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Speculating in gains, waiting in losses: A closer look at the disposition effect

Author

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  • Talpsepp, Tõnn
  • Vlcek, Martin
  • Wang, Mei

Abstract

Using the trading data from Estonian stock market as well as the laboratory experiments, we find that investment decisions depend on the current performance and the past price movement. Investors are contrarian in gains and holding stocks in losses, which is mostly consistent with our experimental results, where participants stay with their last period allocations if they had losses; whereas they follow more active contrarian strategies if they had profits. Our experiment suggests that the risk attitude in losses, together with wishful thinking and misperception of the price process, such as gambler’s fallacy, may attribute to the observed disposition effect.

Suggested Citation

  • Talpsepp, Tõnn & Vlcek, Martin & Wang, Mei, 2014. "Speculating in gains, waiting in losses: A closer look at the disposition effect," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 2(C), pages 31-43.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:beexfi:v:2:y:2014:i:c:p:31-43
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbef.2014.04.001
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Daniela Vesselinova Balkanska, 2018. "Disposition effect and analyst forecast dispersion," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 50(3), pages 837-859, April.
    2. Seth, Himanshu & Talwar, Shalini & Bhatia, Anuj & Saxena, Akanksha & Dhir, Amandeep, 2020. "Consumer resistance and inertia of retail investors: Development of the resistance adoption inertia continuance (RAIC) framework," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    3. Sadaqat, Mohsin & Butt, Hilal Anwar, 2023. "Stop-loss rules and momentum payoffs in cryptocurrencies," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
    4. Stivers, Adam & Tsang, Ming & Deaves, Richard & Hoffer, Adam, 2020. "Behavior when the chips are down: An experimental study of wealth effects and exchange media," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    5. Massimiliano Affinito & Ludovica Galotto & Francesco Privitera, 2024. "The case for mindful customer protection: a review and some thoughts on neuroeconomics and neurofinance," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 888, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    6. Kumar, Satish & Rao, Sandeep & Goyal, Kirti & Goyal, Nisha, 2022. "Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance: A bibliometric overview," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C).
    7. Deaves, Richard & Kluger, Brian & Miele, Jennifer, 2018. "An exploratory experimental analysis of path-dependent investment behaviors," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 47-65.
    8. Rieger, Marc O. & Wang, Mei & Phan, Thuy Chung & Gong, Yujing, 2022. "Trend following or reversal: Does culture affect predictions and trading behavior?," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    9. Dalla Costa, Aldo Fortunato & Mollica, Vito & Singh, Abhay, 2021. "Payment methods and the disposition effect: Evidence from Indonesian mutual fund trading," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C).
    10. Cafferata, Alessia & Tramontana, Fabio, 2022. "Disposition Effect and its outcome on endogenous price fluctuations," MPRA Paper 113904, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Kahya, Evrim Hilal & Ekinci, Cumhur, 2022. "Disposition bias among Borsa Istanbul investors: What do we know about type, size and trading frequency?," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C).
    12. Jakusch, Sven Thorsten & Meyer, Steffen & Hackethal, Andreas, 2019. "Taming models of prospect theory in the wild? Estimation of Vlcek and Hens (2011)," SAFE Working Paper Series 146, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE, revised 2019.
    13. Talpsepp, Tõnn & Vaarmets, Tarvo, 2019. "The disposition effect, performance, stop loss orders and education," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Disposition effect; Housemoney effect prospect theory; Portfolio choice; Experimental finance;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D01 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Microeconomic Behavior: Underlying Principles
    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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