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Food security outcomes in agricultural systems models: Case examples and priority information needs

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  • Nicholson, Charles F.
  • Stephens, Emma C.
  • Kopainsky, Birgit
  • Thornton, Philip K.
  • Jones, Andrew D.
  • Parsons, David
  • Garrett, James

Abstract

Analyses of food security with agricultural systems models often focus on indicators of food availability, with limited treatment of the other three dimensions: food access, stability and utilization. We illustrate how three indicators of access (food consumption expenditures, a food insecurity scale and dietary diversity) and their stability can be incorporated into a dynamic household-level model of a maize-based production system in the Kenya highlands and a dynamic regional model of sheep production and marketing in Mexico. Although stylized due to limits on empirical evidence, the analyses suggest that inclusion of multiple access indicators can provide insights because the indicators respond differently to production shocks, demand growth and programs providing production subsidies. We also illustrate how to examine stability of food security outcomes in response to shocks using metrics of hardness (ability to withstand shocks) and elasticity (ability to return to previous conditions). The data required for more widespread empirical implementation of these methods include measurement—preferably at frequent intervals over time—of food access indicators, but also their determinants and linkages to outcomes in agricultural systems models. Analyses of food access and stability will be most valuable for assessments of food security impacts of climate change, when food systems are undergoing transformative change and to identify priority interventions and target audiences.

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  • Nicholson, Charles F. & Stephens, Emma C. & Kopainsky, Birgit & Thornton, Philip K. & Jones, Andrew D. & Parsons, David & Garrett, James, 2021. "Food security outcomes in agricultural systems models: Case examples and priority information needs," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:agisys:v:188:y:2021:i:c:s0308521x2030891x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2020.103030
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. David C. Lane & Birgit Kopainsky & Hugo Herrera, 2017. "From Metaphor to Practice: Operationalizing the Analysis of Resilience Using System Dynamics Modelling," Systems Research and Behavioral Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(4), pages 444-462, July.
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    6. Nicholson, Charles F. & Stephens, Emma C. & Kopainsky, Birgit & Jones, Andrew D. & Parsons, David & Garrett, James, 2021. "Food security outcomes in agricultural systems models: Current status and recommended improvements," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    7. Brown, Douglas R. & Stephens, Emma C. & Ouma, James Okuro & Murithi, Festus M. & Barrett, Christopher B., 2006. "Livelihood strategies in the rural Kenyan highlands," African Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, African Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 1(1), pages 1-16, December.
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    6. Abrhám, Josef & Vošta, Milan & Čajka, Peter & Rubáček, Filip, 2021. "The specifics of selected agricultural commodities in international trade," Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, vol. 7(2), June.
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