IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eco/journ2/2018-03-6.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Influence of Fuel Prices and Unemployment Rate towards the Poverty Level in Indonesia

Author

Listed:
  • Abd Azis Muthalib

    (Department of Economics, Universitas Halu Oleo, Kendari 93232, Indonesia,)

  • Pasrun Adam

    (Department of Mathematics, Universitas Halu Oleo, Kendari 93232, Indonesia)

  • Rostin Rostin

    (Depertment of Economics, Universitas Halu Oleo, Kendari 93232, Indonesia,)

  • Zainuddin Saenong

    (Depertment of Economics, Universitas Halu Oleo, Kendari 93232, Indonesia,)

  • La Ode Suriadi

    (Depertment of Economics, Universitas Halu Oleo, Kendari 93232, Indonesia.)

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to examine the influence of fuel prices and unemployment rates toward poverty levels. The data used were yearly time series data consisting of fuel price, unemployment rate, and poverty level that span from 1998 to 2017. To test the influence of fuel price and unemployment rate toward the poverty level, the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model was used. . The results of data analysis showed that in the short-term, there is a negative influence of fuel prices toward the level of poverty. Meanwhile, there is a positive influence of unemployment rate on poverty level in the long-term. In this case, every 1% increase (decrease) the unemployment rate, the poverty rate rose (down) by 33.09%.

Suggested Citation

  • Abd Azis Muthalib & Pasrun Adam & Rostin Rostin & Zainuddin Saenong & La Ode Suriadi, 2018. "The Influence of Fuel Prices and Unemployment Rate towards the Poverty Level in Indonesia," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(3), pages 37-42.
    • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ2:2018-03-6
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijeep/article/download/6233/3675
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijeep/article/view/6233/3675
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pasrun Adam, 2016. "The Response of Bank of Indonesia s Interest Rates to the Prices of World Crude Oil and Foreign Interest Rates," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 6(2), pages 266-272.
    2. Heij, Christiaan & de Boer, Paul & Franses, Philip Hans & Kloek, Teun & van Dijk, Herman K., 2004. "Econometric Methods with Applications in Business and Economics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199268016.
    3. Jinjun Xue & Wei Zhong, 2003. "Unemployment, Poverty and Income Disparity in Urban China," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 17(4), pages 383-405, December.
    4. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian, 2014. "Do oil price increases cause higher food prices? [Biofuels, binding constraints, and agricultural commodity price volatility]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 29(80), pages 691-747.
    5. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    6. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2005. "The saving and investment nexus for China: evidence from cointegration tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(17), pages 1979-1990.
    7. Sobrevinas, Alellie B. & de Jesus, Jeremy & Reyes, Celia M. & Bancolita, Joel E., 2009. "Analysis of the Impact of Changes in the Prices of Rice and Fuel on Poverty in the Philippines," Discussion Papers DP 2009-07, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    8. Adam, P. & Rianse, U. & Harafah, Ĺ. M. & Cahyono, E. & Rafiy, M., 2016. "A Model of the Dynamics of the Effect of World Crude Oil Price and World Rice Price on Indonesia’s Inflation Rate," AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Economics and Management, vol. 8(1), pages 1-10, March.
    9. Rebecca M. Blank & Alan S. Blinder, 1985. "Macroeconomics, Income Distribution, and Poverty," NBER Working Papers 1567, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Craig Sugden, 2009. "Responding to High Commodity Prices," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 23(1), pages 79-105, May.
    11. Shujie Yao, 2004. "Unemployment and urban poverty in China: a case study of Guangzhou and Tianjin," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(2), pages 171-188.
    12. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    13. Donald G. Freeman, 2003. "Poverty and the Macroeconomy: Estimates from U.S. Regional Data," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 21(3), pages 358-371, July.
    14. Pasrun Adam & Rosnawintang Rosnawintang & La Ode Saidi & La Tondi & La Ode Arsad Sani, 2018. "The Causal Relationship between Crude Oil Price, Exchange Rate and Rice Price," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(1), pages 90-94.
    15. Naranpanawa, Athula & Bandara, Jayatilleke S., 2012. "Poverty and growth impacts of high oil prices: Evidence from Sri Lanka," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 102-111.
    16. R Haveman & J Schwabish, 2000. "Has Macroeconomic Performance Regained Its Antipoverty Bite?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 18(4), pages 415-427, October.
    17. Chitiga, Margaret & Fofana, Ismael & Mabugu, Ramos, 2012. "The poverty implications of high oil prices in South Africa," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(3), pages 293-313, June.
    18. Rafiq, Shuddhasawtta & Salim, Ruhul & Bloch, Harry, 2009. "Impact of crude oil price volatility on economic activities: An empirical investigation in the Thai economy," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 121-132, September.
    19. Harry Sackey & Barfour Osei, 2006. "Human Resource Underutilization in an Era of Poverty Reduction: An Analysis of Unemployment and Underemployment in Ghana," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 18(2), pages 221-247.
    20. Rosa Martínez & Luis Ayala & Jesús Ruiz‐Huerta, 2001. "The impact of unemployment on inequality and poverty in OECD countries," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 9(2), pages 417-447, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Canavire-Bacarreza, Gustavo & Gayoso de Ervin, Lyliana & Galeano, Juan José & Baquero, Juan Pablo, 2023. "Understanding the distributional impacts of increases in fuel prices on poverty and inequality in Paraguay," Revista Latinoamericana de Desarrollo Economico, Carrera de Economía de la Universidad Católica Boliviana (UCB) "San Pablo", issue 39, pages 77-108, Mayo.
    2. Rosnawintang Rosnawintang & Tajuddin Tajuddin & Pasrun Adam & Yuwanda Purnamasari Pasrun & La Ode Saidi, 2021. "Effects of Crude Oil Prices Volatility, the Internet and Inflation on Economic Growth in ASEAN-5 Countries: A Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(1), pages 15-21.
    3. La Ode Saidi & Hasan Aedy & Fajar Saranani & Rosnawintang Rosnawintang & Pasrun Adam & La Ode Arsad Sani, 2020. "Crude Oil Price and Exchange Rate: An Analysis of the Asymmetric Effect and Volatility Using the Non Linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag and General Autoregressive Conditional Heterochedasticity in ," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(1), pages 104-108.
    4. Manat Rahim & Pasrun Adam & La Ode Suriadi & Zainuddin Saenong & Ery Atmodjo & Wali Aya Rumbia & Irma P. Tamburaka, 2018. "Causal Relationship between Electric Consumption and Economic Growth in South East Sulawesi," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(6), pages 29-34.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pasrun Adam & Rosnawintang Rosnawintang & La Ode Saidi & La Tondi & La Ode Arsad Sani, 2018. "The Causal Relationship between Crude Oil Price, Exchange Rate and Rice Price," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(1), pages 90-94.
    2. Zaghum Umar & Mariya Gubareva & Muhammad Naeem & Ayesha Akhter, 2021. "Return and volatility transmission between oil price shocks and agricultural commodities," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(2), pages 1-18, February.
    3. Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Karim, Sitara & Hasan, Mudassar & Lucey, Brian M. & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2022. "Nexus between oil shocks and agriculture commodities: Evidence from time and frequency domain," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    4. Andrés, Antonio R. & Halicioglu, Ferda, 2010. "Determinants of suicides in Denmark: Evidence from time series data," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 98(2-3), pages 263-269, December.
    5. Hande Aksöz Yılmaz, 2020. "The Impact of Foreign Trade on Immigration from Turkey to Germany: ARDL Bounds Test Approach," Journal of Economy Culture and Society, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 62(62), pages 123-143, December.
    6. Ahmed, Khalid, 2015. "The sheer scale of China’s urban renewal and CO2 emissions: Multiple structural breaks, long-run relationship and short-run dynamics," MPRA Paper 71035, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Jafari Samimi, Ahmad & Ghaderi, Saman & Sanginabadi, Bahram, 2012. "The Effects of Openness and Globalization on Inflation: An ARDL Bounds Test Approach," MPRA Paper 52407, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Chindo Sulaiman & A. S. Abdul-Rahim, 2018. "Population Growth and CO2 Emission in Nigeria: A Recursive ARDL Approach," SAGE Open, , vol. 8(2), pages 21582440187, April.
    9. Tanattrin Bunnag, 2023. "Analyzing Short-run and Long-run Causality Relationship among CO2 Emission, Energy Consumption, GDP, Square of GDP, and Foreign Direct Investment in Environmental Kuznets Curve for Thailand," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(2), pages 341-348, March.
    10. Uddin, Gazi Salah & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Arouri, Mohamed & Teulon, Frédéric, 2014. "Financial development and poverty reduction nexus: A cointegration and causality analysis in Bangladesh," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 405-412.
    11. Fakhri J. Hasanov & Muhammad Javid & Frederick L. Joutz, 2022. "Saudi Non-Oil Exports before and after COVID-19: Historical Impacts of Determinants and Scenario Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-38, February.
    12. Asrori Asrori & Muhammad Ihlashul Amal & Atta Putra Harjanto, 2019. "Company Characteristics on the Corporate Social Reporting Index of Corporate Social and Environmental Disclosure in Indonesian Public Companies," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 9(5), pages 481-488.
    13. Fakhri Hasanov & Jeyhun Mikayilov & Cihan Bulut & Elchin Suleymanov & Fuzuli Aliyev, 2017. "The Role of Oil Prices in Exchange Rate Movements: The CIS Oil Exporters," Economies, MDPI, vol. 5(2), pages 1-18, April.
    14. Ahmed Raza ul MUSTAFA* & Mohammad NISHAT**, 2017. "ROLE OF SOCIAL PROTECTION IN POVERTY REDUCTION IN PAKISTAN: A Quantitative Approach," Pakistan Journal of Applied Economics, Applied Economics Research Centre, vol. 27(1), pages 67-88.
    15. Amjad Ali & Muhammad Irfan Chani, 2013. "Disaggregated Import Demand Function: A Case Study of Pakistan," International Journal of Economics and Empirical Research (IJEER), The Economics and Social Development Organization (TESDO), vol. 1(1), pages 1-14, January.
    16. Halil Alt ntas & Melike Kum, 2013. "Multivariate Granger Causality between Electricity Generation, Exports, Prices and Economic Growth in Turkey," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 3(Special), pages 41-51.
    17. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Haouas, Ilham & Hoang, Thi Hong Van, 2019. "Economic growth and environmental degradation in Vietnam: Is the environmental Kuznets curve a complete picture?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 197-218.
    18. Aamir Jamal & G. M. Bhat, 2023. "Disentangling the Nexus Between Exchange Rate Volatility, Exports, and FDI: Empirical Evidence from the Indian Economy," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 15(3), pages 449-472, September.
    19. Sabah Haseeb Hasan & Anwaar Dhiaa AbdulKareem & Assma Abdul Ritha Daghr, 2020. "An Econometric Study of the Impact of Monetary Policy on Foreign Direct Investment in Iraq for the Period (2004-2017)," International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), vol. 0(3), pages 579-588.
    20. Constantinos Alexiou & Persefoni Tsaliki & Lefteris Tsoulfidis, 2008. "The Greek Hyperinflation Revisited," Ekonomia, Cyprus Economic Society and University of Cyprus, vol. 11(1), pages 19-34, Summer.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fuel Price; Unemployement Rate; Poverty Level; Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eco:journ2:2018-03-6. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ilhan Ozturk (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.econjournals.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.