IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/appene/v87y2010i1p236-242.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

GISELA - GIS-based evaluation of land use and agriculture market analysis under global warming

Author

Listed:
  • Mori, Shunsuke
  • Kato, Masahiro
  • Ido, Takahumi

Abstract

One of the important future issues is how agriculture production can meet the future demand increase due to the population and the income growth. Global warming would give both positive and negative impacts on them. Agriculture is often expected to supply biofuels to meet the growing transportation energy demand and the warming control policy. GISELA - GIS-based evaluation for land use and agriculture production model - is developed to evaluate the current and the potential cropland for rice, wheat, maize and soy-beans production under climate changes. We also assess the food and the feed demand based on the historical regional statistics for world into 18 regions. Finally, we assess the future food market integrating the above supply and demand conditions developing a dynamic optimization model, GISELA. Current GISELA findings are as follows: (1) potential cropland in south America will be extensively cultivated, (2) market price of wheat and soy will gradually go up while that of maize is almost stable in medium yield case, and (3) in the low-yield case, all crop prices hike rapidly in the mid of this century.

Suggested Citation

  • Mori, Shunsuke & Kato, Masahiro & Ido, Takahumi, 2010. "GISELA - GIS-based evaluation of land use and agriculture market analysis under global warming," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 236-242, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:87:y:2010:i:1:p:236-242
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306-2619(09)00242-6
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mitchell,Donald O. & Ingco,Merlinda D. & Duncan,Ronald C., 1997. "The World Food Outlook," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521589840, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Alireza Koocheki & Reza Ghorbani & Farzad Mondani & Yaser Alizade, 2011. "Pulses Production Systems in Term of Energy Use Efficiency and Economical Analysis in Iran," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 1(4), pages 95-106.
    2. Ghorbani, Reza & Mondani, Farzad & Amirmoradi, Shahram & Feizi, Hassan & Khorramdel, Surror & Teimouri, Mozhgan & Sanjani, Sara & Anvarkhah, Sepideh & Aghel, Hassan, 2011. "A case study of energy use and economical analysis of irrigated and dryland wheat production systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 283-288, January.
    3. Mori, Shunsuke, 2012. "An assessment of the potentials of nuclear power and carbon capture and storage in the long-term global warming mitigation options based on Asian Modeling Exercise scenarios," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(S3), pages 421-428.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yu, Wusheng & Hertel, Thomas W. & Preckel, Paul V. & Eales, James S., 2004. "Projecting world food demand using alternative demand systems," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 99-129, January.
    2. Sophie Drogué & Clotilde Grandval & Jean-Christophe Bureau & Hervé Guyomard & Laurence Roudart, 2006. "Panorama des analyses prospectives sur l'évolution de la sécurité alimentaire mondiale à l'horizon 2020-2030," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/54558, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    3. Graham, Brett & Tyers, Rodney, 2002. "Global Population Forecast Errors, Economic Performance and Food Demand: Preliminary Simulations," 2002 Conference (46th), February 13-15, 2002, Canberra, Australia 125091, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    4. McCalla, Alex F & Revoredo, Cesar L., 2001. "Prospects for global food security: a critical appraisal of past projections and predictions," 2020 vision discussion papers 35, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    5. Keyzer, M.A. & Merbis, M.D. & Pavel, I.F.P.W. & van Wesenbeeck, C.F.A., 2005. "Diet shifts towards meat and the effects on cereal use: can we feed the animals in 2030?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 187-202, November.
    6. Moon, Wanki & Florkowski, Wojciech J. & Beuchat, Larry R. & Resurreccion, Anna V. A. & Paraskova, Pavlina & Jordanov, Jordan & Chinnan, Manjeet S., 2002. "Food intake patterns of the unemployed and pensioners in Bulgaria," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 24(7-8), pages 621-637, November.
    7. Tey, (John) Yeong-Sheng & Shamsudin, Mad Nasir & Mohamed, Zainalabidin & Abdullah, Amin Mahir & Radam, Alias, 2008. "Demand analyses of rice in Malaysia," MPRA Paper 15062, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Yongzheng Yang, 2000. "Food Embargoes against China: Their Likelihood and Potential Consequences," Asia Pacific Economic Papers 304, Australia-Japan Research Centre, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    9. Shoemaker, Robbin A. & Harwood, Joy L. & Day-Rubenstein, Kelly A. & Dunahay, Terry & Heisey, Paul W. & Hoffman, Linwood A. & Klotz-Ingram, Cassandra & Lin, William W. & Mitchell, Lorraine & McBride, W, 2001. "Economic Issues In Agricultural Biotechnology," Agricultural Information Bulletins 33735, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    10. Gilbert, Christopher L., 2011. "Food Reserves in Developing Countries: Trade Policy Options for Improved Food Security," Price Volatility and Beyond 320199, International Centre for Trade and Sustainable Development (ICTSD).
    11. Paul E. Waggoner & Jesse H. Ausubel, 2001. "How Much Will Feeding More and Wealthier People Encroach on Forests?," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 27(2), pages 239-257, June.
    12. T.Y. Sheng & M.N. Shamsudin & Z. Mohamed & A.M. Abdullah & A. Radam, 2008. "Complete demand systems of food in Malaysia," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 54(10), pages 467-475.
    13. Masao Ogaki & Jonathan D. Ostry & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "Saving Behavior in Low- and Middle-Income Developing Countries: A Comparison," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 43(1), pages 38-71, March.
    14. Tey, (John) Yeong-Sheng, 2008. "Household expenditure on food at home in Malaysia," MPRA Paper 15031, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Yu, Wusheng & Hertel, Thomas W. & Preckel, Paul V. & Eales, James S., 2004. "Projecting world food demand using alternative demand systems," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 99-129, January.
    16. Alex F. McCalla & John Nash, 2007. "Reforming Agricultural Trade for Developing Countries : Volume 2. Quantifyng the Impact of Multilateral Trade Reform," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 13520.
    17. David, Cristina C., 1996. "Food: Is a Crisis Looming," Discussion Papers DP 1996-09, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    18. Tim Dyson & Cormac Ó Gráda, 2002. "Demography, food production and famine risks in the 21st century," Working Papers 200216, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    19. Bello, Amelia L., 2004. "Food Security, Agricultural Efficiency and Regional Integration," Discussion Papers DP 2004-38, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    20. Toma, Luiza & Mathijs, Erik & Revoredo-Giha, Cesar, 2006. "Linkages between Agriculture, Trade and the Environment in the Context of the European Union Accession," Working Papers 45991, Scotland's Rural College (formerly Scottish Agricultural College), Land Economy & Environment Research Group.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:87:y:2010:i:1:p:236-242. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.