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Long-term trends of heat stress and energy use implications in subtropical climates

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  • Lam, Joseph C.
  • Wan, Kevin K.W.
  • Wong, S.L.
  • Lam, Tony N.T.

Abstract

Past and future trends of human comfort in terms of heat and cold stresses under the local subtropical climates using measured meteorological data as well as predictions from general climate models were investigated. Summer discomfort showed an increasing trend (and winter discomfort a decreasing trend) over the past 41Â years from 1968 to 2008. Monthly mean minimum and maximum temperatures and moisture content predictions from a general climate model (MIROC3.2-H) were used to determine summer and winter discomfort for future years (2009-2100) based on two emissions scenarios B1 and A1B (low and medium forcing). The 92-year (2009-2100) mean cold stress would be reduced from the 41-year (1968-2008) mean value of 8.7 to about three for both emissions scenarios. The 92-year mean heat stress would be 115.9 and 120.6 for B1 and A1B, respectively, representing 31.6% and 36.9% increase over the 1968-2008 long-term average of 88.1. These suggest that the already small winter heating requirement in subtropical Hong Kong would become even more insignificant in future years, whereas the increasing trend of summer discomfort would result in more cooling demand in the built environment.

Suggested Citation

  • Lam, Joseph C. & Wan, Kevin K.W. & Wong, S.L. & Lam, Tony N.T., 2010. "Long-term trends of heat stress and energy use implications in subtropical climates," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 608-612, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:87:y:2010:i:2:p:608-612
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lam, Joseph C. & Wan, Kevin K.W. & Cheung, K.L., 2009. "An analysis of climatic influences on chiller plant electricity consumption," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(6), pages 933-940, June.
    2. Lam, Joseph C., 1996. "An analysis of residential sector energy use in Hong Kong," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 1-8.
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    Cited by:

    1. Attia, Shady & Evrard, Arnaud & Gratia, Elisabeth, 2012. "Development of benchmark models for the Egyptian residential buildings sector," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 270-284.
    2. Zhu, Dan & Tao, Shu & Wang, Rong & Shen, Huizhong & Huang, Ye & Shen, Guofeng & Wang, Bin & Li, Wei & Zhang, Yanyan & Chen, Han & Chen, Yuanchen & Liu, Junfeng & Li, Bengang & Wang, Xilong & Liu, Wenx, 2013. "Temporal and spatial trends of residential energy consumption and air pollutant emissions in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 17-24.
    3. Lam, Joseph C. & Wan, Kevin K.W. & Lam, Tony N.T. & Wong, S.L., 2010. "An analysis of future building energy use in subtropical Hong Kong," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1482-1490.
    4. Yang, Liu & Yan, Haiyan & Lam, Joseph C., 2014. "Thermal comfort and building energy consumption implications – A review," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 164-173.
    5. Kaiser, Mark J. & Pulsipher, Allan G., 2010. "Preliminary assessment of the Louisiana Home Energy Rebate Offer program using IPMVP guidelines," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 691-702, February.
    6. Wan, Kevin K.W. & Li, Danny H.W. & Lam, Joseph C., 2011. "Assessment of climate change impact on building energy use and mitigation measures in subtropical climates," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 1404-1414.
    7. Huang, Kuo-Tsang & Hwang, Ruey-Lung, 2016. "Future trends of residential building cooling energy and passive adaptation measures to counteract climate change: The case of Taiwan," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 1230-1240.
    8. Noor Muhammad Abd Rahman & Lim Chin Haw & Ahmad Fazlizan, 2021. "A Literature Review of Naturally Ventilated Public Hospital Wards in Tropical Climate Countries for Thermal Comfort and Energy Saving Improvements," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-22, January.
    9. Lam, Tony N.T. & Wan, Kevin K.W. & Wong, S.L. & Lam, Joseph C., 2010. "Impact of climate change on commercial sector air conditioning energy consumption in subtropical Hong Kong," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(7), pages 2321-2327, July.
    10. Waite, Michael & Cohen, Elliot & Torbey, Henri & Piccirilli, Michael & Tian, Yu & Modi, Vijay, 2017. "Global trends in urban electricity demands for cooling and heating," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 786-802.

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