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Disease persistence and serotype coexistence: An expected feature of human mobility

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  • Vilches, T.N.
  • Esteva, L.
  • Ferreira, C.P.

Abstract

We present a stochastic model that mimics dengue transmission when two serotypes of the virus are circulating in a human population connected by a Watts–Strogatz complex network that reflects social interactions (human mobility). The influence of the number of connections per vertex and the network topology on the epidemics is analyzed. The first relation displays a sigmoid curve, while the second one shows that the increase in the network disorder facilitates disease spreading and serotype coexistence. The disease transmission thresholds for three network topology (regular, small-world and random) were obtained. Numerical results show that when coexistence of serotypes is a feasible outcome, negative correlation between the temporal evolution of the two serotype is more likely to occur. This could explain serotype dominance in consecutive epidemics.

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  • Vilches, T.N. & Esteva, L. & Ferreira, C.P., 2019. "Disease persistence and serotype coexistence: An expected feature of human mobility," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 355(C), pages 161-172.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:apmaco:v:355:y:2019:i:c:p:161-172
    DOI: 10.1016/j.amc.2019.02.061
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Cristopher Moore & M. E. J. Newman, 2000. "Epidemics and Percolation in Small-World Networks," Working Papers 00-01-002, Santa Fe Institute.
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    Cited by:

    1. Nie, Wei-Peng & Cai, Shi-Min & Zhao, Zhi-Dan & Zhou, Tao, 2022. "Revealing mobility pattern of taxi movements with its travel trajectory," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 598(C).

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