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An Analysis of the Relationship of Imports and Economic Growth in Iran (Comparison of Systematic and Unsystematic Cointegration Methods with Neural Network)

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  • Nasser Ebrahimi

Abstract

The present study is intended to analyse the relationship of imports and economic growth in Iran using systematic and unsystematic cointegration methods and neural networks and to compare them with each other. The data used in this study are the real gross domestic product (GDP) and the total imports of Islamic Republic of Iran during the years 1961 to 2010. In this study, the concerned time series were tested by unit root testing. Then the data were examined and the results were analysed using an autoregressive distributed lag modelling (ARDL), error correction model (ECM), and maximum likelihood method of Johansen-Julius. The statistical and estimated processes of the present study were carried out using Microfit and EViews 7 software.The artificial neural networks were also modelled by MATLAB software. The findings show that no cointegration relationship is supported between GDP and imports when the real GDP is a dependent variable and total import is an independent variable. However, the existence of cointegration relationship between total import and real GDP is supported when the total import is a dependent variable and the GDP is an independent variable. The use of neural network for modelling of the relationship of two variables shows a reliable result.

Suggested Citation

  • Nasser Ebrahimi, 2017. "An Analysis of the Relationship of Imports and Economic Growth in Iran (Comparison of Systematic and Unsystematic Cointegration Methods with Neural Network)," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(2), pages 338-347.
    • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ1:2017-02-46
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Romer, David & Cyrus, Teresa, 1995. "Trade and Growth in East Asian Countries: Cause and Effect?," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers 233408, University of California-Berkeley, Department of Economics.
    2. Lee, Jong-Wha, 1995. "Capital goods imports and long-run growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 91-110, October.
    3. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Chang, Chun-Ping & Chen, Pei-Fen, 2008. "Energy-income causality in OECD countries revisited: The key role of capital stock," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2359-2373, September.
    4. Mazumdar, Joy, 2001. "Imported machinery and growth in LDCs," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 209-224, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Meilina Retno Hapsari & Suci Astutik & Loekito Adi Soehono, 2020. "Estimation of VECM Parameter Using Bayesian Approach: An Application to Analysis of Macroeconomic Variables," International Journal of Statistics and Probability, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 9(6), pages 113-113, November.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic Growth; Total Import; Autoregressive Distributed Lab Modelling (ARDL); Error Correction Model (ECM); Artificial Neural Networks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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