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Review of Energy Transition Pathways Modeling

Author

Listed:
  • Elnur T. Mekhdiev

    (Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russia,)

  • Nursafa G. Khairullina

    (Tyumen Industrial University, Russia,)

  • Alexandr S. Vereshchagin

    (Ufa State Petroleum Technological University, Russia,)

  • Elena V. Takmakova

    (Orel State University named after I. S. Turgenev, Russia,)

  • Olga M. Smirnova

    (Gubkin Russian State University of Oil and Gas (National Research University), Moscow, Russia)

Abstract

This article discusses how quantitative modeling of energy scenarios for transition towards sustainable energy can be made more realistic, by taking into account insights and concepts from the related literature on modeling of complex dynamic energy systems with higher shares of variable renewable energy. The proposition is that an enriched modeling approach would focus not just on deployment of technologies, but also on feedback loops, learning processes, policy and governance, behavioral changes, linkages between energy and other economic sectors, and infrastructure development. In this context, application of system dynamics modeling for energy transitions analysis is introduced. The use of causal loop diagrams provides a conceptual framework for this type of modeling, illustrating endogenous approach of system dynamics modeling and its ability to capture co-evolution of economic, policy, technology, and behavioral factors over long term.

Suggested Citation

  • Elnur T. Mekhdiev & Nursafa G. Khairullina & Alexandr S. Vereshchagin & Elena V. Takmakova & Olga M. Smirnova, 2018. "Review of Energy Transition Pathways Modeling," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(6), pages 299-312.
    • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ2:2018-06-36
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    2. Frank W. Geels & Frans Berkhout & Detlef P. van Vuuren, 2016. "Bridging analytical approaches for low-carbon transitions," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(6), pages 576-583, June.
    3. Geels, Frank W. & Kern, Florian & Fuchs, Gerhard & Hinderer, Nele & Kungl, Gregor & Mylan, Josephine & Neukirch, Mario & Wassermann, Sandra, 2016. "The enactment of socio-technical transition pathways: A reformulated typology and a comparative multi-level analysis of the German and UK low-carbon electricity transitions (1990–2014)," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(4), pages 896-913.
    4. Igbal Guliyev & Igor Litvinyuk, 2017. "Issues for Long-range Projection of International Energy Markets through the Prism of Sustainable Development," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 7(2), pages 296-303.
    5. Bale, Catherine S.E. & Varga, Liz & Foxon, Timothy J., 2015. "Energy and complexity: New ways forward," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 150-159.
    6. Geels, Frank W. & Schot, Johan, 2007. "Typology of sociotechnical transition pathways," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 399-417, April.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Francisco Chicombo, Adélia Filosa & Musango, Josephine Kaviti, 2022. "Towards a theoretical framework for gendered energy transition at the urban household level: A case of Mozambique," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    energy scenarios; energy system modeling; sustainable development;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O14 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting
    • Q55 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Technological Innovation

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