IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/asieco/v94y2024ics1049007824000770.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Demonetisation and labour force participation in India: The impact of governance and political alignment

Author

Listed:
  • Dev, Pritha
  • Unni, Jeemol

Abstract

This paper considers the demonetisation event of November 2016 in India and its impact on labour force participation and incomes with a view to understand the role of governance in how individuals weathered the shock. We measure governance at the state level by measuring if the state was ruled by Bhartiya Janta Party at the time of demonetisation which was also the ruling party in the centre under whom demonetisation was introduced. We use a difference in difference approach to compare outcomes before and after demonetisation for individuals in politically aligned states. We control for financial inclusion by the banking penetration at the state level and whether individuals had a bank account. We find evidence of a gendered impact of the macroeconomic shock of demonetisation. While we find that demonetisation is associated with an overall drop in labour force participation, we find that individuals residing in BJP ruled states fared relatively better and this was particularly true for females. We find that while incomes continued to rise post demonetisation, individuals residing in BJP ruled states had relatively better outcomes. We additionally controlled for states which were up for election in 2017 and find that individuals in states which were BJP ruled and up for reelections showed better employment and income outcomes.

Suggested Citation

  • Dev, Pritha & Unni, Jeemol, 2024. "Demonetisation and labour force participation in India: The impact of governance and political alignment," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:asieco:v:94:y:2024:i:c:s1049007824000770
    DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2024.101782
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1049007824000770
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.asieco.2024.101782?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Khemani, Stuti, 2007. "Does delegation of fiscal policy to an independent agency make a difference? Evidence from intergovernmental transfers in India," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 464-484, March.
    2. Karmakar, Sudipto & Narayanan, Abhinav, 2020. "Do households care about cash? Exploring the heterogeneous effects of India's demonetization," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    3. Solé-Ollé, Albert & Sorribas-Navarro, Pilar, 2008. "The effects of partisan alignment on the allocation of intergovernmental transfers. Differences-in-differences estimates for Spain," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(12), pages 2302-2319, December.
    4. Sergio Naruhiko Sakurai & Maria Isabel Accoroni Theodoro, 2020. "On the relationship between political alignment and government transfers: triple differences evidence from a developing country," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(3), pages 1107-1141, March.
    5. Franck, Raphaël & Rainer, Ilia, 2012. "Does the Leader's Ethnicity Matter? Ethnic Favoritism, Education, and Health in Sub-Saharan Africa," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 106(2), pages 294-325, May.
    6. Francesco Amodio & Giorgio Chiovelli & Sebastian Hohmann, 2024. "The Employment Effects of Ethnic Politics," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 16(2), pages 456-491, April.
    7. Arulampalam, Wiji & Dasgupta, Sugato & Dhillon, Amrita & Dutta, Bhaskar, 2009. "Electoral goals and center-state transfers: A theoretical model and empirical evidence from India," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 103-119, January.
    8. Ramey, V.A., 2016. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Their Propagation," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 71-162, Elsevier.
    9. Puhani, Patrick A., 2012. "The treatment effect, the cross difference, and the interaction term in nonlinear “difference-in-differences” models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 85-87.
    10. Fletcher, Erin K. & Pande, Rohini & Moore, Charity Troyer, 2019. "Women and Work in India: Descriptive Evidence and a Review of Potential Policies," India Policy Forum, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 15(1), pages 149-216.
    11. Gabriel Chodorow-Reich & Gita Gopinath & Prachi Mishra & Abhinav Narayanan, 2020. "Cash and the Economy: Evidence from India’s Demonetization," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 135(1), pages 57-103.
    12. Amartya Lahiri, 2020. "The Great Indian Demonetization," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 34(1), pages 55-74, Winter.
    13. Ai, Chunrong & Norton, Edward C., 2003. "Interaction terms in logit and probit models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 123-129, July.
    14. Cahan, Dodge, 2019. "Electoral cycles in government employment: Evidence from US gubernatorial elections," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 122-138.
    15. Stephan Klasen & Janneke Pieters, 2015. "What Explains the Stagnation of Female Labor Force Participation in Urban India?," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 29(3), pages 449-478.
    16. Sam Asher & Paul Novosad, 2017. "Politics and Local Economic Growth: Evidence from India," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(1), pages 229-273, January.
    17. Beg, Sabrin, 2019. "Favoritism and flooding: Political alignment and allocation of irrigation water," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 175-195.
    18. Das, Ritanjan & Dey, Subhasish & Neogi, Ranjita, 2021. "Across the stolen Ponds: The political geography of social welfare in rural eastern India," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    19. Ritika Jain, 2017. "Influence of Political Alignment and Federal Structure on Public Sector Employment: The case of India," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(1), pages 305-313.
    20. Sonali Das & Ms. Sonali Jain-Chandra & Ms. Kalpana Kochhar & Naresh Kumar, 2015. "Women Workers in India: Why So Few Among So Many?," IMF Working Papers 2015/055, International Monetary Fund.
    21. Rongili Biswas & Sugata Marjit & Velayoudom Marimoutou, 2010. "Fiscal Federalism, State Lobbying And Discretionary Finance: Evidence From India," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(1), pages 68-91, March.
    22. Andres,Luis Alberto & Dasgupta,Basab & Joseph,George & Abraham,Vinoj & Correia,Maria C., 2017. "Precarious drop : reassessing patterns of female labor force participation in India," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8024, The World Bank.
    23. Neff, Daniel & Sen, Kunal & Kling, Veronika, 2012. "The Puzzling Decline in Rural Women's Labor Force Participation in India: A Reexamination," GIGA Working Papers 196, GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bhavnani, Rikhil R. & Lacina, Bethany, 2017. "Fiscal Federalism at Work? Central Responses to Internal Migration in India," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 236-248.
    2. Gupta, Tanu & Negi, Digvijay S., 2021. "Daughter vs. Daughter-in-Law: Kinship Roles and Women's Time Use in India," 2021 Annual Meeting, August 1-3, Austin, Texas 313373, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    3. Jain, Ritika & Chatterjee, Tirtha, 2024. "Information and communication technology and female employment in India," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    4. Deshpande, Ashwini & Singh, Jitendra, 2021. "Dropping Out, Being Pushed Out or Can’t Get in? Decoding Declining Labour Force Participation of Indian Women," IZA Discussion Papers 14639, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Ashwini Deshpande & Jitendra Singh, 2021. "Dropping Out, Being Pushed out or Can't Get In? Decoding Declining Labour Force Participation of Indian Women," Working Papers 65, Ashoka University, Department of Economics.
    6. Ashwini Deshpande & Shantanu Khanna & Daksh Walia, 2024. "An Indian Enigma? Labour market impacts of the world’s largest livelihoods program," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 37(3), pages 1-20, September.
    7. Subhasish Dey & Kunal Sen, 2016. "Is partisan alignment electorally rewarding? Evidence from village council elections in India," Global Development Institute Working Paper Series esid-063-16, GDI, The University of Manchester.
    8. Sergio Naruhiko Sakurai & Maria Isabel Accoroni Theodoro, 2020. "On the relationship between political alignment and government transfers: triple differences evidence from a developing country," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(3), pages 1107-1141, March.
    9. Sonalde Desai & Omkar Joshi, 2019. "The Paradox of Declining Female Work Participation in an Era of Economic Growth," The Indian Journal of Labour Economics, Springer;The Indian Society of Labour Economics (ISLE), vol. 62(1), pages 55-71, March.
    10. Pushpendra Singh & Falguni Pattanaik, 2020. "Unfolding unpaid domestic work in India: women’s constraints, choices, and career," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 6(1), pages 1-13, December.
    11. Luisa Schneider & Daniela Wech & Matthias Wrede, 2022. "Political alignment and project funding," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 29(6), pages 1561-1589, December.
    12. Amrita Datta & Tanuka Endow & Balwant Singh Mehta, 2020. "Education, Caste and Women’s Work in India," The Indian Journal of Labour Economics, Springer;The Indian Society of Labour Economics (ISLE), vol. 63(2), pages 387-406, June.
    13. Christa N. Brunnschweiler & Samuel Kwabena Obeng, 2020. "Rewarding Allegiance: Political Alignment and Fiscal Outcomes in Local Government," University of East Anglia School of Economics Working Paper Series 2020-05, School of Economics, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK..
    14. Bajaj, Ayushi & Damodaran, Nikhil, 2022. "Consumer payment choice and the heterogeneous impact of India’s demonetization," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    15. Litschig, Stephan, 2012. "Are rules-based government programs shielded from special-interest politics? Evidence from revenue-sharing transfers in Brazil," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(11), pages 1047-1060.
    16. Ayushi Bajaj & Nikhil Damodaran, 2021. "Consumer Payment Choice and the Heterogeneous Impact of India’s Demonetization," Monash Economics Working Papers 2021-15, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    17. Das, Satadru & Gadenne, Lucie & Nandi, Tushar & Warwick, Ross, 2023. "Does going cashless make you tax-rich? Evidence from India’s demonetization experiment," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
    18. Makarin, Alexey & Piqué, Ricardo & Aragón, Fernando, 2020. "National or sub-national parties: Does party geographic scope matter?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    19. Roberto Iacono & Krishna Chaitanya Vadlamannati, 2024. "Unintended Consequences of Externally Aided Projects on Fiscal Transfers: A Subnational Study of India," CESifo Working Paper Series 11498, CESifo.
    20. Afridi, Farzana & Dinkelman, Taryn & Mahajan, Kanika, 2016. "Why Are Fewer Married Women Joining the Work Force in India? A Decomposition Analysis over Two Decades," IZA Discussion Papers 9722, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Female labour force participation; Income; Demonetisation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J16 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Gender; Non-labor Discrimination
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:asieco:v:94:y:2024:i:c:s1049007824000770. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/asieco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.