Comparing different support schemes for renewable electricity in the scope of an energy systems analysis

The present analysis illustrates how energy system models can play an important role in the long-term evaluation of support schemes for renewable electricity. Methodological approaches for the explicit representation of such instruments are presented both for price-based and quantity-based systems. In the subsequent scenario comparison, the current German feed-in tariffs (FIT) are contrasted with several alternative support mechanisms. With the current scheme, renewable generation is increased to almost 46% of gross electricity consumption in 2020 and 54% in 2030 associated with a rise in the surcharge on consumer electricity prices of 40% between 2011 and 2020. By switching to a technology–neutral certificate system which promotes only the most cost-efficient generation and adheres to the political targets renewable generation costs could be lowered by more than €200 billion between 2013 and 2030. At the same time, it has to be kept in mind that technology–neutral systems tend to cause a higher cost burden for electricity consumers. The greatest cost reduction can be achieved under a technology-specific quantity-based system with a decrease in cumulated FIT differential costs of €68 billion and of €416 billion in total energy system costs between 2013 and 2030 compared to the current system.