“Gray” Prediction of Carbon Neutral Pathways in the G7 Economies by 2050

Achieving carbon neutrality is a fundamental strategy for human society to address the climate crisis proactively, and developed nations bear a significant responsibility for global emission reduction. Based on the analysis of the main actions taken by G7 countries to reduce carbon emissions, this study adopts a gray prediction model to predict the carbon emission trajectories of G7 countries until 2050. Meanwhile, this study calculates the annual ecological and artificial carbon sequestration of each country, providing a concrete analysis of the actual efforts that the G7 countries need to make in order to achieve the carbon neutrality target. The projections results show that in terms of average annual reduction rates in carbon emissions, Germany, the UK, and France demonstrate a more accelerated pace at approximately 5%. At the same time, Japan, the US, Canada, and Italy exhibit a comparatively slower range between 2% and 3%. The annual ecological carbon sequestration for Italy, Germany, the U.K., Canada, France, Japan, and the U.S. stands at approximately 54, 64.8, 43.2, 390, 99, 29.5, and 240 MtCO2e, respectively. Consequently, France and Canada appear well-positioned to attain carbon neutrality by 2050. In contrast, Italy, Germany, the United Kingdom, Japan, and the United States would need to artificially sequester 69.74, 91.47, 23.97, 494.03, and 2461.28 MtCO2e, respectively, to meet the nation-mandated carbon neutrality target by 2050.