IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eco/journ1/2017-02-46.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

An Analysis of the Relationship of Imports and Economic Growth in Iran (Comparison of Systematic and Unsystematic Cointegration Methods with Neural Network)

Author

Listed:
  • Nasser Ebrahimi

Abstract

The present study is intended to analyse the relationship of imports and economic growth in Iran using systematic and unsystematic cointegration methods and neural networks and to compare them with each other. The data used in this study are the real gross domestic product (GDP) and the total imports of Islamic Republic of Iran during the years 1961 to 2010. In this study, the concerned time series were tested by unit root testing. Then the data were examined and the results were analysed using an autoregressive distributed lag modelling (ARDL), error correction model (ECM), and maximum likelihood method of Johansen-Julius. The statistical and estimated processes of the present study were carried out using Microfit and EViews 7 software.The artificial neural networks were also modelled by MATLAB software. The findings show that no cointegration relationship is supported between GDP and imports when the real GDP is a dependent variable and total import is an independent variable. However, the existence of cointegration relationship between total import and real GDP is supported when the total import is a dependent variable and the GDP is an independent variable. The use of neural network for modelling of the relationship of two variables shows a reliable result.

Suggested Citation

  • Nasser Ebrahimi, 2017. "An Analysis of the Relationship of Imports and Economic Growth in Iran (Comparison of Systematic and Unsystematic Cointegration Methods with Neural Network)," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(2), pages 338-347.
    • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ1:2017-02-46
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijefi/article/download/4458/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijefi/article/view/4458/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jeffrey A. Frankel, David Romer and Teresa Cyrus., 1995. "Trade and Growth in East Asian Countries: Cause and Effect?," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C95-050, University of California at Berkeley.
    2. Mazumdar, Joy, 2001. "Imported machinery and growth in LDCs," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 209-224, June.
    3. Lee, Jong-Wha, 1995. "Capital goods imports and long-run growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 91-110, October.
    4. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Chang, Chun-Ping & Chen, Pei-Fen, 2008. "Energy-income causality in OECD countries revisited: The key role of capital stock," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2359-2373, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Meilina Retno Hapsari & Suci Astutik & Loekito Adi Soehono, 2020. "Estimation of VECM Parameter Using Bayesian Approach: An Application to Analysis of Macroeconomic Variables," International Journal of Statistics and Probability, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 9(6), pages 113-113, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Co, Catherine Y., 2014. "Supply-side constraints, capital goods imports, and the quality of Sub-Saharan African countries exports," WIDER Working Paper Series 142, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    2. Maria Jesus Herrerias & Vicente Orts, 2011. "The driving forces behind China’s growth," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 19(1), pages 79-124, January.
    3. NguyenHuu, Tams & Karaman Örsal, Deniz Dilan, 2020. "A new and benign hegemon on the horizon? The Chinese century and growth in the Global South," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 14, pages 1-35.
    4. Hildegunn Ekroll Stokke & Jørn Rattsø & Xinshen Diao, 2001. "Learning by Exporting and Productivity-investment Interaction: An Intertemporal General Equilibrium Analysis of the Growth Process in Thailand," Working Paper Series 2302, Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology.
    5. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & Izquierdo, Alejandro & Fofack, Hippolyte, 2003. "The integrated macroeconomic model for poverty analysis : a quantitative macroeconomic framework for the analysis of poverty reduction strategies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3092, The World Bank.
    6. Hasan, Rana, 2002. "The impact of imported and domestic technologies on the productivity of firms: panel data evidence from Indian manufacturing firms," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 23-49, October.
    7. Klaus Wälde & Christina Wood, 2004. "The empirics of trade and growth: where are the policy recommendations?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 275-292, January.
    8. Baghish Ahmadov, 2024. "The Impact of Oil Prices on the Import of Capital Goods in Azerbaijan," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 14(3), pages 512-517, May.
    9. Herrerias, M.J. & Orts, Vicente, 2011. "Imports and growth in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2811-2819.
    10. Dulleck, Uwe & Foster, Neil, 2008. "Imported Equipment, Human Capital and Economic Growth in Developing Countries," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 233-250, September.
    11. Shimaa Elkomy & Hilary Ingham & Robert Read, 2020. "The Impact of Foreign Technology & Embodied R&D On Productivity in Internationally-Oriented & High-Technology Industries in Egypt, 2006-2009," Working Papers 293574925, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    12. Herrerias, M.J. & Orts, Vicente, 2013. "Capital goods imports and long-run growth: Is the Chinese experience relevant to developing countries?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 781-797.
    13. Biswajit Maitra & Moutushi Chakraborty, 2021. "International trade, human capital and economic growth in Sri Lanka," International Journal of Economic Policy Studies, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 405-426, September.
    14. Osvaldo Lagares, 2016. "Capital, Economic Growth and Relative Income Differences in Latin America," Discussion Papers 16/03, Department of Economics, University of York.
    15. Jiranyakul, Komain, 2011. "Are Thai Manufacturing Exports and Imports of Capital Goods Related?," MPRA Paper 45654, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. AGENOR Pierre-Richard & IZQUIERDO Alejandro & FOFACK Hippolyte, 2010. "IMMPA: A Quantitative Macroeconomic Framework for the Analysis of Poverty Reduction Strategies," EcoMod2003 330700003, EcoMod.
    17. R. Rijesh, 2021. "Liberalization, Import of Capital Goods, and Industrial Exports: Evidence from Indian Manufacturing Sectors," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 13(1), pages 81-103, January.
    18. Chen, Derek H. C. & Dahlman, Carl J., 2004. "Knowledge and development : a cross-section approach," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3366, The World Bank.
    19. Óscar Afonso, 2001. "The Impact of International Trade on Economic Growth," FEP Working Papers 106, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    20. Kym Anderson, 2016. "Agricultural Trade, Policy Reforms, and Global Food Security," Palgrave Studies in Agricultural Economics and Food Policy, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-1-137-46925-0.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic Growth; Total Import; Autoregressive Distributed Lab Modelling (ARDL); Error Correction Model (ECM); Artificial Neural Networks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eco:journ1:2017-02-46. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ilhan Ozturk (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.econjournals.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.