IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eco/journ1/2017-05-57.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Short and Long-Term Relationships among the Surety Bond Market, the Building Sector, and Relevant Nominal Variables Related to the Construction Industry: The Mexican Case (2006-2014)

Author

Listed:
  • Marco Antonio Alejo-Garc a

    (Erasmus University Rotterdam, Holland,)

  • Francisco Venegas-Mart nez

    (Instituto Polit cnico Naciona)

  • Salvador Cruz-Ak

    (Mexico, Instituto Polit cnico Nacional, Mexico.)

Abstract

This paper is aimed at examining the relationship among the surety bond market, the building sector, and several important nominal variables related to the construction industry en M xico during 2006-2014. To do this, we use Vector Autoregressive (VAR) and cointegration models in order to find short- and long-run relationships. We also perform a Granger causality analysis and an impulse-response examination, as well as variance decomposition. The main finding is that the surety industry responds to changes in: GDP from construction, credits for the construction sector, revenues of the private construction, and credit defaults. We also find empirical evidence that in the long run the surety industry reacts to: the government investment, the default in this industry, and the interest rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Marco Antonio Alejo-Garc a & Francisco Venegas-Mart nez & Salvador Cruz-Ak, 2017. "Short and Long-Term Relationships among the Surety Bond Market, the Building Sector, and Relevant Nominal Variables Related to the Construction Industry: The Mexican Case (2006-2014)," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(5), pages 485-497.
    • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ1:2017-05-57
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijefi/article/download/5646/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijefi/article/view/5646/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-673, September.
    2. Ming-Chi Chen & Kanak Patel, 1998. "House Price Dynamics and Granger Causality: An Analysis of Taipei New Dwelling Market," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 1(1), pages 101-126.
    3. Adams, Zeno & Füss, Roland, 2010. "Macroeconomic determinants of international housing markets," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 38-50, March.
    4. Blanchard, Olivier Jean, 1989. "A Traditional Interpretation of Macroeconomic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(5), pages 1146-1164, December.
    5. Kwabena Asomanin Anaman & Charity Osei-Amponsah, 2007. "Analysis of the causality links between the growth of the construction industry and the growth of the macro-economy in Ghana," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(9), pages 951-961.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Evans, Charles L. & Marshall, David A., 2007. "Economic determinants of the nominal treasury yield curve," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 1986-2003, October.
    2. Echavarría-Soto, Juan José & López, Enrique & Ocampo, Sergio & Rodríguez-Niño, Norberto, 2012. "Choques, instituciones laborales y desempleo en Colombia," Chapters, in: Arango-Thomas, Luis Eduardo & Hamann-Salcedo, Franz Alonso (ed.), El mercado de trabajo en Colombia : hechos, tendencias e instituciones, chapter 18, pages 753-794, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    3. Canova, Fabio & de Nicolo, Gianni, 2003. "On the sources of business cycles in the G-7," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 77-100, January.
    4. Bergman, Michael, 1996. "International evidence on the sources of macroeconomic fluctuations," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 1237-1258, June.
    5. Tripier, Fabien, 2006. "Sticky prices, fair wages, and the co-movements of unemployment and labor productivity growth," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(12), pages 2749-2774, December.
    6. Mishra, Prachi & Montiel, Peter & Pedroni, Peter & Spilimbergo, Antonio, 2014. "Monetary policy and bank lending rates in low-income countries: Heterogeneous panel estimates," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 117-131.
    7. K. Peren Arin & Faik Koray, 2005. "Fiscal Policy And Economic Activity: Us Evidence," CAMA Working Papers 2005-09, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    8. Jordi Gali, 1999. "Technology, Employment, and the Business Cycle: Do Technology Shocks Explain Aggregate Fluctuations?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(1), pages 249-271, March.
    9. Emanuele BACCHIOCCHI & Riccardo Jack LUCCHETTI, 2015. "Structure-Based SVAR Identification," Departmental Working Papers 2015-11, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano.
    10. Algan, Yann, 2002. "How well does the aggregate demand-aggregate supply framework explain unemployment fluctuations? A France-United States comparison," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 153-177, January.
    11. Ambler, Steven & Cardia, Emanuela & Phaneuf, Louis, 1992. "Contrats de salaire, croissance endogène et fluctuations," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 68(1), pages 175-204, mars et j.
    12. Céline Choulet, 2006. "Public jobs creation and unemployment dynamics," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00113357, HAL.
    13. Keivan Deravi & Charles E. Hegji, 1992. "The Inflationary Impact Of Oil Price Shocks: A Vector Autoregressive Study," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 2(1), pages 1-16, September.
    14. Edward N. Gamber, 1996. "The policy content of the yield curve slope," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 5(2), pages 163-179.
    15. Jeremy Smith & Chris Murphy, 1994. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations in the Australian Economy," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 70(209), pages 133-148, June.
    16. Geert Bekaert & Eric Engstrom & Andrey Ermolov, 2020. "Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply Effects of COVID-19: A Real-time Analysis," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-049, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    17. Ribba, Antonio, 2007. "Permanent disinflationary effects on unemployment in a small open economy: Italy 1979-1995," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 66-81, January.
    18. Dawid J. van Lill, 2017. "Changes in the Liquidity Effect Over Time: Evidence from Four Monetary Policy Regimes," Working Papers 704, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    19. Claude Diebolt & Antoine Parent & Jamel Trabelsi, 2011. "Comment la croissance américaine aurait-elle réagi à une politique monétaire expansionniste en 1929 ?. Les enseignements cliométriques d'une simulation svar," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 62(6), pages 1081-1093.
    20. Frédérique Bec & Jean-Olivier Hairault, 1993. "Taux d'intérêt, politique monétaire et activité économique en France : un examen empirique," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 109(3), pages 13-24.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Surety Markets; Building Sector; Nominal Variables; Time Series Analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eco:journ1:2017-05-57. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ilhan Ozturk (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.econjournals.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.