IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eco/journ2/2016-03-7.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Oil Price and Exchange Rates: A Wavelet Analysis for Organisation of Oil Exporting Countries Members

Author

Listed:
  • Basheer H. M. Altarturi

    (Institute of Islamic Banking and Finance, International Islamic University Malaysia, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia,)

  • Ahmad Alrazni Alshammri

    (Institute of Islamic Banking and Finance, International Islamic University Malaysia, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia,)

  • Tuan Muhd Tau ik Tuan Hussin

    (Institute of Islamic Banking and Finance, International Islamic University Malaysia, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia)

  • Buerhan Saiti

    (Institute of Islamic Banking and Finance, International Islamic University Malaysia, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.)

Abstract

This paper studies the relationship between oil price and the exchange rates of Organization of Oil Exporting Countries (OPEC) members from February 1999 to March 2016. The wavelet method is applied to combine information from both time and frequency domains, which does not require stationary and decomposition of original time series data. The study found that the strength of the relationship between oil price and exchange rate divides into three main categories, namely oil price leads exchange rate, exchange rate leads oil prices, and the relationship keeps changing. Countries which currencies pegged to US Dollar are lagging against oil price changes, countries with floating exchange rates and countries with an undisclosed weighted basket of international currencies leads the changes in oil price, and countries which their currencies pegged to special drawing right experience changing relationships. This finding suggests that the central banks of OPEC member countries should give importance to shocks on oil prices, while formulating their own exchange rate policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Basheer H. M. Altarturi & Ahmad Alrazni Alshammri & Tuan Muhd Tau ik Tuan Hussin & Buerhan Saiti, 2016. "Oil Price and Exchange Rates: A Wavelet Analysis for Organisation of Oil Exporting Countries Members," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 6(3), pages 421-430.
    • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ2:2016-03-7
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijeep/article/download/2253/1799
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijeep/article/view/2253/1799
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Backus, David K. & Crucini, Mario J., 2000. "Oil prices and the terms of trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 185-213, February.
    2. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert, 2013. "Is there a homogeneous causality pattern between oil prices and currencies of oil importers and exporters?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 665-678.
    3. Luís Aguiar-Conraria & Maria Soares, 2011. "Oil and the macroeconomy: using wavelets to analyze old issues," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 40(3), pages 645-655, May.
    4. Bodenstein, Martin & Erceg, Christopher J. & Guerrieri, Luca, 2011. "Oil shocks and external adjustment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 168-184, March.
    5. repec:zbw:rwirep:0431 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Q. Farooq Akram, 2004. "Oil prices and exchange rates: Norwegian evidence," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 7(2), pages 476-504, December.
    7. Amano, R. A. & van Norden, S., 1998. "Oil prices and the rise and fall of the US real exchange rate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 299-316, April.
    8. Amano, Robert A. & van Norden, Simon, 1995. "Terms of trade and real exchange rates: the Canadian evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 83-104, February.
    9. Aguiar-Conraria, Luís & Azevedo, Nuno & Soares, Maria Joana, 2008. "Using wavelets to decompose the time–frequency effects of monetary policy," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(12), pages 2863-2878.
    10. Camarero, Mariam & Tamarit, Cecilio, 2002. "Oil prices and Spanish competitiveness: A cointegrated panel analysis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 591-605, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ben Salem, Leila & Zayati, Montassar & Nouira, Ridha & Rault, Christophe, 2024. "Volatility spillover between oil prices and main exchange rates: Evidence from a DCC-GARCH-connectedness approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    2. Mohamed Albaity & Hasan Mustafa, 2018. "International and Macroeconomic Determinants of Oil Price: Evidence from Gulf Cooperation Council Countries," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(1), pages 69-81.
    3. Ahmad Alrazni Alshammari, Basheer Altarturi, Buerhan Saiti, Latifah Munassar, 2020. "The impact of exchange rate, oil price and gold price on the Kuwaiti stock market: a wavelet analysis," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 17(1), pages 31-54, June.
    4. Mpoha, Salifya & Bonga-Bonga, Lumengo, 2021. "Spillover effects from China and the US to global emerging markets: a dynamic analysis," MPRA Paper 109349, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Nisful Laila & Aam S. Rusydiana & Muhamad Iqbal Irfany & Imron HR & Popon Srisusilawati & Muhamad Taqi, 2021. "Energy Economics in Islamic Countries: A Bibliometric Review," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(2), pages 88-95.
    6. Razek, Noha H.A. & McQuinn, Brian, 2021. "Saudi Arabia's currency misalignment and international competitiveness, accounting for geopolitical risks and the super-contango oil market," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jung, Young Cheol & Das, Anupam & McFarlane, Adian, 2020. "The asymmetric relationship between the oil price and the US-Canada exchange rate," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 198-206.
    2. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert L. & Arora, Vipin, 2020. "The relationship between oil prices and exchange rates: Revisiting theory and evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    3. Alfred A. Haug & Syed Abul Basher, 2019. "Exchange rates of oil exporting countries and global oil price shocks: a nonlinear smooth-transition approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(48), pages 5282-5296, October.
    4. Umar Bala & Lee Chin & Ghulam Mustafa, 2022. "Threshold Effects of Oil Price and Oil Export on Trade Balance in Africa," Journal of Economic Impact, Science Impact Publishers, vol. 4(1), pages 14-27.
    5. Basher, Syed Abul & Haug, Alfred A. & Sadorsky, Perry, 2016. "The impact of oil shocks on exchange rates: A Markov-switching approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 11-23.
    6. Magali Dauvin, 2013. "Energy prices and the real exchange rate of commodity-exporting countries," EconomiX Working Papers 2013-33, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    7. Khalid M. Kisswani & Arezou Harraf & Amjad M. Kisswani, 2019. "Revisiting the effects of oil prices on exchange rate: asymmetric evidence from the ASEAN-5 countries," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 52(3), pages 279-300, August.
    8. Narayan, Seema, 2013. "Foreign exchange markets and oil prices in Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 41-50.
    9. Lv, Xin & Lien, Donald & Chen, Qian & Yu, Chang, 2018. "Does exchange rate management affect the causality between exchange rates and oil prices? Evidence from oil-exporting countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 325-343.
    10. Alfred Haug & Syed Basher & Perry Sadorsky, 2016. "The impact of oil price shocks on exchange rates: A non-linear smooth-transition approach," EcoMod2016 9226, EcoMod.
    11. Khalid M. Kisswani, 2016. "Does oil price variability affect ASEAN exchange rates? Evidence from panel cointegration test," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(20), pages 1831-1839, April.
    12. Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Elsayed, Ahmed H. & Gabauer, David & Gozgor, Giray, 2023. "Oil price shocks and exchange rate dynamics: Evidence from decomposed and partial connectedness measures for oil importing and exporting economies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    13. Jungho Baek & Yoon Jung Choi, 2021. "Do fluctuations in crude oil prices have symmetric or asymmetric effects on the real exchange rate? Empirical evidence from Indonesia," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(1), pages 312-325, January.
    14. Chen, Hongtao & Liu, Li & Wang, Yudong & Zhu, Yingming, 2016. "Oil price shocks and U.S. dollar exchange rates," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 1036-1048.
    15. Salma Bibi & Mirajul Haq & Abdul Rashid, 2021. "Oil Price Fluctuation and Current Accounts: Exploring Mediation Effects for Oil Importing Nations," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(3), pages 517-528.
    16. Bouoiyour, Jamal & Selmi, Refk & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2015. "The nexus between oil price and Russia's real exchange rate: Better paths via unconditional vs conditional analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 54-66.
    17. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert, 2013. "Is there a homogeneous causality pattern between oil prices and currencies of oil importers and exporters?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 665-678.
    18. Umar, Zaghum & Bossman, Ahmed, 2023. "Quantile connectedness between oil price shocks and exchange rates," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    19. Lin, Fu-Lai & Chen, Yu-Fen & Yang, Sheng-Yung, 2016. "Does the value of US dollar matter with the price of oil and gold? A dynamic analysis from time–frequency space," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 59-71.
    20. Nusair, Salah A. & Olson, Dennis, 2019. "The effects of oil price shocks on Asian exchange rates: Evidence from quantile regression analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 44-63.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Wavelet Coherence; Oil Price; Exchange Rate; Organization of Oil Exporting Countries;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • Q02 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Commodity Market

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eco:journ2:2016-03-7. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ilhan Ozturk (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.econjournals.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.