IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eco/journ2/2022-05-14.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Relationship Between Geopolitical Risk In Major Oil Producing Countries and Oil Price

Author

Listed:
  • Tin Hei Alpha Yuen

    (University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong,)

  • Wai Kee Thomas Yuen

    (Hong Kong Shue Yan University, Hong Kong.)

Abstract

This study has applied Granger causality tests and dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) models to examine the relationship between geopolitical risk in major oil-producing countries and the crude oil price before and after the 2008 financial crisis. The granger causality tests show that the geopolitical risk of Saudi Arabia, Russia, the United States and China granger cause changes in crude oil prices. The DOLS models show that the series in the model are cointegrated. The coefficients for the geopolitical index of Canada, Russia and China are significant before the 2008 financial crisis sample period. However, the DOLS model shows that the coefficients for all geopolitical indexes are insignificant after the 2008 financial crisis sample period. The general public and investors generally precept major oil exporters like Russia and Saudi Arabia as the major players in the oil market. However, after the 2008 financial crisis, the discrepancy in the economic needs of the major oil-producing countries has reduced their ability to co-operate crude oil prices. This study also discovered that China plays a significant role in the oil market.

Suggested Citation

  • Tin Hei Alpha Yuen & Wai Kee Thomas Yuen, 2022. "Relationship Between Geopolitical Risk In Major Oil Producing Countries and Oil Price," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 12(5), pages 117-123, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ2:2022-05-14
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijeep/article/download/13373/6907
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijeep/article/view/13373
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dario Caldara & Matteo Iacoviello, 2022. "Measuring Geopolitical Risk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(4), pages 1194-1225, April.
    2. Chi -Wei Su & Meng Qin & Ran Tao & Nicoleta -Claudia Moldovan, 2021. "Is Oil Political? From the Perspective of Geopolitical Risk," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(4), pages 451-467, May.
    3. Selmi, Refk & Bouoiyour, Jamal & Miftah, Amal, 2020. "Oil price jumps and the uncertainty of oil supplies in a geopolitical perspective: The role of OPEC’s spare capacity," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 18-35.
    4. Saleh Mothana Obadi & Matej Korecek, 2018. "The Crude Oil Price and Speculations: Investigation Using Granger Causality Test," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(3), pages 275-282.
    5. Ding, Qian & Huang, Jianbai & Zhang, Hongwei, 2021. "The time-varying effects of financial and geopolitical uncertainties on commodity market dynamics: A TVP-SVAR-SV analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    6. Oguzhan Ozcelebi & Kaya Tokmakcioglu, 2022. "Assessment of the asymmetric impacts of the geopolitical risk on oil market dynamics," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 275-289, January.
    7. Νikolaos A. Kyriazis, 2021. "The effects of geopolitical uncertainty on cryptocurrencies and other financial assets," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 1-14, January.
    8. Saikkonen, Pentti, 1992. "Estimation and Testing of Cointegrated Systems by an Autoregressive Approximation," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(1), pages 1-27, March.
    9. Yilanci, Veli & Kilci, Esra N., 2021. "The role of economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk in predicting prices of precious metals: Evidence from a time-varying bootstrap causality test," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    10. Liu, Jing & Ma, Feng & Tang, Yingkai & Zhang, Yaojie, 2019. "Geopolitical risk and oil volatility: A new insight," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    11. Huang, Jianbai & Ding, Qian & Zhang, Hongwei & Guo, Yaoqi & Suleman, Muhammad Tahir, 2021. "Nonlinear dynamic correlation between geopolitical risk and oil prices: A study based on high-frequency data," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    12. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
    13. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    14. Sokratis Mitsas & Petros Golitsis & Khurshid Khudoykulov, 2022. "Investigating the impact of geopolitical risks on the commodity futures," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(1), pages 2049477-204, December.
    15. Les Oxley & David Greasley, 1998. "Vector autoregression, cointegration and causality: testing for causes of the British industrial revolution," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(10), pages 1387-1397.
    16. Hansen, Bruce E., 1992. "Testing for parameter instability in linear models," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 517-533, August.
    17. Liu, Yang & Han, Liyan & Xu, Yang, 2021. "The impact of geopolitical uncertainty on energy volatility," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    18. Salisu, Afees A. & Pierdzioch, Christian & Gupta, Rangan, 2021. "Geopolitical risk and forecastability of tail risk in the oil market: Evidence from over a century of monthly data," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
    19. Ghosh, Sajal, 2002. "Electricity consumption and economic growth in India," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 125-129, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Faheem Aslam & Paulo Ferreira & Haider Ali & Ana Ercília José, 2022. "Application of Multifractal Analysis in Estimating the Reaction of Energy Markets to Geopolitical Acts and Threats," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-23, May.
    2. Wang, Ziyang & Dong, Zhiliang, 2024. "Volatility spillover effects among geopolitical risks and international and Chinese crude oil markets——A study utilizing time-varying networks," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    3. Evrim Mandaci, Pınar & Azimli, Asil & Mandaci, Nazif, 2023. "The impact of geopolitical risks on connectedness among natural resource commodities: A quantile vector autoregressive approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
    4. Zhang, Zhikai & Wang, Yudong & Xiao, Jihong & Zhang, Yaojie, 2023. "Not all geopolitical shocks are alike: Identifying price dynamics in the crude oil market under tensions," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    5. Chen, Zhuoyi & Liu, Yuanyuan & Zhang, Hongwei, 2024. "Can geopolitical risks impact the long-run correlation between crude oil and clean energy markets? Evidence from a regime-switching analysis," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    6. Xiao, Jihong & Wen, Fenghua & He, Zhifang, 2023. "Impact of geopolitical risks on investor attention and speculation in the oil market: Evidence from nonlinear and time-varying analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 267(C).
    7. Khan, Nasir & Mejri, Sami & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2024. "How do global commodities react to increasing geopolitical risks? New insights into the Russia-Ukraine and Palestine-Israel conflicts," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    8. Oryani, Bahareh & Koo, Yoonmo & Rezania, Shahabaldin & Shafiee, Afsaneh, 2021. "Investigating the asymmetric impact of energy consumption on reshaping future energy policy and economic growth in Iran using extended Cobb-Douglas production function," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    9. Xiao, Jihong & Liu, Hong, 2023. "The time-varying impact of uncertainty on oil market fear: Does climate policy uncertainty matter?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    10. Zhao, Jing, 2023. "Time-varying impact of geopolitical risk on natural resources prices: Evidence from the hybrid TVP-VAR model with large system," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    11. Li, Sufang & Tu, Dalun & Zeng, Yan & Gong, Chenggang & Yuan, Di, 2022. "Does geopolitical risk matter in crude oil and stock markets? Evidence from disaggregated data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    12. Choi, Sun-Yong, 2022. "Evidence from a multiple and partial wavelet analysis on the impact of geopolitical concerns on stock markets in North-East Asian countries," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PB).
    13. Qin, Yun & Zhang, Zitao, 2024. "Transmission mechanisms of the effects of geopolitical risk on energy returns and volatility," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 95(PA).
    14. Wu, Jie & Zhao, Ruizeng & Sun, Jiasen & Zhou, Xuewei, 2023. "Impact of geopolitical risks on oil price fluctuations: Based on GARCH-MIDAS model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    15. Long, Shaobo & Guo, Jiaqi, 2022. "Infectious disease equity market volatility, geopolitical risk, speculation, and commodity returns: Comparative analysis of five epidemic outbreaks," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    16. Shao, Liuguo & Cao, Saisha & Zhang, Hua, 2024. "The impact of geopolitical risk on strategic emerging minerals prices: Evidence from MODWT-based Granger causality test," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    17. Ahmet Faruk Aysan & Ali Polat & Hasan Tekin & Ahmet Tunali, 2022. "The Ascent of Geopolitics: Scientometric Analysis and Ramifications of Geopolitical Risk," Working Papers hal-03638273, HAL.
    18. David Greasley & Les Oxley, 2010. "Cliometrics And Time Series Econometrics: Some Theory And Applications," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(5), pages 970-1042, December.
    19. Gong, Xu & Xu, Jun, 2022. "Geopolitical risk and dynamic connectedness between commodity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    20. Lee, Chi-Chuan & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Li, Yong-Yi, 2021. "Oil price shocks, geopolitical risks, and green bond market dynamics," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil Prices; Oil Production; Granger Causality Test; Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares Model; Geopolitical Risks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q02 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Commodity Market
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eco:journ2:2022-05-14. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ilhan Ozturk (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.econjournals.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.