IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/agisys/v164y2018icp58-70.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Predicting local-scale impact of climate change on rice yield and soil organic carbon sequestration: A case study in Roi Et Province, Northeast Thailand

Author

Listed:
  • Arunrat, Noppol
  • Pumijumnong, Nathsuda
  • Hatano, Ryusuke

Abstract

Climate change poses a serious threat to rice production and soil quality in tropical monsoon areas where it is the lifeline of regional food security. In this study, the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model was evaluated for the reliability of model calibration and validation procedures using local-scale data. The model was then employed to evaluate the possible impact of climate change on rice yield and soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration in Roi Et Province, Northeast Thailand. The dominant factors that influence the changes in rice yield and SOC sequestration were identified. Four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) and Sixteen General Circulation Models under four future time periods; near future (2020–2039), mid future (2040–2059), far future (2060–2079), and very far future (2080–2099) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) were used as future climate projections. The findings revealed that climate change will impact rice yields positively, which will benefit farmers, especially in rain-fed areas, by +2.6% (RCP8.5: 2080–2099) to +22.7% (RCP6.0: 2080–2099). Rice yields in all case tend to increase significantly by +0.7% (RCP8.5: 2060–2079) to +18.8% (RCP6.0: 2080–2099), with the exception of 2080–2099 under RCP8.5, which results in a decline of rice yield by −8.4%. The precipitation is the most important factor for rice yield in this area. Although rising temperatures will bring a slight rice yield reduction, its impact will be negated by large amounts of increased CO2 concentration and precipitation. Conversely, SOC decreased significantly in all time periods. The highest decreased SOC was a -32.0% decline under RCP8.5 in the very far future. This is because rises in temperature and precipitation, with precipitation being the most important driver, negated the enrichment of CO2 fertilization, resulting in accelerated SOC decomposition rates, which may increase nitrogen availability to the soil and increase yield.

Suggested Citation

  • Arunrat, Noppol & Pumijumnong, Nathsuda & Hatano, Ryusuke, 2018. "Predicting local-scale impact of climate change on rice yield and soil organic carbon sequestration: A case study in Roi Et Province, Northeast Thailand," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 58-70.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:agisys:v:164:y:2018:i:c:p:58-70
    DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2018.04.001
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0308521X1730416X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.agsy.2018.04.001?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bhattarai, Mukesh Dev & Secchi, Silvia & Schoof, Justin, 2017. "Projecting corn and soybeans yields under climate change in a Corn Belt watershed," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 90-99.
    2. Bocchiola, D., 2015. "Impact of potential climate change on crop yield and water footprint of rice in the Po valley of Italy," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 223-237.
    3. Gaiser, Thomas & Stahr, Karl & Billen, Norbert & Mohammad, Mohammad Abdel-Razek, 2008. "Modeling carbon sequestration under zero tillage at the regional scale. I. The effect of soil erosion," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 218(1), pages 110-120.
    4. Xiong, Wei & Balkovič, Juraj & van der Velde, Marijn & Zhang, Xuesong & Izaurralde, R. César & Skalský, Rastislav & Lin, Erda & Mueller, Nathan & Obersteiner, Michael, 2014. "A calibration procedure to improve global rice yield simulations with EPIC," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 273(C), pages 128-139.
    5. Detlef Vuuren & Jae Edmonds & Mikiko Kainuma & Keywan Riahi & Allison Thomson & Kathy Hibbard & George Hurtt & Tom Kram & Volker Krey & Jean-Francois Lamarque & Toshihiko Masui & Malte Meinshausen & N, 2011. "The representative concentration pathways: an overview," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 5-31, November.
    6. Akpalu, Wisdom & Hassan, Rashid M. & Ringler, Claudia, 2008. "Climate variability and maize yield in South Africa: Results from GME and MELE methods," IFPRI discussion papers 843, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    7. Xiong, Wei & Holman, Ian & Conway, Declan & Lin, Erda & Li, Yue, 2008. "A crop model cross calibration for use in regional climate impacts studies," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 213(3), pages 365-380.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Tsujimoto, K. & Kuriya, N. & Ohta, T. & Homma, K. & Im, M.So, 2022. "Quantifying the GCM-related uncertainty for climate change impact assessment of rainfed rice production in Cambodia by a combined hydrologic - rice growth model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 464(C).
    2. Diego Portalanza & Finbarr G. Horgan & Valeria Pohlmann & Santiago Vianna Cuadra & Malena Torres-Ulloa & Eduardo Alava & Simone Ferraz & Angelica Durigon, 2022. "Potential Impact of Future Climates on Rice Production in Ecuador Determined Using Kobayashi’s ‘Very Simple Model’," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-16, November.
    3. Xinyi Shen & Junwei Ma & Yuqian Li & Yijia Li & Xinghui Xia, 2022. "The Effects of Multiple Global Change Factors on Soil Nutrients across China: A Meta-Analysis," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(22), pages 1-16, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Food and Agricultural Organization [FAO], 2016. "Climate Change and Food Systems: Global Assessments and Implications for Food Security and Trade," Working Papers id:8512, eSocialSciences.
    2. Kieu N. Le & Manoj K. Jha & Jaehak Jeong & Philip W. Gassman & Manuel R. Reyes & Luca Doro & Dat Q. Tran & Lyda Hok, 2018. "Evaluation of Long-Term SOC and Crop Productivity within Conservation Systems Using GFDL CM2.1 and EPIC," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-17, July.
    3. Gupta, Rishabh & Mishra, Ashok, 2019. "Climate change induced impact and uncertainty of rice yield of agro-ecological zones of India," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 1-11.
    4. Pascalle Smith & Georg Heinrich & Martin Suklitsch & Andreas Gobiet & Markus Stoffel & Jürg Fuhrer, 2014. "Station-scale bias correction and uncertainty analysis for the estimation of irrigation water requirements in the Swiss Rhone catchment under climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 127(3), pages 521-534, December.
    5. T.M.L. Wigley, 2018. "The Paris warming targets: emissions requirements and sea level consequences," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 147(1), pages 31-45, March.
    6. Islam, AFM Tariqul & Islam, AKM Saiful & Islam, GM Tarekul & Bala, Sujit Kumar & Salehin, Mashfiqus & Choudhury, Apurba Kanti & Dey, Nepal C. & Hossain, Akbar, 2022. "Adaptation strategies to increase water productivity of wheat under changing climate," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 264(C).
    7. Hwang, In Chang, 2013. "Stochastic Kaya model and its applications," MPRA Paper 55099, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Roson, Roberto & Damania, Richard, 2016. "Simulating the Macroeconomic Impact of Future Water Scarcity an Assessment of Alternative Scenarios," Conference papers 332687, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    9. Le Bars, Dewi, 2018. "Uncertainty in sea level rise projections due to the dependence between contributors," Earth Arxiv uvw3s, Center for Open Science.
    10. Taylor, Chris & Cullen, Brendan & D'Occhio, Michael & Rickards, Lauren & Eckard, Richard, 2018. "Trends in wheat yields under representative climate futures: Implications for climate adaptation," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 1-10.
    11. Hamdi-Cherif, Meriem & Waisman, Henri & Guivarch, Céline & Hourcade, Jean-Charles, 2012. "Mitigation costs in second-best economies: time profile of emission reductions and sequencing of accompanying measures," Conference papers 332206, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    12. Schaeffer, Michiel & Gohar, Laila & Kriegler, Elmar & Lowe, Jason & Riahi, Keywan & van Vuuren, Detlef, 2015. "Mid- and long-term climate projections for fragmented and delayed-action scenarios," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 90(PA), pages 257-268.
    13. Kokou Amega & Yendoubé Laré & Ramchandra Bhandari & Yacouba Moumouni & Aklesso Y. G. Egbendewe & Windmanagda Sawadogo & Saidou Madougou, 2022. "Solar Energy Powered Decentralized Smart-Grid for Sustainable Energy Supply in Low-Income Countries: Analysis Considering Climate Change Influences in Togo," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(24), pages 1-24, December.
    14. Chen, Shang & He, Liang & Cao, Yinxuan & Wang, Runhong & Wu, Lianhai & Wang, Zhao & Zou, Yufeng & Siddique, Kadambot H.M. & Xiong, Wei & Liu, Manshuang & Feng, Hao & Yu, Qiang & Wang, Xiaoming & He, J, 2021. "Comparisons among four different upscaling strategies for cultivar genetic parameters in rainfed spring wheat phenology simulations with the DSSAT-CERES-Wheat model," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 258(C).
    15. Jung-A Yang & Sooyoul Kim & Sangyoung Son & Nobuhito Mori & Hajime Mase, 2020. "Assessment of uncertainties in projecting future changes to extreme storm surge height depending on future SST and greenhouse gas concentration scenarios," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(2), pages 425-442, September.
    16. Enrica De Cian & Ian Sue Wing, 2016. "Global Energy Demand in a Warming Climate," Working Papers 2016.16, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    17. Guo, Jinggang & Prestemon, Jeffrey & Johnston, Craig, 2023. "Forest market outlook in the Southern United States," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    18. Fahad Saeed & Mansour Almazroui & Nazrul Islam & Mariam Saleh Khan, 2017. "Intensification of future heat waves in Pakistan: a study using CORDEX regional climate models ensemble," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 87(3), pages 1635-1647, July.
    19. Zhongwen Xu & Liming Yao & Yin Long, 2020. "Climatic Impact Toward Regional Water Allocation and Transfer Strategies from Economic, Social and Environmental Perspectives," Land, MDPI, vol. 9(11), pages 1-17, November.
    20. Vizinho, André & Avelar, David & Fonseca, Ana Lúcia & Carvalho, Silvia & Sucena-Paiva, Leonor & Pinho, Pedro & Nunes, Alice & Branquinho, Cristina & Vasconcelos, Ana Cátia & Santos, Filipe Duarte & Ro, 2021. "Framing the application of Adaptation Pathways for agroforestry in Mediterranean drylands," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:agisys:v:164:y:2018:i:c:p:58-70. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/agsy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.