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Methodological Approaches to the Diagnosis and Forecast of the Long-Wave Fluctuations in the Economy

Author

Listed:
  • Marat Rashitovich Safiullin

    (Vice-Rector on Economic and Strategic Development, Kazan Federal University, Kremlevskaya, 8, Kazan, 420008, Russian Federation,)

  • Leonid Alekseevich Elshin

    (Director at the Center for Strategic Studies and Forecasts, Institute of Management, Economics and Finance, Kazan Federal University, Kremlevskaya, 8, Kazan, 420008, Russian Federation,)

  • Leonid Alekseevich Elshin

    (Department of Economics, University of Management TISBI , Kremlevskaya, 8, Kazan, 420008, Russian Federation,)

  • Elvira Gumarovna Nikiforova

    (Department of General Management, Institute of Management, Economics and Finance, Kazan Federal University, Kremlevskaya, 8, Kazan, 420008, Russian Federation)

Abstract

Evolutionary development of economic systems demonstrates the cyclical nature in time. In such a case these cyclical fluctuations comprise all facets of economic relations, starting from the production sector and ending the sphere of services, focused on ensuring the interaction effectiveness of economic relations. As the modern world experience shows the cyclical dynamics has a number of its individual features depending on a wide range of factors, such as the type of economic system (planned or market), market type, forms and methods of state or other effects on the regulation of cycles within smoothing process, etc. The knowledge of these factors, the nature of their origin and the impact on the long-term cyclical fluctuations is not a trivial matter and requires a comprehensive system analysis, based on a synthesis and a dialectic of the established approaches.

Suggested Citation

  • Marat Rashitovich Safiullin & Leonid Alekseevich Elshin & Leonid Alekseevich Elshin & Elvira Gumarovna Nikiforova, 2016. "Methodological Approaches to the Diagnosis and Forecast of the Long-Wave Fluctuations in the Economy," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 6(4), pages 1616-1624.
    • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ1:2016-04-43
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Бабецкая-Кухарчук О. А. & Морель М., 2004. "Роль Рыночных Институтов В Процессе Интеграции России В Мировую Экономику," Higher School of Economics Economic Journal Экономический журнал Высшей школы экономики, CyberLeninka;Федеральное государственное автономное образовательное учреждение высшего образования «Национальный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики», vol. 8(2), pages 197-224.
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    Cited by:

    1. E.M. Akhmetshin & D.K. Dzhavatov & E.A. Sverdlikova & M.S. Sokolov & O.A. Avdeeva & G.P. Yavkin, 2018. "The Influence of Innovation on Social and Economic Development of the Russian Regions," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(Special 2), pages 767-776.

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      More about this item

      Keywords

      Long-term Cycles; Phase Shifts; Advanced Development Cycles; Technological Modes;
      All these keywords.

      JEL classification:

      • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
      • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
      • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
      • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
      • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General

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