IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eco/journ1/2023-05-13.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Revisiting the Causality between Oil Prices and Stock Markets in Selected MENA Countries: A Bootstrap Rolling-window Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Abderrazek Ben Hamouda

    (Faculty of Economics and Management of Tunis, University of Tunis El Manar, Tunis, Tunisia.)

Abstract

The main objective of this paper is to explore the dynamic causality between the fluctuations in oil prices and the trends observed in stock market indices of selected economies with oil-related characteristics. These countries include oil-importing nations such as Egypt and Tunisia, as well as one oil-exporting country, namely Oman. Our study uses monthly data spanning from January 2008 to February 2022. To investigate this causality, we adopt the rolling-window bootstrap causality test. The empirical results reveal that the causal relationship between stock market indices and oil prices is not stable, but rather fluctuates over time. Remarkably, these variations in causality coincide to important events, such as the sovereign debt crisis and the Covid-19 pandemic. This suggests that external shocks and exceptional events significantly influence the causal dynamics between oil prices and stock market in these countries. It is, therefore, crucial for policymakers and investors to take into account periods of economic uncertainty and major world events into their decision-making process. By adopting a proactive approach and carefully monitoring global economic indicators, they will be able to anticipate risks, adjust their strategies to meet economic challenges.

Suggested Citation

  • Abderrazek Ben Hamouda, 2023. "Revisiting the Causality between Oil Prices and Stock Markets in Selected MENA Countries: A Bootstrap Rolling-window Approach," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 13(5), pages 109-118, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ1:2023-05-13
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijefi/article/download/14934/7532
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijefi/article/view/14934
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hamilton, James D., 1996. "This is what happened to the oil price-macroeconomy relationship," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 215-220, October.
    2. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    3. Mantalos Panagiotis, 2000. "A Graphical Investigation of the Size and Power of the Granger-Causality Tests in Integrated-Cointegrated VAR Systems," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 1-18, April.
    4. Lardic, Sandrine & Mignon, Valerie, 2006. "The impact of oil prices on GDP in European countries: An empirical investigation based on asymmetric cointegration," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(18), pages 3910-3915, December.
    5. Lutz Kilian & Cheolbeom Park, 2009. "The Impact Of Oil Price Shocks On The U.S. Stock Market," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1267-1287, November.
    6. Yong Su & Jacob Cherian & Muhammad Safdar Sial & Alina Badulescu & Phung Anh Thu & Daniel Badulescu & Sarminah Samad, 2021. "Does Tourism Affect Economic Growth of China? A Panel Granger Causality Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-12, January.
    7. Donald W. Jones, Paul N. Leiby and Inja K. Paik, 2004. "Oil Price Shocks and the Macroeconomy: What Has Been Learned Since 1996," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 1-32.
    8. Walid Chkili, 2022. "The links between gold, oil prices and Islamic stock markets in a regime switching environment," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 12(1), pages 169-186, March.
    9. Rodrigo da Silva Souza & Leonardo Bornacki Mattos, 2023. "Macroeconomic effects of oil price shocks on an emerging market economy," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 803-824, April.
    10. Bouri, Elie, 2015. "Return and volatility linkages between oil prices and the Lebanese stock market in crisis periods," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 365-371.
    11. An, Lian & Jin, Xiaoze & Ren, Xiaomei, 2014. "Are the macroeconomic effects of oil price shock symmetric?: A Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 217-228.
    12. Lardic, Sandrine & Mignon, Valérie, 2008. "Oil prices and economic activity: An asymmetric cointegration approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 847-855, May.
    13. Andrews, Donald W K & Ploberger, Werner, 1994. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only under the Alternative," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1383-1414, November.
    14. Hedi Arouri, Mohamed El & Khuong Nguyen, Duc, 2010. "Oil prices, stock markets and portfolio investment: Evidence from sector analysis in Europe over the last decade," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 4528-4539, August.
    15. Balcilar, Mehmet & Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin & Arslanturk, Yalcin, 2010. "Economic growth and energy consumption causal nexus viewed through a bootstrap rolling window," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1398-1410, November.
    16. Togonidze, Sophio & Kočenda, Evžen, 2022. "Macroeconomic responses of emerging market economies to oil price shocks: An analysis by region and resource profile," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 46(3).
    17. Malik, Farooq & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2007. "Shock and volatility transmission in the oil, US and Gulf equity markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 357-368.
    18. Wei Su, Chi & Wang, Xiao-Qing & Tao, Ran & Oana-Ramona, Lobonţ, 2019. "Do oil prices drive agricultural commodity prices? Further evidence in a global bio-energy context," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 691-701.
    19. Silvapulle, Param & Smyth, Russell & Zhang, Xibin & Fenech, Jean-Pierre, 2017. "Nonparametric panel data model for crude oil and stock market prices in net oil importing countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 255-267.
    20. Cologni, Alessandro & Manera, Matteo, 2008. "Oil prices, inflation and interest rates in a structural cointegrated VAR model for the G-7 countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 856-888, May.
    21. Silvennoinen, Annastiina & Thorp, Susan, 2013. "Financialization, crisis and commodity correlation dynamics," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 42-65.
    22. Xiaohai Sun & Yang Chenggang & Anwar Khan & Jamal Hussain & Sadia Bano, 2021. "The role of tourism, and natural resources in the energy-pollution-growth nexus: an analysis of belt and road initiative countries," Journal of Environmental Planning and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 64(6), pages 999-1020, May.
    23. Miller, J. Isaac & Ratti, Ronald A., 2009. "Crude oil and stock markets: Stability, instability, and bubbles," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 559-568, July.
    24. Ghazi Shukur & Panagiotis Mantalos, 2000. "A simple investigation of the Granger-causality test in integrated-cointegrated VAR systems," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(8), pages 1021-1031.
    25. François Lescaroux & Valérie Mignon, 2008. "On the Influence of Oil Prices on Economic Activity and Other Macroeconomic and Financial Variables," Working Papers 2008-05, CEPII research center.
    26. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-856, July.
    27. Hansen, Bruce E, 2002. "Tests for Parameter Instability in Regressions with I(1) Processes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 45-59, January.
    28. Lee, Bi-Juan & Yang, Chin Wei & Huang, Bwo-Nung, 2012. "Oil price movements and stock markets revisited: A case of sector stock price indexes in the G-7 countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1284-1300.
    29. Mensi, Walid & Al-Yahyaee, Khamis Hamed & Vo, Xuan Vinh & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2021. "Modeling the frequency dynamics of spillovers and connectedness between crude oil and MENA stock markets with portfolio implications," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 397-419.
    30. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
    31. Sadorsky, Perry, 1999. "Oil price shocks and stock market activity," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 449-469, October.
    32. K.P. Prabheesh & Rakesh Padhan & Bhavesh Garg, 2021. "COVID-19 and the Oil Price – Stock Market Nexus - Evidence From Net Oil-Importing Countries," Energy RESEARCH LETTERS, Asia-Pacific Applied Economics Association, vol. 1(1), pages 1-4.
    33. Panagiotis Rafailidis & Constantinos Katrakilidis, 2014. "The relationship between oil prices and stock prices: a nonlinear asymmetric cointegration approach," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(12), pages 793-800, June.
    34. Jones, Charles M & Kaul, Gautam, 1996. "Oil and the Stock Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(2), pages 463-491, June.
    35. Roger D. Huang & Ronald W. Masulis & Hans R. Stoll, 1996. "Energy shocks and financial markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(1), pages 1-27, February.
    36. Mehmet Balcilar & Zeynel Ozdemir, 2013. "The export-output growth nexus in Japan: a bootstrap rolling window approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 639-660, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Ýsmail H. Gençb, 2016. "The links between crude oil prices and GCC stock markets: Evidence from time-varying Granger causality tests," Working Papers 15-30, Eastern Mediterranean University, Department of Economics.
    2. Riadh El Abed & Noura Harboub, 2022. "Time varying causality between Economic policy uncertainty and stock prices in BRIC countries: A rolling-window bootstrap approach," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 42(4), pages 1767-1781.
    3. Boldanov, Rustam & Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George, 2016. "Time-varying correlation between oil and stock market volatilities: Evidence from oil-importing and oil-exporting countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 209-220.
    4. Suliman Zakaria S. Abdalla, 2014. "The Impact of Oil Price Fluctuations on the Sudanese Stock Market Performance," Working Papers 887, Economic Research Forum, revised Dec 2014.
    5. Filis, George & Degiannakis, Stavros & Floros, Christos, 2011. "Dynamic correlation between stock market and oil prices: The case of oil-importing and oil-exporting countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 152-164, June.
    6. George Filis & Ioannis Chatziantoniou, 2014. "Financial and monetary policy responses to oil price shocks: evidence from oil-importing and oil-exporting countries," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 42(4), pages 709-729, May.
    7. Lang, Korbinian & Auer, Benjamin R., 2020. "The economic and financial properties of crude oil: A review," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    8. Stavros Degiannakis & George Filis & Vipin Arora, 2018. "Oil Prices and Stock Markets: A Review of the Theory and Empirical Evidence," The Energy Journal, , vol. 39(5), pages 85-130, September.
    9. Sukcharoen, Kunlapath & Zohrabyan, Tatevik & Leatham, David & Wu, Ximing, 2014. "Interdependence of oil prices and stock market indices: A copula approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 331-339.
    10. Balcilar, Mehmet & Demirer, Rıza & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2019. "Quantile relationship between oil and stock returns: Evidence from emerging and frontier stock markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    11. Dagher, Leila & El Hariri, Sadika, 2013. "The impact of global oil price shocks on the Lebanese stock market," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 366-374.
    12. Leila Dagher & Ibrahim Jamali & Nasser Badra, 2020. "The Predictive Power of Oil and Commodity Prices for Equity Markets," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Stéphane Goutte & Khaled Guesmi (ed.), Risk Factors and Contagion in Commodity Markets and Stocks Markets, chapter 3, pages 47-82, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    13. Naser, Hanan & Ahmed, Abdul Rashid, 2016. "Oil Price Shocks and Stock Market Performance in Emerging Economies: Some Evidence using FAVAR Models," MPRA Paper 77868, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Manel Youssef & Khaled Mokni, 2019. "Do Crude Oil Prices Drive the Relationship between Stock Markets of Oil-Importing and Oil-Exporting Countries?," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(3), pages 1-22, July.
    15. Mohamed Arouri & Christophe Rault, 2010. "Oil Prices and Stock Markets: What Drives What in the Gulf Corporation Council Countries," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 122, pages 41-56.
    16. Xiao-lin Li & Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Tsangyao Chang, 2016. "The Causal Relationship Between Economic Policy Uncertainty and Stock Returns in China and India: Evidence from a Bootstrap Rolling Window Approach," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(3), pages 674-689, March.
    17. Zhu, Huiming & Huang, Hui & Peng, Cheng & Yang, Yan, 2016. "Extreme dependence between crude oil and stock markets in Asia-Pacific regions: Evidence from quantile regression," Economics Discussion Papers 2016-46, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    18. Yingying Xu & Zhi-Xin Liu & Hsu-Ling Chang & Adelina Dumitrescu Peculea & Chi-Wei Su, 2017. "Does self-fulfilment of the inflation expectation exist?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(11), pages 1098-1113, March.
    19. Su, Chi-Wei & Wang, Xiao-Qing & Tao, Ran & Chang, Hsu-Ling, 2019. "Does money supply drive housing prices in China?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 85-94.
    20. Wang, Kai-Hua & Liu, Lu & Li, Xin & Oana-Ramona, Lobonţ, 2022. "Do oil price shocks drive unemployment? Evidence from Russia and Canada," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 253(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stock Market; Oil Prices; Oil Importing and Exporting Countries; Bootstrap Rolling-Window Approach;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eco:journ1:2023-05-13. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ilhan Ozturk (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.econjournals.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.