IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ecr/col070/11116.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Public debt sustainability in the northern countries of Latin America

Author

Listed:
  • Paunovic, Igor

Abstract

An analysis of public debt indicators in eight northern countries of Latin America reveals that Nicaragua and Honduras are the most vulnerable; Panama, the Dominican Republic, Costa Rica, and El Salvador are moderately vulnerable; while Mexico and Guatemala have debt levels that are not considered dangerous. Nonetheless, a subsequent review of four indicators of fiscal sustainability shows only Mexico to be well positioned under all criteria; Costa Rica and Guatemala display a number of minor problems, while various special circumstances explain the favourable results obtained by Nicaragua and the Dominican Republic; and El Salvador, Honduras and Panama will be unable to sustain their 2004 fiscal policy for very long. Lastly, analysis of the sensitivity of the debt to a sudden stop in foreign capital inflows suggests the need for a cautious attitude towards the future trend of the public debt in the face of rising international interest rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Paunovic, Igor, 2005. "Public debt sustainability in the northern countries of Latin America," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), December.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecr:col070:11116
    Note: Includes bibliography
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://repositorio.cepal.org/handle/11362/11116
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ms. Jocelyn Horne, 1991. "Indicators of Fiscal Sustainability," IMF Working Papers 1991/005, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Tromben, Varinia & Martner Fanta, Ricardo, 2004. "Public debt sustainability," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), December.
    3. Mr. Nigel A Chalk & Mr. Richard Hemming, 2000. "Assessing Fiscal Sustainability in Theory and Practice," IMF Working Papers 2000/081, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Catherine Pattillo & Hélène Poirson & Luca Antonio Ricci, 2011. "External Debt and Growth," Review of Economics and Institutions, Università di Perugia, vol. 2(3).
    5. Mr. Enzo Croce & Mr. V. Hugo Juan-Ramon, 2003. "Assessing Fiscal Sustainability: A Cross-Country Comparison," IMF Working Papers 2003/145, International Monetary Fund.
    6. -, 2005. "Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean 2004-2005," Estudio Económico de América Latina y el Caribe, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), number 1062 edited by Eclac.
    7. Ms. Karen Elizabeth Parker & Steffen Kastner, 1993. "A Framework for Assessing Fiscal Sustainability and External Viability, with An Application to India," IMF Working Papers 1993/078, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Mr. Oscar E Melhado Orellana, 2003. "Fiscal Sustainability and Resource Mobilization in the Dominican Republic," IMF Working Papers 2003/019, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Alejandro Izquierdo & Ernesto Talvi & Guillermo A. Calvo, 2002. "Sudden Stops, the Real Exchange Rate and Fiscal Sustainability: Argentina's Lessons," Research Department Publications 4299, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    10. Ayumu Yamauchi, 2004. "Fiscal Sustainability: The Case of Eritrea," IMF Working Papers 2004/007, International Monetary Fund.
    11. World Bank, 2005. "Global Development Finance 2005 : Mobilizing Finance and Managing Vulnerability, Volume 2. Summary and Country Tables," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 8136.
    12. -, 2004. "Economic survey of the Caribbean, 2003-2004," Sede Subregional de la CEPAL para el Caribe (Estudios e Investigaciones) 27562, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    13. -, 2004. "Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean 2003-2004," Estudio Económico de América Latina y el Caribe, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), number 1059 edited by Eclac.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ehrhart Christophe & Matthieu Llorca, 2017. "Fiscal Sustainability in Central and Latin America Countries: Evidence from a Panel Cointegration Approach," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(4), pages 2292-2300.
    2. Torres, Miguel & Hofman, André A., 2008. "ECLAC thinking in the CEPAL Review (1976-2008)," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), December.
    3. Christophe Ehrhart & Matthieu Llorca, 2017. "Fiscal sustainability in Central and Latin American countries : evidence from a panel cointegration approach," Post-Print hal-04704604, HAL.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Carlos Díaz Alvarado & Alejandro Izquierdo & Ugo Panizza, 2004. "Fiscal Sustainability in Emerging Market Countries with an Application to Ecuador," Research Department Publications 4371, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    2. Alexis CRUZ-RODRÍGUEZ, 2014. "Assessing fiscal sustainability in some selected countries," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(6(595)), pages 7-22, June.
    3. Yilmaz Akyüz, 2007. "Debt Sustainability in Emerging Markets: A Critical Appraisal," Working Papers 61, United Nations, Department of Economics and Social Affairs.
    4. Mr. Joseph Ntamatungiro, 2004. "Fiscal Sustainability in Heavily Indebted Countries Dependenton Nonrenewable Resources: The Case of Gabon," IMF Working Papers 2004/030, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Cruz-Rodriguez, Alexis, 2013. "La END, el plan nacional plurianual del sector público y la sostenibilidad fiscal en la República Dominicana [The Dominican National Development Strategy (END), the National Multi-Year Public Secto," MPRA Paper 49376, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Stoian, Andreea & Alves, Rui Henrique, 2014. "High public debt in the euro area: still a fact," MPRA Paper 63679, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Goswami , Gour Gobinda & Hossain, Mohammad Mashnun, 2013. "From Judgmental Projection to Time Series Forecast: Does it Alter the Debt Sustainability Analysis of Bangladesh?," Bangladesh Development Studies, Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS), vol. 36(3), pages 1-41, September.
    8. Hyejin Ko, 2020. "Measuring fiscal sustainability in the welfare state: fiscal space as fiscal sustainability," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 531-554, May.
    9. Eduardo Levy Yeyati & Federico Sturzenegger, 2023. "A balance‐sheet approach to fiscal sustainability," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 44(1), pages 61-84, March.
    10. Scott Régifère Mouandat, 2021. "Optimal debt in Gabon: an analysis in term of foreign currency compositions [La dette optimale au Gabon: une analyse en termes de composition en devises]," Post-Print hal-03326826, HAL.
    11. Mr. Enzo Croce & Mr. V. Hugo Juan-Ramon, 2003. "Assessing Fiscal Sustainability: A Cross-Country Comparison," IMF Working Papers 2003/145, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Ata Ozkaya, 2013. "The Effects of Debt Intolerance and Public Debt Sustainability on Credit Ratings: Evidence From European Economies," Working Papers 011, Bahcesehir University, Betam.
    13. Emilia Câmpeanu & Andreea Stoian, 2010. "Fiscal Policy Reaction in the Short Term for Assessing Fiscal Sustainability in the Long Runin Central and Eastern European Countries," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 60(6), pages 501-518, December.
    14. Gianluca Cafiso, 2014. "Debt Sustainability in the Case of External Debt. An Analysis Based on Italy's Treasury Auctions," CESifo Working Paper Series 5021, CESifo.
    15. Qin, Duo & Cagas, Marie Anne & Ducanes, Geoffrey & Magtibay-Ramos, Nedelyn & Quising, Pilipinas, 2006. "Empirical assessment of sustainability and feasibility of government debt: The Philippines case," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 63-84, February.
    16. Gábor Kutasi, 2017. "Unsustainable Public Debt in a European Fiscal Union?," Revista Finanzas y Politica Economica, Universidad Católica de Colombia, vol. 9(1), pages 25-39, February.
    17. Aldunate, Eduardo & Martner Fanta, Ricardo, 2006. "Fiscal policy and social protection," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), December.
    18. Koo, Chung Mo, 2002. "Fiscal sustainability in the wake of the economic crisis in Korea," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(5), pages 659-669.
    19. Scott Regifère MOUANDAT, 2021. "dette optimale au Gabon," Journal of Academic Finance, RED research unit, university of Gabes, Tunisia, vol. 12(1), pages 132-149, June.
    20. Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Lau, Evan, 2007. "Regime changes and the sustainability of fiscal imbalance in East Asian countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 878-894, November.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecr:col070:11116. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Biblioteca CEPAL (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/eclaccl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.