wing-Keung & Horowitz, Ira, 2015. "Cointegration and causality among the onshore and offshore markets for China's currency," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 20-38.
    9. Dumas, Bernard & Solnik, Bruno, 1995. "The World Price of Foreign Exchange Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 445-479, June.
    10. Dong He & Robert N. McCauley, 2010. "Offshore Markets for the Domestic Currency: Monetary and Financial Stability Issues," Working Papers 1002, Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
    11. Tian, Lei & Chen, Langnan, 2013. "A reinvestigation of the new RMB exchange rate regime," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 16-25.
    12. Funke, Michael & Shu, Chang & Cheng, Xiaoqiang & Eraslan, Sercan, 2015. "Assessing the CNH–CNY pricing differential: Role of fundamentals, contagion and policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 245-262.
    13. Wei Yang & Ai Han & Yongmiao Hong & Shouyang Wang, 2016. "Analysis of crisis impact on crude oil prices: a new approach with interval time series modelling," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(12), pages 1917-1928, December.
    14. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Rime, Dagfinn, 2014. "The offshore renminbi exchange rate: Microstructure and links to the onshore market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(PA), pages 170-189.
    15. Bailey, Warren, 1995. "Risk and return on China's new stock markets: Some preliminary evidence," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 141-141, May.
    16. John Fernald & John H. Rogers, 2002. "Puzzles In The Chinese Stock Market," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(3), pages 416-432, August.
    17. Pekka T. Hietala, 1989. "Asset Pricing in Partially Segmented Markets: Evidence from the Finnish Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(3), pages 697-718, July.
    18. Daqing Yao & John Whalley, 2016. "The China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone: Background, Developments and Preliminary Assessment of Initial Impacts," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(1), pages 2-15, January.
    19. Xu, Hai-Chuan & Zhou, Wei-Xing & Sornette, Didier, 2017. "Time-dependent lead-lag relationship between the onshore and offshore Renminbi exchange rates," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 173-183.
    20. Mr. R. S Craig & Mr. Changchun Hua & Philip Ng & Raymond Yuen, 2013. "Development of the Renminbi Market in Hong Kong SAR: Assessing Onshore-Offshore Market Integration," IMF Working Papers 2013/268, International Monetary Fund.
    21. Dobson, Wendy & Masson, Paul R., 2009. "Will the renminbi become a world currency?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 124-135, March.
    22. Gloria González-Rivera & Wei Lin, 2013. "Constrained Regression for Interval-Valued Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(4), pages 473-490, October.
    23. Zhang, Zhibai & Chen, Langnan, 2014. "A new assessment of the Chinese RMB exchange rate," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 113-122.
    24. Sun, Qian & Tong, Wilson H. S., 2000. "The effect of market segmentation on stock prices: The China syndrome," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(12), pages 1875-1902, December.
    25. Ai Han & Yongmiao Hong & Shouyang Wang & Xin Yun, 2016. "A Vector Autoregressive Moving Average Model for Interval-Valued Time Series Data," Advances in Econometrics, in: Essays in Honor of Aman Ullah, volume 36, pages 417-460, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    26. Tang, Bo, 2015. "Real exchange rate and economic growth in China: A cointegrated VAR approach," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 293-310.
    27. Sun, Yuying & Han, Ai & Hong, Yongmiao & Wang, Shouyang, 2018. "Threshold autoregressive models for interval-valued time series data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 206(2), pages 414-446.
    28. Lima Neto, Eufrasio de A. & de Carvalho, Francisco de A.T., 2008. "Centre and Range method for fitting a linear regression model to symbolic interval data," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 1500-1515, January.
    29. Lima Neto, Eufrásio de A. & de Carvalho, Francisco de A.T., 2010. "Constrained linear regression models for symbolic interval-valued variables," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 333-347, February.
    30. Sun, Yuying & Zhang, Xun & Hong, Yongmiao & Wang, Shouyang, 2019. "Asymmetric pass-through of oil prices to gasoline prices with interval time series modelling," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 165-173.
    31. Amemiya, Takeshi, 1980. "Selection of Regressors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 21(2), pages 331-354, June.
    32. Bai, Ye & Chow, Darien Yan Pang, 2017. "Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect: An analysis of Chinese partial stock market liberalization impact on the local and foreign markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 182-203.
    33. repec:zbw:bofitp:2014_017 is not listed on IDEAS
    34. Xu, Jiayun & Mao, Qilin & Tong, Jiadong, 2016. "The impact of exchange rate movements on multi-product firms' export performance: Evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 46-62.
    35. Qiao, Kenan & Sun, Yuying & Wang, Shouyang, 2019. "Market inefficiencies associated with pricing oil stocks during shocks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 661-671.
    36. You, Kefei & Sarantis, Nicholas, 2012. "Structural breaks and the equilibrium real effective exchange rate of China: A NATREX approach," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 1146-1163.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hu, Genhua & Wang, Xiangjin & Qiu, Hong, 2023. "Analyzing a dynamic relation between RMB exchange rate onshore and offshore during the extreme market conditions," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 408-417.
    2. Qin, Weiguang & Bhattarai, Keshab, 2022. "Influence of Hong Kong RMB offshore market on effectiveness of structural monetary policy in the Mainland China," MPRA Paper 111768, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 30 Jan 2022.
    3. Sun, Yuying & Zhang, Xinyu & Wan, Alan T.K. & Wang, Shouyang, 2022. "Model averaging for interval-valued data," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 301(2), pages 772-784.
    4. Piao Wang & Shahid Hussain Gurmani & Zhifu Tao & Jinpei Liu & Huayou Chen, 2024. "Interval time series forecasting: A systematic literature review," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(2), pages 249-285, March.
    5. Liu, Yiye & Han, Liyan & Wu, You, 2022. "Can skewness predict CNY-CNH spread?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PB).
    6. Xiaoping Li & Zhipeng Zhang & Junyu Pan & Jihong Duan, 2023. "Investor attention and the predictability of the volatility of CNY‐CNH spreads: Evidence from a GARCH‐MIDAS model," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 63(5), pages 4939-4959, December.
    7. Chang, Meng-Shiuh & Ju, Peijie & Liu, Yilei & Hsueh, Shao-Chieh, 2022. "Determining hedges and safe havens for stocks using interval analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sun, Yuying & Zhang, Xinyu & Wan, Alan T.K. & Wang, Shouyang, 2022. "Model averaging for interval-valued data," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 301(2), pages 772-784.
    2. Hu, Genhua & Wang, Xiangjin & Qiu, Hong, 2023. "Analyzing a dynamic relation between RMB exchange rate onshore and offshore during the extreme market conditions," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 408-417.
    3. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Hui, Cho-Hoi & Tsang, Andrew, 2018. "The RMB central parity formation mechanism: August 2015 to December 2016," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 223-243.
    4. Sun, Yuying & Han, Ai & Hong, Yongmiao & Wang, Shouyang, 2018. "Threshold autoregressive models for interval-valued time series data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 206(2), pages 414-446.
    5. Yin-Wong Cheung & Cho-Hoi Hui & Andrew Tsang, 2017. "The RMB Central Parity Formation Mechanism after August 2015: A Statistical Analysis," Working Papers 062017, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    6. Yanping Zhao & Zaghum Umar & Xuan Vinh Vo, 2021. "Return and volatility connectedness of Chinese onshore, offshore, and forward exchange rate," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(11), pages 1843-1860, November.
    7. Keddad, Benjamin & Sato, Kiyotaka, 2022. "The influence of the renminbi and its macroeconomic determinants: A new Chinese monetary order in Asia?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    8. Xu, Hai-Chuan & Zhou, Wei-Xing & Sornette, Didier, 2017. "Time-dependent lead-lag relationship between the onshore and offshore Renminbi exchange rates," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 173-183.
    9. Eraslan, Sercan, 2017. "Asymmetric arbitrage trading on offshore and onshore renminbi markets," Discussion Papers 13/2017, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    10. Chang, Meng-Shiuh & Ju, Peijie & Liu, Yilei & Hsueh, Shao-Chieh, 2022. "Determining hedges and safe havens for stocks using interval analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    11. Tian, Shuairu & Gao, Xiang & Cai, Xiaojing, 2023. "The interactive CNY-CNH relationship: A wavelet analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    12. Yin-Wong Cheung & Cho-Hoi Hui & Andrew Tsang, 2016. "The Renminbi Central Parity: An Empirical Investigation," Working Papers 102016, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    13. Sun, Yuying & Zhang, Xun & Hong, Yongmiao & Wang, Shouyang, 2019. "Asymmetric pass-through of oil prices to gasoline prices with interval time series modelling," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 165-173.
    14. Sercan Eraslan, 2019. "Asymmetric arbitrage trading on offshore and onshore renminbi markets," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(5), pages 1653-1675, November.
    15. Wei Yang & Ai Han & Yongmiao Hong & Shouyang Wang, 2016. "Analysis of crisis impact on crude oil prices: a new approach with interval time series modelling," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(12), pages 1917-1928, December.
    16. Michael Melvin & Frank Westermann, 2022. "Chinese Exchange Rate Policy: Lessons for Global Investors," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(1), pages 145-168, February.
    17. Kunze, Frederik & Basse, Tobias & Wegener, Christoph & Spiwoks, Markus, 2018. "The emergence of the RMB: A "New Normal" for China's exchange rate system?," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 348, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    18. Lin, Wei & González-Rivera, Gloria, 2016. "Interval-valued time series models: Estimation based on order statistics exploring the Agriculture Marketing Service data," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 694-711.
    19. Babel Raïssa Guemdjo Kamdem & Jules Sadefo-Kamdem & Carlos Ougouyandjou, 2020. "On Random Extended Intervals and their ARMA Processes," Working Papers hal-03169516, HAL.
    20. Jia, Fei & Shen, Yao & Ren, Junfan & Xu, Xiangyun, 2021. "The impact of offshore exchange rate expectations on onshore exchange rates: The case of Chinese RMB," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    RMB exchange rate; Onshore and offshore markets; Price dynamics; interval time series;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:chieco:v:62:y:2020:i:c:s1043951x20300730. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/chieco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.