IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/appene/v285y2021ics0306261921000507.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Cost recovery and investment barriers for renewables under market manipulation of thermal collusion

Author

Listed:
  • Fang, Xichen
  • Guo, Hongye
  • Zhang, Da
  • Chen, Qixin

Abstract

Last decade has witnessed a booming development in renewables and significant changes in the generation mix around the world. Given their relatively low variable costs, renewables are expected to be cleared first in the electricity market and earn profit margins under a marginal pricing mechanism to recover their fixed costs. However, some strategic price manipulation behaviors may distort the spot price and cause market failure. In this article, we show that thermals could exploit cross-product arbitrage possibilities through long-term contracts under high renewable penetration, and thereby lower spot prices and squeeze renewable profit margins, discouraging future renewable investments. We build a bi-level model to study strategic behaviors of thermals discussed above and their impacts on the market equilibrium. The model can be recast as a mathematical problem with equilibrium constraints (MPEC) and further formulated as a mixed integer linear programming (MILP) after proper linearization. We then use internal rates of return (IRR) and minimal acceptable rates of return (MARR) to evaluate impacts of thermal arbitrage on renewable investments. A case study is performed to validate the model using the CAISO data. Finally, we provide policy recommendations to regulate this specific type of strategic behaviors.

Suggested Citation

  • Fang, Xichen & Guo, Hongye & Zhang, Da & Chen, Qixin, 2021. "Cost recovery and investment barriers for renewables under market manipulation of thermal collusion," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 285(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:285:y:2021:i:c:s0306261921000507
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.116487
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261921000507
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.116487?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Helman, Udi, 2006. "Market power monitoring and mitigation in the US wholesale power markets," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 877-904.
    2. Kristiansen, T., 2004. "Pricing of Contracts for Difference in the Nordic market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1075-1085, June.
    3. de Maere d’Aertrycke, Gauthier & Ehrenmann, Andreas & Smeers, Yves, 2017. "Investment with incomplete markets for risk: The need for long-term contracts," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 571-583.
    4. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/f6h8764enu2lskk9p544jc8op is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Anderson, Edward J. & Hu, Xinin & Winchester, Donald, 2007. "Forward contracts in electricity markets: The Australian experience," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 3089-3103, May.
    6. James B. Bushnell & Erin T. Mansur & Celeste Saravia, 2008. "Vertical Arrangements, Market Structure, and Competition: An Analysis of Restructured US Electricity Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 237-266, March.
    7. Palacio, Sebastián M., 2020. "Predicting collusive patterns in a liberalized electricity market with mandatory auctions of forward contracts," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    8. Brancucci Martinez-Anido, Carlo & Brinkman, Greg & Hodge, Bri-Mathias, 2016. "The impact of wind power on electricity prices," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 474-487.
    9. Nicolli, Francesco & Vona, Francesco, 2019. "Energy market liberalization and renewable energy policies in OECD countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 853-867.
    10. Paul L. Joskow, 2011. "Comparing the Costs of Intermittent and Dispatchable Electricity Generating Technologies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(3), pages 238-241, May.
    11. Mendicino, Luca & Menniti, Daniele & Pinnarelli, Anna & Sorrentino, Nicola, 2019. "Corporate power purchase agreement: Formulation of the related levelized cost of energy and its application to a real life case study," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 253(C), pages 1-1.
    12. Bidard, Christian, 1999. "Fixed capital and internal rate of return," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 523-541, May.
    13. Woo, C.K. & Moore, J. & Schneiderman, B. & Ho, T. & Olson, A. & Alagappan, L. & Chawla, K. & Toyama, N. & Zarnikau, J., 2016. "Merit-order effects of renewable energy and price divergence in California’s day-ahead and real-time electricity markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 299-312.
    14. Richard Grieveson & Julia Grübler & Sebastian Petric & Leon Podkaminer, 2019. "Monthly Report No. 10/2019," wiiw Monthly Reports 2019-10, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    15. Coester, Andreas & Hofkes, Marjan W. & Papyrakis, Elissaios, 2018. "Economics of renewable energy expansion and security of supply: A dynamic simulation of the German electricity market," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 231(C), pages 1268-1284.
    16. Green, Richard, 2006. "Market power mitigation in the UK power market," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 76-89, June.
    17. Heuberger, Clara F. & Rubin, Edward S. & Staffell, Iain & Shah, Nilay & Mac Dowell, Niall, 2017. "Power capacity expansion planning considering endogenous technology cost learning," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 831-845.
    18. Richard Grieveson & Julia Grübler & Doris Hanzl-Weiss, 2019. "Monthly Report No. 9/2019," wiiw Monthly Reports 2019-09, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    19. Pablo-Romero, María del P. & Sánchez-Braza, Antonio & Salvador-Ponce, Jesús & Sánchez-Labrador, Natalia, 2017. "An overview of feed-in tariffs, premiums and tenders to promote electricity from biogas in the EU-28," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 1366-1379.
    20. Alexandra Bykova & Leon Podkaminer & Oliver Reiter & Robert Stehrer, 2019. "Monthly Report No. 5/2019," wiiw Monthly Reports 2019-05, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    21. Woo, C.K. & King, M. & Tishler, A. & Chow, L.C.H., 2006. "Costs of electricity deregulation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 747-768.
    22. Richard Grieveson & Julia Grübler & Peter Havlik & Roman Stöllinger, 2019. "Monthly Report No. 1/2019," wiiw Monthly Reports 2019-01, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    23. Woo, C.K. & Horowitz, I. & Moore, J. & Pacheco, A., 2011. "The impact of wind generation on the electricity spot-market price level and variance: The Texas experience," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(7), pages 3939-3944, July.
    24. Tranberg, Bo & Hansen, Rasmus Thrane & Catania, Leopoldo, 2020. "Managing volumetric risk of long-term power purchase agreements," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    25. Gan, Lin & Eskeland, Gunnar S. & Kolshus, Hans H., 2007. "Green electricity market development: Lessons from Europe and the US," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 144-155, January.
    26. Gauthier DE MAERE D’AERTRYCKE & Andreas EHRENMANN & Yves SMEERS, 2017. "Investment with incomplete markets for risk: the need for long-term contracts," LIDAM Reprints CORE 2849, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    27. Ueckerdt, Falko & Hirth, Lion & Luderer, Gunnar & Edenhofer, Ottmar, 2013. "System LCOE: What are the costs of variable renewables?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 61-75.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Li, Junjie & Zhang, Yueling & Yang, Yanli & Zhang, Xiaomei & Wang, Nana & Zheng, Yonghong & Tian, Yajun & Xie, Kechang, 2022. "Life cycle assessment and techno-economic analysis of ethanol production via coal and its competitors: A comparative study," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 312(C).
    2. Fang, Xichen & Guo, Hongye & Zheng, Kedi & Liu, Shuangquan & Chen, Qixin, 2024. "Real-time capacity cost obligations design in high-renewables energy markets," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Javier L'opez Prol & Wolf-Peter Schill, 2020. "The Economics of Variable Renewables and Electricity Storage," Papers 2012.15371, arXiv.org.
    2. He, Sylvia Y. & Kuo, Yong-Hong & Sun, Ka Kit, 2022. "The spatial planning of public electric vehicle charging infrastructure in a high-density city using a contextualised location-allocation model," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 21-44.
    3. Simshauser, Paul, 2018. "On intermittent renewable generation & the stability of Australia's National Electricity Market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 1-19.
    4. Herz, Benedikt & Mejer, Malwina, 2021. "The effect of design protection on price and price dispersion: Evidence from automotive spare parts," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    5. Kalka, Regine & Leven, Mats, "undated". "Abo-Modelle in der Automobilbranche aus Kundensicht [Consumer Perception of Subscription Models in the Automotive Industry]," Duesseldorf Working Papers in Applied Management and Economics 55, Duesseldorf University of Applied Sciences.
    6. Keppler, Jan Horst & Quemin, Simon & Saguan, Marcelo, 2022. "Why the sustainable provision of low-carbon electricity needs hybrid markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    7. Csereklyei, Zsuzsanna & Qu, Songze & Ancev, Tihomir, 2019. "The effect of wind and solar power generation on wholesale electricity prices in Australia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 358-369.
    8. Simshauser, P., 2020. "Merchant utilities and boundaries of the firm: vertical integration in energy-only markets," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2039, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    9. Bell, William Paul & Wild, Phillip & Foster, John & Hewson, Michael, 2017. "Revitalising the wind power induced merit order effect to reduce wholesale and retail electricity prices in Australia," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 224-241.
    10. Simshauser, Paul & Tian, Yuan & Whish-Wilson, Patrick, 2015. "Vertical integration in energy-only electricity markets," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 35-56.
    11. Richard Meade & Seini O’Connor, 2011. "Comparison of Long-term Contracts and Vertical Integration in Decentralized Electricity Markets," Chapters, in: Jean-Michel Glachant & Dominique Finon & Adrien de Hauteclocque (ed.), Competition, Contracts and Electricity Markets, chapter 4, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    12. Muñoz, Francisco D. & Suazo-Martínez, Carlos & Pereira, Eduardo & Moreno, Rodrigo, 2021. "Electricity market design for low-carbon and flexible systems: Room for improvement in Chile," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 148(PB).
    13. Hirth, Lion, 2013. "The market value of variable renewables," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 218-236.
    14. Mills, Andrew D. & Levin, Todd & Wiser, Ryan & Seel, Joachim & Botterud, Audun, 2020. "Impacts of variable renewable energy on wholesale markets and generating assets in the United States: A review of expectations and evidence," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    15. Woo, C.K. & Shiu, A. & Liu, Y. & Luo, X. & Zarnikau, J., 2018. "Consumption effects of an electricity decarbonization policy: Hong Kong," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 887-902.
    16. Paul Simshauser, 2019. "On the Stability of Energy-Only Markets with Government-Initiated Contracts-for-Differences," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(13), pages 1-24, July.
    17. Cao, K.H. & Qi, H.S. & Tsai, C.H. & Woo, C.K. & Zarnikau, J., 2021. "Energy trading efficiency in the US Midcontinent electricity markets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 302(C).
    18. Simshauser, Paul, 2019. "Missing money, missing policy and Resource Adequacy in Australia's National Electricity Market," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 1-1.
    19. Glenk, Gunther & Reichelstein, Stefan, 2021. "Intermittent versus dispatchable power sources: An integrated competitive assessment," ZEW Discussion Papers 21-065, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    20. López Prol, Javier & Steininger, Karl W. & Zilberman, David, 2020. "The cannibalization effect of wind and solar in the California wholesale electricity market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:285:y:2021:i:c:s0306261921000507. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.