IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/advacc/v44y2019icp68-80.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Analyst rounding of EPS forecasts and stock recommendations

Author

Listed:
  • Akono, Henri
  • Karim, Khondkar
  • Nwaeze, Emeka

Abstract

We examine the association between analysts' stock recommendations and their tendency to round annual EPS forecasts to nickel intervals (i.e. placing a zero or five in the penny location of the forecast). We find that prior to Regulation Fair Disclosure (Reg FD), analysts were more likely to provide rounded EPS forecasts in association with unfavorable (underperform and sell) recommendations. However, after Reg FD, we find no significant association between rounded forecasts and unfavorable stock recommendations. Further, other regulations (NASD 2711, NYSE 472, and Global Research Analyst Settlement) have no impact on analyst rounding behavior. The findings in this study suggest that analyst rounding behavior is a particular form of forecasting optimism motivated, at least in part, by management relations incentives. Further, Reg FD appears partially successful at curbing the influence of management relations incentives on analysts' research.

Suggested Citation

  • Akono, Henri & Karim, Khondkar & Nwaeze, Emeka, 2019. "Analyst rounding of EPS forecasts and stock recommendations," Advances in accounting, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 68-80.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:advacc:v:44:y:2019:i:c:p:68-80
    DOI: 10.1016/j.adiac.2018.10.002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0882611017301001
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.adiac.2018.10.002?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yonca Ertimur & Jayanthi Sunder & Shyam V. Sunder, 2007. "Measure for Measure: The Relation between Forecast Accuracy and Recommendation Profitability of Analysts," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(3), pages 567-606, June.
    2. Lin, Hsiou-wei & McNichols, Maureen F., 1998. "Underwriting relationships, analysts' earnings forecasts and investment recommendations," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 101-127, February.
    3. Anup Agrawal & Sahiba Chadha & Mark A. Chen, 2006. "Who Is Afraid of Reg FD? The Behavior and Performance of Sell-Side Analysts Following the SEC's Fair Disclosure Rules," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(6), pages 2811-2834, November.
    4. Warren Bailey & Haitao Li & Connie X. Mao & Rui Zhong, 2003. "Regulation Fair Disclosure and Earnings Information: Market, Analyst, and Corporate Responses," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(6), pages 2487-2514, December.
    5. Praveen Sinha & Lawrence D. Brown & Somnath Das, 1997. "A Re†Examination of Financial Analysts' Differential Earnings Forecast Accuracy," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 14(1), pages 1-42, March.
    6. Ohad Kadan & Leonardo Madureira & Rong Wang & Tzachi Zach, 2009. "Conflicts of Interest and Stock Recommendations: The Effects of the Global Settlement and Related Regulations," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(10), pages 4189-4217, October.
    7. Barber, Brad M. & Lehavy, Reuven & McNichols, Maureen & Trueman, Brett, 2006. "Buys, holds, and sells: The distribution of investment banks' stock ratings and the implications for the profitability of analysts' recommendations," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1-2), pages 87-117, April.
    8. Heckman, James, 2013. "Sample selection bias as a specification error," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 31(3), pages 129-137.
    9. Athanasakou, Vasiliki & Simpson, Ana, 2016. "Investor attention to rounding as a salient forecast feature," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1212-1233.
    10. Clement, Michael B., 1999. "Analyst forecast accuracy: Do ability, resources, and portfolio complexity matter?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 285-303, July.
    11. Jacob, John & Lys, Thomas Z. & Neale, Margaret A., 1999. "Expertise in forecasting performance of security analysts," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 51-82, November.
    12. Michael Eames & Steven M. Glover & Jane Kennedy, 2002. "The Association between Trading Recommendations and Broker‐Analysts’ Earnings Forecasts," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(1), pages 85-104, March.
    13. John R. Graham, 1999. "Herding among Investment Newsletters: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(1), pages 237-268, February.
    14. Cowen, Amanda & Groysberg, Boris & Healy, Paul, 2006. "Which types of analyst firms are more optimistic?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1-2), pages 119-146, April.
    15. McNichols, M & O'Brien, PC, 1997. "Self-selection and analyst coverage," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35, pages 167-199.
    16. Mikhail, MB & Walther, BR & Willis, RH, 1997. "Do security analysts improve their performance with experience?," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35, pages 131-157.
    17. Mikhail, Michael B. & Walther, Beverly R. & Willis, Richard H., 2003. "The effect of experience on security analyst underreaction," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 101-116, April.
    18. Beixin Lin & Rong Yang, 2012. "Does Regulation Fair Disclosure affect analysts’ forecast performance? The case of restructuring firms," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 38(4), pages 495-517, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Pankaj Agrrawal & Faye W. Gilbert & Jason Harkins, 2022. "Time Dependence of CAPM Betas on the Choice of Interval Frequency and Return Timeframes: Is There an Optimum?," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-18, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ramnath, Sundaresh & Rock, Steve & Shane, Philip, 2008. "The financial analyst forecasting literature: A taxonomy with suggestions for further research," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 34-75.
    2. Beyer, Anne & Cohen, Daniel A. & Lys, Thomas Z. & Walther, Beverly R., 2010. "The financial reporting environment: Review of the recent literature," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2-3), pages 296-343, December.
    3. Hueiling Chen & Cheng-Tsu Huang & Hsiou-Wei W. Lin, 2016. "Changes in analyst following for less covered firms accompanying Regulation Fair Disclosure: the roles of ability and industry experience," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 519-541, April.
    4. Pacelli, Joseph, 2019. "Corporate culture and analyst catering⁎," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 120-143.
    5. Yu, Fang (Frank), 2008. "Analyst coverage and earnings management," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 245-271, May.
    6. Chan, Jesse & Lin, Steve & Yu, Yong & Zhao, Wuyang, 2018. "Analysts’ stock ownership and stock recommendations," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 476-498.
    7. Prem G. Mathew & H. Semih Yildirim, 2015. "Does director affiliation lead to analyst bias?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(3), pages 272-287, January.
    8. Juyoun Ryoo & Cheolwoo Lee & Jin Q Jeon, 2020. "Sustainability of Analyst Recommendations in Multiple Lead Underwriter IPOs," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-36, March.
    9. Anup Agrawal & Mark A. Chen, 2008. "Do Analyst Conflicts Matter? Evidence from Stock Recommendations," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 51(3), pages 503-537, August.
    10. Mehran, Hamid & Stulz, Rene M., 2007. "The economics of conflicts of interest in financial institutions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(2), pages 267-296, August.
    11. Dambra, Michael & Field, Laura Casares & Gustafson, Matthew T. & Pisciotta, Kevin, 2018. "The consequences to analyst involvement in the IPO process: Evidence surrounding the JOBS Act," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 302-330.
    12. Yi Dong & Nan Hu & Xu Li & Ling Liu, 2017. "Analyst Firm Coverage and Forecast Accuracy: The Effect of Regulation Fair Disclosure," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 53(4), pages 450-484, December.
    13. Cheolwoo Lee, 2013. "Analyst firm parent–subsidiary relationship and conflict of interest: evidence from IPO recommendations," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 53(3), pages 763-789, September.
    14. Minzhi Wu & Mark Wilson & Yi Wu, 2017. "Was the Global Settlement Effective in Mitigating Systematic Bias in Affiliated Analyst Recommendations?," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 146(3), pages 485-503, December.
    15. Kadan, Ohad & Madureira, Leonardo & Wang, Rong & Zach, Tzachi, 2012. "Analysts' industry expertise," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 95-120.
    16. K. Hung Chan & Ray R. Wang & Ruixin Wang, 2021. "The Macbeth Factor: The Dark Side of Achievement‐driving Analysts," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 57(2), pages 325-361, June.
    17. Ljungqvist, Alexander & Marston, Felicia & Starks, Laura T. & Wei, Kelsey D. & Yan, Hong, 2007. "Conflicts of interest in sell-side research and the moderating role of institutional investors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(2), pages 420-456, August.
    18. Robert Libby & James E. Hunton & Hun‐Tong Tan & Nicholas Seybert, 2008. "Retracted: Relationship Incentives and the Optimistic/Pessimistic Pattern in Analysts' Forecasts," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(1), pages 173-198, March.
    19. BC, Bishal & Esfahani, Sharif, 2020. "The role of debt contracts in analyst earnings forecasts," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    20. Vadim S. Balashov & Zhanel B. DeVides, 2020. "Is Diversification A Job Safety Net For Sell‐Side Analysts?," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 43(3), pages 543-573, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Rounding of EPS forecasts; Stock recommendations; Management relations incentives; Regulation Fair Disclosure; Analyst experience;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • M49 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - Other
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • G30 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:advacc:v:44:y:2019:i:c:p:68-80. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/advances-in-accounting/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.