IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eco/journ2/2017-05-35.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Oil Price Shocks and Stock Market Returns in the Three Largest Oil-producing Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Hazem Marashdeh

    (Department of Finance, College of Business Administration, Abu Dhabi University, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates)

  • Akhsyim Afandi

    (Department of Economics, Universitas Islam Indonesia, Yogyakarta, Indonesia.)

Abstract

This paper analyzes whether oil price changes can predict stock market returns in the three largest oil-producing countries in the world, namely, Saudi Arabia (SA), Russia and the United States, using different vector error correction models for the period 2000:01-2015:05. Our main hypothesis is that the effects of oil price changes on stock prices depends not only on whether the origin of the oil price shocks is from the demand side or supply side but also on whether the country under study is a net oil-importing or oil-exporting country. The results confirm our hypothesis. In particular, oil price changes driven by supply shocks exert a clearly positive impact on stock market returns in Russia, a negative impact on the US and an ambiguous impact on KSA. However, oil price changes driven by demand shocks have a positive impact on all three countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Hazem Marashdeh & Akhsyim Afandi, 2017. "Oil Price Shocks and Stock Market Returns in the Three Largest Oil-producing Countries," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 7(5), pages 312-322.
    • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ2:2017-05-35
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijeep/article/download/5468/3375
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijeep/article/view/5468/3375
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cunado, J. & Perez de Gracia, F., 2005. "Oil prices, economic activity and inflation: evidence for some Asian countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 65-83, February.
    2. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler & Mark Watson, 1997. "Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 28(1), pages 91-157.
    3. Cunado, Juncal & Perez de Gracia, Fernando, 2014. "Oil price shocks and stock market returns: Evidence for some European countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 365-377.
    4. Banerjee, Anindya & Lumsdaine, Robin L & Stock, James H, 1992. "Recursive and Sequential Tests of the Unit-Root and Trend-Break Hypotheses: Theory and International Evidence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 271-287, July.
    5. Chen, Nai-Fu & Roll, Richard & Ross, Stephen A, 1986. "Economic Forces and the Stock Market," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(3), pages 383-403, July.
    6. Mohamed El Hedi Arouri & Christophe Rault, 2012. "Oil Prices And Stock Markets In Gcc Countries: Empirical Evidence From Panel Analysis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(3), pages 242-253, July.
    7. Apergis, Nicholas & Miller, Stephen M., 2009. "Do structural oil-market shocks affect stock prices?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 569-575, July.
    8. Jamal Bouoiyour & Refk Selmi, 2016. "How Differently Does Oil Price Influences BRICS Stock Markets?," Post-Print hal-01879674, HAL.
    9. Chen, Shiu-Sheng & Chen, Hung-Chyn, 2007. "Oil prices and real exchange rates," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 390-404, May.
    10. Virginie Coudert & Valérie Mignon & Alexis Penot, 2008. "Oil Price and the Dollar," Post-Print halshs-00353404, HAL.
    11. Berk, Istemi & Aydogan, Berna, 2012. "Crude Oil Price Shocks and Stock Returns: Evidence from Turkish Stock Market under Global Liquidity Conditions," EWI Working Papers 2012-15, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Muhammad Ali, Khalid M. Iraqi, Abdul Waheed Khan, 2019. "Impact of Oil Prices on Stock Market Performance: Evidence from Top Oil Importing Countries," Journal of Finance and Economics Research, Geist Science, Iqra University, Faculty of Business Administration, vol. 4(2), pages 1-14, October.
    2. Arthur J. Lin & Hai-Yen Chang, 2020. "Volatility Transmission from Equity, Bulk Shipping, and Commodity Markets to Oil ETF and Energy Fund—A GARCH-MIDAS Model," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(9), pages 1-21, September.
    3. Rehman, Mobeen Ur & Nautiyal, Neeraj & Vo, Xuan Vinh & Ghardallou, Wafa & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2023. "Is the impact of oil shocks more pronounced during extreme market conditions?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
    4. Mesfer Mahdi Al Mesfer Al Ajmi, 2024. "Impact Of Oil Prices On Boursa Kuwait," Eurasian Journal of Economics and Finance, Eurasian Publications, vol. 12(1), pages 21-29.
    5. Nurkhodzha Akbulaev & Etimad Rahimli, 2020. "Statistical Analysis of the Relationship between Oil Prices and Industry Index Prices," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(2), pages 324-331.
    6. Abdul Rahman, 2020. "Long run Association of Stock Prices and Crude Oil Prices: Evidence from Saudi Arabia," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(2), pages 124-131.
    7. Abdullah M. H. Alharbi, 2023. "Oil Shocks, Monetary Policy, and Stock Returns: A Case of Oil-based Economy," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(6), pages 56-63, November.
    8. Qian Shen & Mohammad Sogir Hossain Khandoker & Joti Saha & Rafiqul Bhuyan, 2024. "The Impact of Crude Oil Price Shock: Evidence from Bangladesh," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 14(6), pages 257-266, October.
    9. Muhammad Hanif, 2024. "Co-movement of Oil and Stock Markets During COVID-19: Evidence from the Gulf Corporation Council," Contemporary Review of the Middle East, , vol. 11(3), pages 338-359, September.
    10. Mishra, Shekhar & Mishra, Sibanjan, 2021. "Are Indian sectoral indices oil shock prone? An empirical evaluation," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hammami Algia & Bouri Abdelfatteh, 2018. "The Conditional Relationship between Oil Price Risk and Return Stock Market: a Comparative Study of Advanced and Emerging Countries," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 9(4), pages 1321-1347, December.
    2. George Filis & Ioannis Chatziantoniou, 2014. "Financial and monetary policy responses to oil price shocks: evidence from oil-importing and oil-exporting countries," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 42(4), pages 709-729, May.
    3. Singhal, Shelly & Ghosh, Sajal, 2016. "Returns and volatility linkages between international crude oil price, metal and other stock indices in India: Evidence from VAR-DCC-GARCH models," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 276-288.
    4. Dhaoui, Abderrazak & Saidi, Youssef, 2015. "Oil supply and demand shocks and stock price: Evidence for some OECD countries," MPRA Paper 63556, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Filis, George & Degiannakis, Stavros & Floros, Christos, 2011. "Dynamic correlation between stock market and oil prices: The case of oil-importing and oil-exporting countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 152-164, June.
    6. Salah A. Nusair & Jamal A. Al-Khasawneh, 2018. "Oil price shocks and stock market returns of the GCC countries: empirical evidence from quantile regression analysis," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 51(4), pages 339-372, November.
    7. Nasir, Muhammad Ali & Al-Emadi, Ahmed Abdulsalam & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2019. "Importance of oil shocks and the GCC macroeconomy: A structural VAR analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 166-179.
    8. Mishra, Shekhar & Mishra, Sibanjan, 2021. "Are Indian sectoral indices oil shock prone? An empirical evaluation," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    9. Zolfaghari, Mehdi & Ghoddusi, Hamed & Faghihian, Fatemeh, 2020. "Volatility spillovers for energy prices: A diagonal BEKK approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    10. Stavros Degiannakis & George Filis & Vipin Arora, 2018. "Oil Prices and Stock Markets: A Review of the Theory and Empirical Evidence," The Energy Journal, , vol. 39(5), pages 85-130, September.
    11. Enwereuzoh, Precious Adaku & Odei-Mensah, Jones & Owusu Junior, Peterson, 2021. "Crude oil shocks and African stock markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    12. Saleh Mothana Obadi & Matej Korcek, 2015. "Investigation of Driving Forces of Energy Consumption in European Union 28 Countries," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 5(2), pages 422-432.
    13. Das, Debojyoti & Kannadhasan, M., 2020. "The asymmetric oil price and policy uncertainty shock exposure of emerging market sectoral equity returns: A quantile regression approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 563-581.
    14. Berna Aydogan & Istemi Berk, 2015. "Crude Oil Price Shocks and Stock Returns: Evidences from Turkish Stock Market under Global Liquidity Conditions," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 5(1), pages 54-68.
    15. Tian, Maoxi & Alshater, Muneer M. & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2022. "Dynamic risk spillovers from oil to stock markets: Fresh evidence from GARCH copula quantile regression-based CoVaR model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    16. Zhu, Hui-Ming & Li, Su-Fang & Yu, Keming, 2011. "Crude oil shocks and stock markets: A panel threshold cointegration approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 987-994, September.
    17. Cunado, Juncal & Perez de Gracia, Fernando, 2014. "Oil price shocks and stock market returns: Evidence for some European countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 365-377.
    18. Balcilar, Mehmet & Demirer, Rıza & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2019. "Quantile relationship between oil and stock returns: Evidence from emerging and frontier stock markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    19. Dhaoui, Abderrazak & Khraief, Naceur, 2014. "Empirical linkage between oil price and stock market returns and volatility: Evidence from international developed markets," Economics Discussion Papers 2014-12, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    20. Rizvi, Syed Kumail Abbas & Naqvi, Bushra & Boubaker, Sabri & Mirza, Nawazish, 2022. "The power play of natural gas and crude oil in the move towards the financialization of the energy market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil Demand Shock; Oil Supply Shock; Oil Importing Countries; Oil Exporting Countries; Stock Market Returns;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eco:journ2:2017-05-35. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ilhan Ozturk (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.econjournals.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.