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Impact of climate change on commercial sector air conditioning energy consumption in subtropical Hong Kong

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  • Lam, Tony N.T.
  • Wan, Kevin K.W.
  • Wong, S.L.
  • Lam, Joseph C.

Abstract

Past and future trend of electricity use for air conditioning in the entire commercial sector in subtropical climates using 1979-2008 measured meteorological data as well as predictions for 2009-2100 from a general circulation model (MIROC3.2-H) was investigated. Air conditioning consumption showed an increasing trend over the past 30Â years from 1979 to 2008. Principal component analysis (PCA) of measured and predicted monthly mean dry-bulb temperature, wet-bulb temperature and global solar radiation was conducted to determine a new climatic index Z for 1979-2008 and future 92Â years (2009-2100) based on two emissions scenarios B1 and A1B (low and medium forcing). Through regression analysis, electricity use in air conditioning for the 92-year period was estimated. For low forcing, average consumption in 2009-2038, 2039-2068 and 2069-2100 would be, respectively, 5.7%, 12.8% and 18.4% more than the 1979-2008 average, with a mean 12.5% increase for the entire 92-year period. Medium forcing showed a similar increasing trend, but 1-4% more. Standard deviations of the monthly air conditioning consumption were found to be smaller suggesting possible reduction in seasonal variations in future years.

Suggested Citation

  • Lam, Tony N.T. & Wan, Kevin K.W. & Wong, S.L. & Lam, Joseph C., 2010. "Impact of climate change on commercial sector air conditioning energy consumption in subtropical Hong Kong," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(7), pages 2321-2327, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:87:y:2010:i:7:p:2321-2327
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lam, Joseph C. & Wan, Kevin K.W. & Wong, S.L. & Lam, Tony N.T., 2010. "Long-term trends of heat stress and energy use implications in subtropical climates," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 608-612, February.
    2. Wan, Kevin K.W. & Cheung, K.L. & Yang, Liu & Lam, Joseph C., 2009. "A new variable for climate change study and implications for the built environment," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 916-919.
    3. Lam, Joseph C., 1995. "Building envelope loads and commercial sector electricity use in Hong Kong," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 189-194.
    4. Lam, Joseph C. & Tang, H.L. & Li, Danny H.W., 2008. "Seasonal variations in residential and commercial sector electricity consumption in Hong Kong," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 513-523.
    5. Lam, Joseph C. & Wan, Kevin K.W. & Cheung, K.L., 2009. "An analysis of climatic influences on chiller plant electricity consumption," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(6), pages 933-940, June.
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