Enhancing wheat protein through low-water-fertility under climate change without yield penalty

Efforts to enhance wheat quality without compromising yield are imperative in the context of climate change. However, the quantification of management measures that simultaneously elevate wheat protein concentration, especially its components, while maintaining yield has been scarcely addressed due to its inherent complexity. In this study, we investigated the impact of various combinations of sowing dates, nitrogen fertilizer, and irrigation on improving the protein concentration of strong gluten winter wheat (Jimai 20) using a validated wheat grain protein component simulation model in Tai'an, Shandong. Our results indicate that climate change between 2031 and 2060 is anticipated to cause a significant decrease in wheat yield and an increase in wheat protein concentration compared to the period from 1981 to 2010. Albumin and globulin are projected to decrease, while gliadin and glutenin are expected to increase, respectively. The average glutenin-to-gliadin ratio in the baseline is 1.096, whereas in scenarios SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5, it is 1.093 and 1.102, respectively. Adapted measures can effectively synergize to enhance both wheat protein quality and yield under climate change. Specifically, delaying sowing and reducing nitrogen application to 210–240 kg·ha−1 with 200–240 mm of irrigation contribute to maintaining yields at the current conventional treatment level. Furthermore, these practices result in a 3.89 % and 0.13 % increase in grain protein concentration, and a 1.19 % and 6.02 % enhancement in the glutenin-to-gliadin ratio under scenarios SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5, respectively, compared to conventional treatments. This comprehensive analysis provides valuable insights into practical strategies for synergistically improving wheat yield and protein quality in the face of climate change.