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Lost generation: Reflections on resilience and flexibility from an energy system architecture perspective

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  • Lowe, Robert J.
  • Chiu, Lai Fong
  • Pye, Steve
  • Cassarino, Tiziano Gallo
  • Scamman, Daniel
  • Solano-Rodriguez, Baltazar

Abstract

Whole energy system modelling is a valuable tool to support the development of policy to decarbonise energy systems, and has been used extensively in the UK for this purpose. However, quantitative insights produced by such models necessarily omit potentially important features of physical and engineering reality. The authors argue that important socio-technical insights can be gained by studying critical events such as the loss of 2.1 GW generation from the electricity system of Great Britain on 9th August 2019, in conjunction with literature on the behaviour of complex systems. Among these insights is the idea that models of the operation and evolution of energy systems can never be complete. Both system behaviour (operation) and the emergence and evolution of structure in such systems are formally uncomputable. This provides a starting point for a discussion of the need for additional tools, drawn from the System Architecture literature, to support the design and realisation of future, fully-decarbonised systems with high penetrations of renewable energy. Desirable properties of System Architectures, including current and future Energy System Architectures, are discussed. These include resilience and flexibility, for which there is an extensive literature. They also include the properties of comprehensibility, which helps to make complex systems easier to operate, and of evolvability, for which a working definition is offered.

Suggested Citation

  • Lowe, Robert J. & Chiu, Lai Fong & Pye, Steve & Cassarino, Tiziano Gallo & Scamman, Daniel & Solano-Rodriguez, Baltazar, 2021. "Lost generation: Reflections on resilience and flexibility from an energy system architecture perspective," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 298(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:298:y:2021:i:c:s0306261921006085
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.117179
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hall, Lisa M.H. & Buckley, Alastair R., 2016. "A review of energy systems models in the UK: Prevalent usage and categorisation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 607-628.
    2. Sergey V. Buldyrev & Roni Parshani & Gerald Paul & H. Eugene Stanley & Shlomo Havlin, 2010. "Catastrophic cascade of failures in interdependent networks," Nature, Nature, vol. 464(7291), pages 1025-1028, April.
    3. Daniel Scamman & Baltazar Solano-Rodríguez & Steve Pye & Lai Fong Chiu & Andrew Z. P. Smith & Tiziano Gallo Cassarino & Mark Barrett & Robert Lowe, 2020. "Heat Decarbonisation Modelling Approaches in the UK: An Energy System Architecture Perspective," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-28, April.
    4. Masako Darrough & Yong Gyu Lee & Hyung Il Oh, 2019. "Classification shifting within non-recurring items," Asia-Pacific Journal of Accounting & Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(3), pages 185-206, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Lai Fong Chiu & Robert John Lowe, 2022. "Eliciting Stakeholders’ Requirements for Future Energy Systems: A Case Study of Heat Decarbonisation in the UK," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-21, October.
    2. Lowe, R.J. & Drummond, P., 2022. "Solar, wind and logistic substitution in global energy supply to 2050 – Barriers and implications," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).

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