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China trade: Busting gravity's bounds

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  • Edmonds, Christopher
  • La Croix, Sumner
  • Li, Yao

Abstract

Since China's accession to the World Trade Organization in 2001, annual growth rates of its imports and exports have increased, and raised tensions between China and some of its major trading partners. Using a gravity model of trade, we find that China's orientation toward foreign trade is much greater than expected for an economy of its size and level of development. Our analysis shows that China's excessive orientation toward foreign trade ("over-trading") varies substantially across countries and we consider various explanations for the over-trading. A comparison of China's export boom with the earlier export booms of more market-based East and Southeast Asian economies shows that China's export boom has exceeded earlier booms in magnitude but not in duration. We conclude with a discussion of the likely scale of future export and import flows from and to China.

Suggested Citation

  • Edmonds, Christopher & La Croix, Sumner & Li, Yao, 2008. "China trade: Busting gravity's bounds," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(5-6), pages 455-466.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:asieco:v:19:y:2008:i:5-6:p:455-466
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    Cited by:

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    2. Michael D. Clemes & Baiding Hu & Xuedong Li, 2016. "Services and economic growth in China: an empirical analysis," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 612-627, October.
    3. Sun, Sizhong, 2012. "The role of FDI in domestic exporting: Evidence from China," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 434-441.
    4. Evelyn S. Devadason, 2013. "Whither Sub-Regional Cooperation? The CLMV Perspective," Institutions and Economies (formerly known as International Journal of Institutions and Economies), Faculty of Economics and Administration, University of Malaya, vol. 5(2), pages 1-36, July.
    5. Shahriar, Saleh & Qian, Lu & Kea, Sokvibol, 2018. "China's economic integration with the Greater Mekong Sub-region: An empirical analysis by a panel dynamic gravity model," Economics Discussion Papers 2018-44, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    6. Roberts, Ivan & Rush, Anthony, 2012. "Understanding China's demand for resource imports," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 566-579.
    7. Ivan Roberts & Anthony Rush, 2010. "Sources of Chinese Demand for Resource Commodities," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2010-08, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    8. Lauren A. Johnston & Stephen L. Morgan & Yuesheng Wang, 2015. "The Gravity of China's African Export Promise," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(6), pages 913-934, June.
    9. Mohd Rosli, 2013. "Book Review: Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) Access to Finance in Selected East Asian Economies, by Charlies Harvie, Sothea Oum and Dionisius A. Narjoko, (eds), ERIA Research Project Report 2010-1," Institutions and Economies (formerly known as International Journal of Institutions and Economies), Faculty of Economics and Administration, University of Malaya, vol. 5(2), pages 159-160, July.

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