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The poverty implications of high oil prices in South Africa

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  • Chitiga, Margaret
  • Fofana, Ismael
  • Mabugu, Ramos

Abstract

An energy-focused macro-micro approach is used to assess the poverty implications of government policy response to increases in international oil prices in South Africa. The first scenario assumes that increases in international oil prices are passed on to end users with no changes in government policy instruments. In this scenario, poverty indicators increase. The second scenario assumes that the world price increases are nullified by a price subsidy by the government. This scenario still leads to an increase in poverty as the beneficial price effect is cancelled out by a decline in households’ income induced by the financing method used. While revenue generated from a 50 per cent tax on windfall profit of the petroleum industry helps to minimize the loss in government revenue, it does not contribute to mitigating the increasing poverty trend, since the decline in saving and investment under this scenario restricts the country's growth, employment and income distribution perspectives.

Suggested Citation

  • Chitiga, Margaret & Fofana, Ismael & Mabugu, Ramos, 2012. "The poverty implications of high oil prices in South Africa," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(3), pages 293-313, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:endeec:v:17:y:2012:i:03:p:293-313_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Ben-Salha, Ousama & Mokni, Khaled, 2022. "Detrended cross-correlation analysis in quantiles between oil price and the US stock market," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).
    2. Margaret Chitiga‐Mabugu & Martin Henseler & Ramos Emmanuel Mabugu & Hélène Maisonnave, 2022. "The implications of deteriorating state‐owned enterprise performance on the South African economy," Annals of Public and Cooperative Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 93(3), pages 731-754, September.
    3. Tiberti, Luca & Maisonnave, Helene & Chitiga, Margaret & Mabugu, Ramos, 2018. "Reforming grants to tackle child poverty: An integrated macro-micro approach," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 272-281.
    4. Mabugu, Ramos & Robichaud, Veronique & Maisonnave, Helene & Chitiga, Margaret, 2013. "Impact of fiscal policy in an intertemporal CGE model for South Africa," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 775-782.
    5. Rostin Rostin & Abd Azis Muthalib & Pasrun Adam & Muh. Nur & Zainudin Saenong & La Ode Suriadi & Jamal Nasir Baso, 2019. "The Effect of Crude Oil Prices on Inflation, Interest Rates and Economic Growth in Indonesia," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 9(5), pages 14-19.
    6. Henseler, Martin & Maisonnave, Helene, 2018. "Low world oil prices: A chance to reform fuel subsidies and promote public transport? A case study for South Africa," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 45-62.
    7. R. Santos Alimi & Bayo Fatukasi, 2014. "The Role of Oil Prices and Real Exchange Rate on the Output Growth in Nigeria," International Journal of Financial Economics, Research Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 3(2), pages 70-79.
    8. Abd Azis Muthalib & Pasrun Adam & Rostin Rostin & Zainuddin Saenong & La Ode Suriadi, 2018. "The Influence of Fuel Prices and Unemployment Rate towards the Poverty Level in Indonesia," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(3), pages 37-42.
    9. Adom, Philip Kofi & Amuakwa-Mensah, Franklin & Agradi, Mawunyo Prosper & Nsabimana, Aimable, 2021. "Energy poverty, development outcomes, and transition to green energy," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 1337-1352.

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