IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eco/journ2/2021-02-28.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Risk Analysis of Firm Energy Coverage in Colombia in the Medium Term

Author

Listed:
  • Ricardo Moreno

    (Departamento de Energ tica y Mec nica, Universidad Aut noma de Occidente, Calle 25 # 115-85 Km 2 V a Cali-Jamund , Colombia,)

  • Sergio A. Cantillo

    (Departamento de Energ tica y Mec nica, Universidad Aut noma de Occidente, Calle 25 # 115-85 Km 2 V a Cali-Jamund , Colombia,)

  • Lilian A. Carrillo-Rodriguez

    (Departamento de Ciencias Sociales y Econ micas, Universidad Aut noma de Occidente, Calle 25 # 115-85 Km 2 V a Cali-Jamund , Colombia.)

Abstract

The recent auction of firm energy and the decisions on medium-term coverage give rise to risks in the supply of electricity in Colombia in the coming periods. Taking into account the possible risks that may arise, such as: non-compliance with FEO due to generation units (six (6) non-compliances during 2015-2016 term), the delay of generation projects with committed firm energy (Hidroituango case) and the availability of firm energy in the market, imply a systemic risk for the electric power supply in the medium term. Through the study of technical documents and resolutions, issued by the CREG, about the medium term energy balances in 2018, firm energy supply and demand balances were reconstructed, including the results of the last FEO auction carried out in the first quarter of 2019, in order to carry out a risk analysis based on these same scenarios. It was observed that the amount of FEO auctioned exceeds the quantity of demand projected, meaning that the CREG assumed a conservative position by purchasing more energy than necessary (8650 GWh-year and 1027 GWh-year respectively), this is a situation that has occurred on more than one occasion.

Suggested Citation

  • Ricardo Moreno & Sergio A. Cantillo & Lilian A. Carrillo-Rodriguez, 2021. "Risk Analysis of Firm Energy Coverage in Colombia in the Medium Term," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(2), pages 220-226.
  • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ2:2021-02-28
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijeep/article/download/10490/5724
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijeep/article/view/10490/5724
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jorge Barrientos Mar n & Fernando Villada, 2020. "Regionalized Discount Rate to Evaluate Renewable Energy Projects in Colombia," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(2), pages 332-336.
    2. Arias-Gaviria, Jessica & Carvajal-Quintero, Sandra Ximena & Arango-Aramburo, Santiago, 2019. "Understanding dynamics and policy for renewable energy diffusion in Colombia," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 1111-1119.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. A.M. Ramirez-Tovar & Ricardo Moreno-Chuquen & Renata Moreno-Quintero, 2022. "Land-use in the Electric Colombian System: Hidden Impacts and Risks of Large-scale Renewable Projects," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 12(2), pages 127-134, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ricardo Moreno & Diego Larrahondo, 2021. "The First Auction of Non-Conventional Renewable Energy in Colombia: Results and Perspectives," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(1), pages 528-535.
    2. Fang, Yujuan & Wei, Wei & Mei, Shengwei, 2022. "How dynamic renewable portfolio standards impact the diffusion of renewable energy in China? A networked evolutionary game analysis," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 193(C), pages 778-788.
    3. López, Andrea Ruíz & Krumm, Alexandra & Schattenhofer, Lukas & Burandt, Thorsten & Montoya, Felipe Corral & Oberländer, Nora & Oei, Pao-Yu, 2020. "Solar PV generation in Colombia - A qualitative and quantitative approach to analyze the potential of solar energy market," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 1266-1279.
    4. Thais Faria Costa & Ivan Felipe Silva Santos & Geraldo Lúcio Tiago Filho & Regina Mambeli Barros & Rosana Teixeira Miranda, 2021. "Optimum hydropower potential study on nine Brazilian drainage basins using a numerical algorithm," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 1729-1758, February.
    5. Montoya-Duque, Laura & Arango-Aramburo, Santiago & Arias-Gaviria, Jessica, 2022. "Simulating the effect of the Pay-as-you-go scheme for solar energy diffusion in Colombian off-grid regions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 244(PB).
    6. Jankowska, Barbara & Staliński, Adam & Trąpczyński, Piotr, 2021. "Public policy support and the competitiveness of the renewable energy sector – The case of Poland," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    7. García-García, Jersson & Sarmiento-Ariza, Yennifer & Campos-Rodríguez, Lizeth & Rey-López, Juan & Osma-Pinto, German, 2023. "Evaluation of tax incentives on the financial viability of microgrids," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 329(C).
    8. Yessenia Martínez-Ruiz & Diego Fernando Manotas-Duque & Juan Carlos Osorio-Gómez & Howard Ramírez-Malule, 2022. "Evaluation of Energy Potential from Coffee Pulp in a Hydrothermal Power Market through System Dynamics: The Case of Colombia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-19, May.
    9. Henao, Felipe & Dyner, Isaac, 2020. "Renewables in the optimal expansion of colombian power considering the Hidroituango crisis," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 612-627.
    10. Michele Fioretti & Junnan He & Jorge Tamayo, 2024. "Prices and Concentration: A U-shape? Theory and Evidence from Renewables," Papers 2407.03504, arXiv.org.
    11. John J. García Rendón & Alex F. Pérez-Libreros, 2019. "El precio spot de la electricidad y la inclusión de energía renovable no convencional: evidencia para Colombia," Documentos de Trabajo de Valor Público 17393, Universidad EAFIT.
    12. Guillermo Valencia Ochoa & Jose Nunez Alvarez & Carlos Acevedo, 2019. "Research Evolution on Renewable Energies Resources from 2007 to 2017: A Comparative Study on Solar, Geothermal, Wind and Biomass Energy," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 9(6), pages 242-253.
    13. Jorge Armando Bedoya-Cadavid & Ángela María Lanzas-Duque & Harold Salazar, 2023. "WACC for Electric Power Transmission System Operators: The Case of Colombia," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-13, January.
    14. Xin-gang, Zhao & Wei, Wang & Jieying, Wang, 2022. "The policy effects of demand-pull and technology-push on the diffusion of wind power: A scenario analysis based on system dynamics approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 261(PA).
    15. Perez, Alex & Garcia-Rendon, John J., 2021. "Integration of non-conventional renewable energy and spot price of electricity: A counterfactual analysis for Colombia," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 146-161.
    16. Milad Shadman & Mateo Roldan-Carvajal & Fabian G. Pierart & Pablo Alejandro Haim & Rodrigo Alonso & Corbiniano Silva & Andrés F. Osorio & Nathalie Almonacid & Griselda Carreras & Mojtaba Maali Amiri &, 2023. "A Review of Offshore Renewable Energy in South America: Current Status and Future Perspectives," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-34, January.
    17. Arias-Gaviria, Jessica & Arango-Aramburo, Santiago & Lamadrid L, Alberto J., 2022. "The effects of high penetrations of renewable energy sources in cycles for electricity markets: An experimental analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    18. Arango-Aramburo, Santiago & Turner, Sean W.D. & Daenzer, Kathryn & Ríos-Ocampo, Juan Pablo & Hejazi, Mohamad I. & Kober, Tom & Álvarez-Espinosa, Andrés C. & Romero-Otalora, Germán D. & van der Zwaan, , 2019. "Climate impacts on hydropower in Colombia: A multi-model assessment of power sector adaptation pathways," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 179-188.
    19. Miraj Ahmed Bhuiyan & Jaehyung An & Alexey Mikhaylov & Nikita Moiseev & Mir Sayed Shah Danish, 2021. "Renewable Energy Deployment and COVID-19 Measures for Sustainable Development," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-15, April.
    20. José Vargas-Brochero & Sebastián Hurtado-Castillo & Jesús Altamiranda & Frederico Carlos M. de Menezes Filho & Alexandre Beluco & Fausto A. Canales, 2024. "Optimizing Renewable Energy Systems for Water Security: A Comparative Study of Reanalysis Models," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(11), pages 1-21, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Reliability Charge; Firm Energy; Firm Energy Obligation; Risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L78 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Primary Products and Construction - - - Government Policy
    • L94 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Electric Utilities
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eco:journ2:2021-02-28. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ilhan Ozturk (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.econjournals.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.