IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/appene/v360y2024ics0306261924002411.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A novel SARCIMA model based on central difference and its application in solar power generation of China

Author

Listed:
  • Shen, Yun
  • Mao, Yaqian
  • Weng, Jiacheng
  • Wu, Chenxi
  • Wu, Haixin
  • Gu, Yangyang
  • Wang, Jianhong

Abstract

Due to the influence of exogenous factors such as weather, solar power generation shows the characteristics of instability and volatility, so the prediction of solar power generation has become especially important. In this paper, a new seasonal central difference autoregressive moving average model abbreviate as SARCIMA is proposed to accurately predict solar power generation. Firstly, the non-stationary time series is subjected to central difference until the difference series is stationary. Then, by analyzing autocorrelation images and partial autocorrelation images respectively, the number of the autoregressive term p and the moving average term q are obtained, so as to obtain the ARCIMA model. Next, the seasonal difference is combined with the ARCIMA model, thus establishing the SARCIMA model. Finally, the new model is applied to the prediction of solar power generation data exhibiting periodic characteristics and compared with five competing models. Mean absolute percentage error and residuals are separately calculated as indicators to evaluate the accuracy and stability of the models. In addition, the prediction of solar power generation in the next three months shows that the new model has better effectiveness, which provides a scientific basis for predicting solar power generation in the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Shen, Yun & Mao, Yaqian & Weng, Jiacheng & Wu, Chenxi & Wu, Haixin & Gu, Yangyang & Wang, Jianhong, 2024. "A novel SARCIMA model based on central difference and its application in solar power generation of China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 360(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:360:y:2024:i:c:s0306261924002411
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.122858
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261924002411
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.122858?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ahmad, Muhammad Waseem & Mourshed, Monjur & Rezgui, Yacine, 2018. "Tree-based ensemble methods for predicting PV power generation and their comparison with support vector regression," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 465-474.
    2. Kavasseri, Rajesh G. & Seetharaman, Krithika, 2009. "Day-ahead wind speed forecasting using f-ARIMA models," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1388-1393.
    3. Wei Li & Hui Ren & Ping Chen & Yanyang Wang & Hailong Qi, 2020. "Key Operational Issues on the Integration of Large-Scale Solar Power Generation—A Literature Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-25, November.
    4. Liang, Xinbin & Chen, Siliang & Zhu, Xu & Jin, Xinqiao & Du, Zhimin, 2023. "Domain knowledge decomposition of building energy consumption and a hybrid data-driven model for 24-h ahead predictions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 344(C).
    5. Şahin, Utkucan & Ballı, Serkan & Chen, Yan, 2021. "Forecasting seasonal electricity generation in European countries under Covid-19-induced lockdown using fractional grey prediction models and machine learning methods," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 302(C).
    6. Cadenas, Erasmo & Rivera, Wilfrido, 2010. "Wind speed forecasting in three different regions of Mexico, using a hybrid ARIMA–ANN model," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 2732-2738.
    7. Shuyu Li & Rongrong Li, 2017. "Comparison of Forecasting Energy Consumption in Shandong, China Using the ARIMA Model, GM Model, and ARIMA-GM Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(7), pages 1-19, July.
    8. He, Lin & Wang, Yangyang & Wei, Yujiang & Wang, Mingwei & Hu, Xiaosong & Shi, Qin, 2022. "An adaptive central difference Kalman filter approach for state of charge estimation by fractional order model of lithium-ion battery," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 244(PA).
    9. Amith Khandakar & Muhammad E. H. Chowdhury & Monzure- Khoda Kazi & Kamel Benhmed & Farid Touati & Mohammed Al-Hitmi & Antonio Jr S. P. Gonzales, 2019. "Machine Learning Based Photovoltaics (PV) Power Prediction Using Different Environmental Parameters of Qatar," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(14), pages 1-19, July.
    10. Liu, Hui & Tian, Hong-qi & Li, Yan-fei, 2012. "Comparison of two new ARIMA-ANN and ARIMA-Kalman hybrid methods for wind speed prediction," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 415-424.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zhao, Yongning & Ye, Lin & Li, Zhi & Song, Xuri & Lang, Yansheng & Su, Jian, 2016. "A novel bidirectional mechanism based on time series model for wind power forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 793-803.
    2. Wang, Jianzhou & Hu, Jianming & Ma, Kailiang & Zhang, Yixin, 2015. "A self-adaptive hybrid approach for wind speed forecasting," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 374-385.
    3. Neeraj Bokde & Andrés Feijóo & Nadhir Al-Ansari & Siyu Tao & Zaher Mundher Yaseen, 2020. "The Hybridization of Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Forecasting Models: Application of Short-Term Wind Speed and Power Modeling," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-23, April.
    4. Tascikaraoglu, A. & Uzunoglu, M., 2014. "A review of combined approaches for prediction of short-term wind speed and power," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 243-254.
    5. Wang, Jian-Zhou & Wang, Yun & Jiang, Ping, 2015. "The study and application of a novel hybrid forecasting model – A case study of wind speed forecasting in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 472-488.
    6. Sun, Fei & Jin, Tongdan, 2022. "A hybrid approach to multi-step, short-term wind speed forecasting using correlated features," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 186(C), pages 742-754.
    7. Liu, Hui & Tian, Hong-qi & Liang, Xi-feng & Li, Yan-fei, 2015. "Wind speed forecasting approach using secondary decomposition algorithm and Elman neural networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 183-194.
    8. Erasmo Cadenas & Wilfrido Rivera & Rafael Campos-Amezcua & Christopher Heard, 2016. "Wind Speed Prediction Using a Univariate ARIMA Model and a Multivariate NARX Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-15, February.
    9. Camelo, Henrique do Nascimento & Lucio, Paulo Sérgio & Leal Junior, João Bosco Verçosa & Carvalho, Paulo Cesar Marques de & Santos, Daniel von Glehn dos, 2018. "Innovative hybrid models for forecasting time series applied in wind generation based on the combination of time series models with artificial neural networks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 347-357.
    10. Wang, Jianzhou & Qin, Shanshan & Zhou, Qingping & Jiang, Haiyan, 2015. "Medium-term wind speeds forecasting utilizing hybrid models for three different sites in Xinjiang, China," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 91-101.
    11. Jiang, Ping & Yang, Hufang & Heng, Jiani, 2019. "A hybrid forecasting system based on fuzzy time series and multi-objective optimization for wind speed forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C), pages 786-801.
    12. Wang, Yun & Wang, Haibo & Srinivasan, Dipti & Hu, Qinghua, 2019. "Robust functional regression for wind speed forecasting based on Sparse Bayesian learning," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 43-60.
    13. Wu, Xuedong & Zhu, Zhiyu & Su, Xunliang & Fan, Shaosheng & Du, Zhaoping & Chang, Yanchao & Zeng, Qingjun, 2015. "A study of single multiplicative neuron model with nonlinear filters for hourly wind speed prediction," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 194-201.
    14. Liu, Xiaolei & Lin, Zi & Feng, Ziming, 2021. "Short-term offshore wind speed forecast by seasonal ARIMA - A comparison against GRU and LSTM," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    15. Zonggui Yao & Chen Wang, 2018. "A Hybrid Model Based on A Modified Optimization Algorithm and An Artificial Intelligence Algorithm for Short-Term Wind Speed Multi-Step Ahead Forecasting," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-33, May.
    16. Koo, Junmo & Han, Gwon Deok & Choi, Hyung Jong & Shim, Joon Hyung, 2015. "Wind-speed prediction and analysis based on geological and distance variables using an artificial neural network: A case study in South Korea," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 93(P2), pages 1296-1302.
    17. Zhang, Shuai & Chen, Yong & Xiao, Jiuhong & Zhang, Wenyu & Feng, Ruijun, 2021. "Hybrid wind speed forecasting model based on multivariate data secondary decomposition approach and deep learning algorithm with attention mechanism," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 688-704.
    18. Hui Wang & Jingxuan Sun & Jianbo Sun & Jilong Wang, 2017. "Using Random Forests to Select Optimal Input Variables for Short-Term Wind Speed Forecasting Models," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-13, October.
    19. Yulong Bai & Lihong Tang & Manhong Fan & Xiaoyan Ma & Yang Yang, 2020. "Fuzzy First-Order Transition-Rules-Trained Hybrid Forecasting System for Short-Term Wind Speed Forecasts," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(13), pages 1-21, June.
    20. Jiang, Yu & Song, Zhe & Kusiak, Andrew, 2013. "Very short-term wind speed forecasting with Bayesian structural break model," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 637-647.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:360:y:2024:i:c:s0306261924002411. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.