IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eco/journ2/2022-04-48.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Impact of Oil Prices on the Macroeconomic Indicators of Kazakhstan and the Consequences for the Formation of Social Policy

Author

Listed:
  • Gulmira Moldabekova

    (Gumilyov Eurasian National University, Nur-Sultan, 010000, Kazakhstan)

  • Zhanarys Raimbekov

    (Gumilyov Eurasian National University, Nur-Sultan, 010000, Kazakhstan)

  • Arsen Tleppayev

    (Kazakh German University, Almaty, 050010, Kazakhstan,)

  • Yuliya Tyurina

    (Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow, 49125993, Russian Federation,)

  • Raushan Yesbergen

    (Academy of Public Administration under the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Aktobe, 020004, Kazakhstan,)

  • Gulimai Amaniyazova

    (Yessenov University, Aktau, 130000, Kazakhstan.)

Abstract

The article analyzes the impact of the dynamics of oil prices on the main macroeconomic indicators of the Kazakhstani economy and the consequences of the formation of national social policy. The article applies different hypotheses about the sensitivity of macroeconomic indicators of the economy of Kazakhstan to fluctuations of oil prices, and in addition, it specifies and evaluates a system of simultaneous equations that allows to test these hypotheses. Scenarios for the reaction of the Kazakhstani economy to exogenous shocks associated with a sharp change in the level of oil prices are considered, and some measures are proposed to reduce the negative consequences of fluctuations in oil prices for the Kazakhstani economy. Finally, the article discusses some of the results of understanding the challenges and realities in the field of social policy, which are generated by the model of economic growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Gulmira Moldabekova & Zhanarys Raimbekov & Arsen Tleppayev & Yuliya Tyurina & Raushan Yesbergen & Gulimai Amaniyazova, 2022. "The Impact of Oil Prices on the Macroeconomic Indicators of Kazakhstan and the Consequences for the Formation of Social Policy," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 12(4), pages 447-454, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ2:2022-04-48
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijeep/article/download/13132/6859
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijeep/article/view/13132
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Supriyo De & Saad Quayyum & Kirsten Schuettler & Seyed Reza Yousefi, 2019. "Oil prices, growth, and remittance outflows from the Gulf Cooperation Council," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 48(3), November.
    2. Chaudhuri, Kausik & Daniel, Betty C., 1998. "Long-run equilibrium real exchange rates and oil prices," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 231-238, February.
    3. Dinmukhamed Kelesbayev & Kundyz Myrzabekkyzy & Artur Bolganbayev & Sabit Baimaganbetov, 2022. "The Impact of Oil Prices on the Stock Market and Real Exchange Rate: The Case of Kazakhstan," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 12(1), pages 163-168.
    4. Sadorsky, Perry, 2014. "Modeling volatility and conditional correlations between socially responsible investments, gold and oil," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 609-618.
    5. Bruce A. Babcock, 2011. "The Impact of Ethanol and Ethanol Subsidies on Corn Prices: Revisiting History," Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) Publications (archive only) 11-pb5, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
    6. Berntsen, Martin & Bøe, Kristine Skjong & Jordal, Therese & Molnár, Peter, 2018. "Determinants of oil and gas investments on the Norwegian Continental Shelf," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 904-914.
    7. Katarzyna Czech & Ibrahim Niftiyev, 2021. "The Impact of Oil Price Shocks on Oil-Dependent Countries’ Currencies: The Case of Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-14, September.
    8. Mohammad Javad Razmi & Mehdi Behname, 2012. "FDI determinants and oil effects on foreign direct investment: evidence from Islamic countries," Advances in Management and Applied Economics, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 2(4), pages 1-17.
    9. Sergey Tishkov & Anton Shcherbak & Valentina Karginova-Gubinova & Alexander Volkov & Arsen Tleppayev & Antonina Pakhomova, 2020. "Assessment the role of renewable energy in socio-economic development of rural and Arctic regions," Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Issues, VsI Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Center, vol. 7(4), pages 3354-3368, June.
    10. Mina, Wasseem, 2007. "The location determinants of FDI in the GCC countries," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 336-348, October.
    11. repec:srs:journl:jarle:v:8:y:2017:i:8:p:2498-2503 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Aktolkin Abubakirova & Lyazzat Kudabayeva & Gulnar Abdulina & Aliya Zurbayeva & Indira Tazhiyeva, 2021. "Analysis of the Asymmetric Relationship between Oil Prices and Real Effective Exchange Rate in Kazakhstan," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(4), pages 345-351.
    13. Wang, Qiang & Li, Shuyu & Pisarenko, Zhanna, 2020. "Heterogeneous effects of energy efficiency, oil price, environmental pressure, R&D investment, and policy on renewable energy -- evidence from the G20 countries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    14. Gulzhan MUKHAMADIYEVA & Gulyiya MUKALDYEVA & Zhanar KARASHEVA & Amangeldy KHAMZIN & Yermek BURIBAYEV & Zhanna KHAMZINA, 2017. "Modernization of Social Security System Legal Regulation in Kazakhstan Experience and Standards of the OECD Members Implementation," Journal of Advanced Research in Law and Economics, ASERS Publishing, vol. 8(8), pages 2498-2503.
    15. Omar Masood & Manuela Tvaronavičienė & Kiran Javaria, 2019. "Impact of oil prices on stock return: evidence from G7 countries," Post-Print hal-02163013, HAL.
    16. Badeeb, Ramez Abubakr & Lean, Hooi Hooi & Smyth, Russell, 2016. "Oil curse and finance–growth nexus in Malaysia: The role of investment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 154-165.
    17. Zhanna Tsaurkubule & Zhaxat Kenzhin & Dana Bekniyazova & Gulmira Bayandina & Gulsara Dyussembekova, 2020. "Assessment of competitiveness of regions of the Republic of Kazakhstan," Insights into Regional Development, VsI Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Center, vol. 2(1), pages 469-479, March.
    18. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert L. & Arora, Vipin, 2020. "The relationship between oil prices and exchange rates: Revisiting theory and evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    19. Janusz Grabara & Arsen Tleppayev & Malika Dabylova & Leonardus W. W. Mihardjo & Zdzisława Dacko-Pikiewicz, 2021. "Empirical Research on the Relationship amongst Renewable Energy Consumption, Economic Growth and Foreign Direct Investment in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-18, January.
    20. Ederington, Louis H. & Fernando, Chitru S. & Hoelscher, Seth A. & Lee, Thomas K. & Linn, Scott C., 2019. "A review of the evidence on the relation between crude oil prices and petroleum product prices," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 1-15.
    21. Aitzhanova, Aktoty & Iskaliyeva, Anastassiya & Krishnaswamy, Venkataraman & Makauskas, Dmitry & Razavi, Hossein & Sartip, Ahmad Reza & Urazaliyeva, Aida, 2015. "A practical approach to oil wealth management: Application to the case of Kazakhstan," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 178-188.
    22. Filis, George, 2010. "Macro economy, stock market and oil prices: Do meaningful relationships exist among their cyclical fluctuations?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 877-886, July.
    23. Richard Pomfret, 2005. "Kazakhstan's Economy since Independence: Does the Oil Boom Offer a Second Chance for Sustainable Development?," Europe-Asia Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(6), pages 859-876.
    24. Wasseem, Mina, 2007. "Are the GCC FDI Location Determinants Favorable?," Economics Discussion Papers 2007-23, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    25. Bayramov, Vugar & Abbas, Gulnara, 2017. "Oil shock in the Caspian Basin: Diversification policy and subsidized economies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 149-156.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Meiramkul Saiymova & Marija Troyanskaya & Kulyash Shalgimbayeva & Zhanat Babazhanova & Roza Jumabekova, 2023. "The Vector Auto Regression Analysis of the Link between Renewable Energy Consumption and Economic Development for Turkey and Kazakhstan," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(2), pages 309-315, March.
    2. Sugra Ingilab Humbatova & Natig Gadim-Oglu Hajiev, 2024. "Analysis of the Main Social Macroeconomic Indicators of the Population During The oil Boom in Azerbaijan," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 14(2), pages 135-149, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alfalih, Abdullah Abdulmohsen & Bel Hadj, Tarek, 2020. "Foreign direct investment determinants in an oil abundant host country: Short and long-run approach for Saudi Arabia," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    2. Mina, Wasseem, 2009. "External commitment mechanisms, institutions, and FDI in GCC countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 371-386, April.
    3. Federico Carril-Caccia & Juliette Milgram-Baleix & Jordi Paniagua, 2019. "Foreign Direct Investment in oil-abundant countries: The role of institutions," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(4), pages 1-23, April.
    4. Li, Tianyu & Yue, Xiao-Guang & Waheed, Humayun & Yıldırım, Bilal, 2023. "Can energy efficiency and natural resources foster economic growth? Evidence from BRICS countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    5. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert, 2013. "Is there a homogeneous causality pattern between oil prices and currencies of oil importers and exporters?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 665-678.
    6. Syarifuddin, Ferry, 2020. "The Dynamics of Foreign Direct Investment and Exchange Rates: An Interconnection Approach in ASEAN," MPRA Paper 104596, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Wasseem Mina, 2008. "BIT Contracting and FDI Impact in the GCC Countries," Working Papers 437, Economic Research Forum, revised 09 Jan 2008.
    8. Martin Baumgärtner & Jens Klose, 2019. "Forecasting exchange rates with commodity prices—a global country analysis," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(9), pages 2546-2565, September.
    9. Sèna Kimm Gnangnon, 2022. "Aid for Trade, export product diversification, and foreign direct investment," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(1), pages 534-561, February.
    10. Maud Korley & Evangelos Giouvris, 2022. "The Impact of Oil Price and Oil Volatility Index (OVX) on the Exchange Rate in Sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence from Oil Importing/Exporting Countries," Economies, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-29, November.
    11. Krzysztof Drachal, 2022. "Forecasting the Crude Oil Spot Price with Bayesian Symbolic Regression," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(1), pages 1-29, December.
    12. Khalid M. Kisswani & Arezou Harraf & Amjad M. Kisswani, 2019. "Revisiting the effects of oil prices on exchange rate: asymmetric evidence from the ASEAN-5 countries," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 52(3), pages 279-300, August.
    13. Yixing Yang & Md. Qamruzzaman & Mohd Ziaur Rehman & Salma Karim, 2021. "Do Tourism and Institutional Quality Asymmetrically Effects on FDI Sustainability in BIMSTEC Countries: An Application of ARDL, CS-ARDL, NARDL, and Asymmetric Causality Test," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-29, September.
    14. Fenghua Wen & Jihong Xiao & Chuangxia Huang & Xiaohua Xia, 2018. "Interaction between oil and US dollar exchange rate: nonlinear causality, time-varying influence and structural breaks in volatility," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(3), pages 319-334, January.
    15. Albulescu, Claudiu Tiberiu & Ajmi, Ahdi Noomen, 2021. "Oil price and US dollar exchange rate: Change detection of bi-directional causal impact," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    16. Xiaosong Wang & Huan Wu & Le Li, 2022. "Risks and Firms' Decision Making on Outward Foreign Direct Investment: An Empirical Analysis of China's State‐owned Enterprises," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 30(6), pages 163-182, November.
    17. Yan Chen & Ruirui Zhai & Kevin H. Zhang, 2020. "Natural Resources and Foreign Direct Investment in Africa: Evidence from Chinese Firms," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(22), pages 1-18, November.
    18. Farah Durani & Waqar Ameer & Muhammad Saeed Meo & Maizaitulaidawati Md Husin, 2021. "Relationship Between Outward Foreign Direct Investment and Domestic Investment: Evidence from GCC Countries," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 11(4), pages 278-291, April.
    19. Almenar-Llongo, Vicent & Muñoz de Prat, Javier & Orero-Blat, Maria, 2021. "Qualitative analysis for joint ventures as an entry mode in foreign direct investment," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 324-332.
    20. Joscha Beckmann & Robert Czudaj, 2013. "Is there a Homogeneous Causality Pattern between Oil Prices and Currencies of Oil Importers and Exporters?," Ruhr Economic Papers 0431, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Crude Oil Prices; Stock Prices; Macroeconomics; Economic Development;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • A10 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics - - - General
    • D04 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Microeconomic Policy: Formulation; Implementation; Evaluation
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General
    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eco:journ2:2022-04-48. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ilhan Ozturk (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.econjournals.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.