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Forecasting Electricity Prices in Deregulated Wholesale Spot Electricity Market: A Review

Author

Listed:
  • Girish Godekere Panchakshara Murthy

    (Department of Finance, IBS Hyderabad, IFHE University, India.)

  • Vijayalakshmi Sedidi

    (Department of Finance, IBS Hyderabad, IFHE University, India.)

Abstract

In the new framework of competitive electricity markets, all power market participants need accurate price forecasting tools. Electricity price forecasts characterize significant information that can help captive power producer, independent power producer, power generation companies, power distribution companies or open access consumers in careful planning of their bidding strategies for maximizing their profits, benefits and utilities from long term, medium term and short term perspective. Short term spot electricity price forecasting techniques are either inspired from electrical engineering literature (i.e. load forecasting) or from economics literature (i.e. game theory models and the time-series econometric models). In this study we investigate the emergence of spot electricity markets with particular emphasis on Indian electricity market which has never been done before and review selected finance and econometrics inspired literature and models for forecasting electricity spot prices in deregulated wholesale spot electricity markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Girish Godekere Panchakshara Murthy & Vijayalakshmi Sedidi, 2014. "Forecasting Electricity Prices in Deregulated Wholesale Spot Electricity Market: A Review," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 4(1), pages 32-42.
    • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ2:2014-01-4
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Mukherjee, Paramita & Coondoo, Dipankor & Lahiri, Poulomi, 2019. "Forecasting Hourly Prices in Indian Spot Electricity Market," MPRA Paper 103161, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. G. P. Girish & P. Sashikala & Bharath Supra & Anitha Acharya, 2015. "Renewable Energy Certifi cate Trading through Power Exchanges in India," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 5(3), pages 805-808.
    3. Alfredo Vi kovic & Vladimir Franki, 2015. "Coal Based Electricity Generation in South East Europe: A Case Study for Croatia," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 5(1), pages 206-230.
    4. David Talavera-Zabre, 2022. "Market-value of Renewables in the Young Mexican Power Market," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 17(4), pages 1-27, Octubre -.
    5. Mara Madaleno & Victor Moutinho & Jorge Mota, 2015. "Time Relationships among Electricity and Fossil Fuel Prices: Industry and Households in Europe," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 5(2), pages 525-533.
    6. Victor Moutinho & Ant nio Carrizo Moreira & Jorge H. Mota, 2015. "Measuring the Simultaneous Quantity Game in OMEL Spot Electricity Market," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 5(1), pages 305-320.
    7. Komain Jiranyakul, 2015. "Oil Price Volatility and Real Effective Exchange Rate: The Case of Thailand," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 5(2), pages 574-579.
    8. Santiago Gall n & Jorge Barrientos, 2021. "Forecasting the Colombian Electricity Spot Price under a Functional Approach," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(2), pages 67-74.
    9. Brown, David P. & Cajueiro, Daniel O. & Eckert, Andrew & Silveira, Douglas, 2024. "Evaluating the Role of Information Disclosure on Bidding Behavior in Wholesale Electricity Markets," Working Papers 2024-2, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
    10. Jorge Barrientos Marin & Elkin Tabares Orozco & Esteban Velilla, 2018. "Forecasting electricity price in Colombia: A comparison between Neural Network, ARMA process and Hybrid Models," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(3), pages 97-106.
    11. Claudio Monteiro & Ignacio J. Ramirez-Rosado & L. Alfredo Fernandez-Jimenez, 2018. "Probabilistic Electricity Price Forecasting Models by Aggregation of Competitive Predictors," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-25, April.
    12. S. Vijayalakshmi & G. P. Girish, 2015. "Artificial Neural Networks for Spot Electricity Price Forecasting: A Review," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 5(4), pages 1092-1097.
    13. G P Girish & Aviral Kumar Tiwari, 2016. "A comparison of different univariate forecasting models forSpot Electricity Price in India," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(2), pages 1039-1057.
    14. G. P. Girish & S. Vijayalakshmi, 2015. "Role of Energy Exchanges for Power Trading in India," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 5(3), pages 673-676.
    15. Kılıç Depren, Serpil & Kartal, Mustafa Tevfik & Ertuğrul, Hasan Murat & Depren, Özer, 2022. "The role of data frequency and method selection in electricity price estimation: Comparative evidence from Turkey in pre-pandemic and pandemic periods," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 186(C), pages 217-225.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    spot price; electricity; forecasting; power market;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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