IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/agisys/v174y2019icp1-10.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The value of seasonal climate forecasts for Australian agriculture

Author

Listed:
  • Parton, Kevin A.
  • Crean, Jason
  • Hayman, Peter

Abstract

Seasonal Climate Forecasts (SCFs) have been proposed as a method of reducing the risk associated with agricultural production. As such, their use should improve the profitability of agriculture either through increasing gains from better seasons or reducing losses in dry seasons. Australian agriculture is vulnerable to climate variability and the potential role of SCF has been recognised since the early 1980s. Since then many studies have been completed, with the majority estimating that there is positive value for farms from the use of SCFs. We set out to synthesise the results of 86 studies from 1979 to 2018 in order to draw out key lessons about the extent of value, major drivers of this value, and research gaps, with the aim of informing future investments in seasonal climate forecasting. Using descriptive statistics as a basis, the first key result was the wide range of estimates of value (from about -$21/ha/year to $258/ha/year in 2017 Australian dollars). Second, value was shown to be associated with several influences, such as the type of forecast, the agricultural activity for which the forecast was used, and method of estimating the value. Third, by using meta-analysis more precision was developed. This showed, for example, that the estimated value of experimental SCFs was on average about $29/ha/year more than an operational forecast, that SCFs used for cotton production had a mean estimated value that was approximately $34/ha/year higher than for mixed farming, and that in terms of method of estimation, farm-level analyses returned mean estimates of SCFs that were $32/ha/year less than for field-level analyses. Finally, notwithstanding the fact that many estimates have been made of the value of SCFs, there is still much research to be done. First, some 53% of the estimates concern wheat production, so that other areas of Australian agriculture remain under-represented. These other areas are worthy of further study. Second, while we show that method of analysis affects the estimates obtained for the value of SCFs, the reasons for this need to be examined further. Risk is one aspect of the method of estimation. Since SCFs are a means of combatting risk in agriculture, we suggest that some attention should be given to the method of incorporating risk into estimating the value of SCFs. Robust and transparent methods for economic valuation not only assist in the allocation of scarce resources, but also bridge the divide between science and decision makers.

Suggested Citation

  • Parton, Kevin A. & Crean, Jason & Hayman, Peter, 2019. "The value of seasonal climate forecasts for Australian agriculture," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 1-10.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:agisys:v:174:y:2019:i:c:p:1-10
    DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2019.04.005
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0308521X18314318
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.agsy.2019.04.005?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kouadio, Louis & Tixier, Philippe & Byrareddy, Vivekananda & Marcussen, Torben & Mushtaq, Shahbaz & Rapidel, Bruno & Stone, Roger, 2021. "Performance of a process-based model for predicting robusta coffee yield at the regional scale in Vietnam," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 443(C).
    2. Rebecca Darbyshire & Jason Crean & Michael Cashen & Muhuddin Rajin Anwar & Kim M Broadfoot & Marja Simpson & David H Cobon & Christa Pudmenzky & Louis Kouadio & Shreevatsa Kodur, 2020. "Insights into the value of seasonal climate forecasts to agriculture," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 64(4), pages 1034-1058, October.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:agisys:v:174:y:2019:i:c:p:1-10. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/agsy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.