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An Empirical Analysis of the ASEAN-4's Causality between Exports and Output Growth

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  • Tri-Dung Lam

    (Department of Banking & Finance, School of Business, American University of Ras Al Khaimah, United Arab Emirates)

Abstract

This paper specifically focuses on analyzing the causality between real gross domestic product (GDP) and real export of goods and services of the ASEAN-4 countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and the Philippines) by using comprehensive econometric techniques such as the unit root test, cointegration test, and error correction model. This study reveals that for short-run dynamics, while bi-directional Granger-causality exists in Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand; the unidirectional Granger-causality runs from GDP growth to EXP growth for Indonesia. While the long-run relationship shows a bidirectional Granger-causality between GDP and EXP growth for Malaysia and Thailand, GDP growth Granger-caused EXP growth for Indonesia and an inverse relationship exists between these two variables for the Philippines

Suggested Citation

  • Tri-Dung Lam, 2016. "An Empirical Analysis of the ASEAN-4's Causality between Exports and Output Growth," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 6(2), pages 497-502.
    • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ1:2016-02-19
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jaleel Ahmad & Somchai Harnhirun, 1996. "Cointegration and Causality between Exports and Economic Growth: Evidence from the ASEAN Countries," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 29(s1), pages 413-416, April.
    2. Lorna E. Amrinto & Hector O. Zapata, 2006. "A semiparametric assessment of export-led growth in the Philippines," Philippine Review of Economics, University of the Philippines School of Economics and Philippine Economic Society, vol. 43(2), pages 1-22, December.
    3. Ahmad, Jaleel & Kwan, Andy C. C., 1991. "Causality between exports and economic growth : Empirical evidence from Africa," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 243-248, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Innocent.U.Duru & Uka Ezenwe, 2020. "Empirical Investigation of the Impact of Exports on Economic Growth: Evidence from Nigeria, 1980-2016," International Journal of Publication and Social Studies, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 5(1), pages 18-43, March.
    2. Bakari, Sayef, 2017. "The Impact of Olive Oil Exports on Economic Growth: Empirical Analysis from Tunisia," MPRA Paper 82812, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Oct 2017.
    3. Innocent.U.Duru & Peter Siyan, 2019. "Empirical Investigation of Exports and Economic Growth: Evidence from Sane Countries, 1980-2016," Asian Development Policy Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 7(4), pages 318-354, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    ASEAN-4; Causality; Exports-output Growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development
    • O2 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
    • O5 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies

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