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A Model of the Crude Oil Market in Which Market Conduct Varies

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  • Geroski, Paul A
  • Ulph, Alistair M
  • Ulph, David T

Abstract

This paper describes a model which first identifies (in an estimatable manner) parameters which describe the conduct each decision maker in an oligopoly expects from it's rivals, and then allows them to vary in a systematic fashion across rivals and over time. The model is applied to ten producing countries in the crude oil market (1966I to 1981III ). A fully dynamic demand system is estimated, together with equations describing price choice and variations in conduct, and the null hypothesis of constant conduct is rejected against the more general alternative proposed here. Copyright 1987 by Royal Economic Society.

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  • Geroski, Paul A & Ulph, Alistair M & Ulph, David T, 1987. "A Model of the Crude Oil Market in Which Market Conduct Varies," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 97(388a), pages 77-86, Supplemen.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecj:econjl:v:97:y:1987:i:388a:p:77-86
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    1. Dagoumas, Athanasios & Perifanis, Theodosios & Polemis, Michael, 2017. "An econometric model to assess the Saudi Arabia crude oil strategy," MPRA Paper 86283, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Bandyopadhyay, Kaushik Ranjan, 2009. "Does OPEC act as a Residual Producer?," MPRA Paper 25841, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2010.
    3. Alonso-Alvarez, Irma & Di Nino, Virginia & Venditti, Fabrizio, 2022. "Strategic interactions and price dynamics in the global oil market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    4. Kisswani, Khalid M. & Lahiani, Amine & Mefteh-Wali, Salma, 2022. "An analysis of OPEC oil production reaction to non-OPEC oil supply," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    5. Alkhathlan, Khalid & Gately, Dermot & Javid, Muhammad, 2014. "Analysis of Saudi Arabia's behavior within OPEC and the world oil market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 209-225.
    6. Mr. Jon Strand, 2008. "Importer and Producer Petroleum Taxation: A Geo-Political Model," IMF Working Papers 2008/035, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Erich J. Muehlegger, 2004. "Gasoline Price Spikes and Regional Gasoline Content Regulations - A Structural Approach," Working Papers 0421, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research.
    8. Elbeck, Matt, 2010. "Advancing the design of a dynamic petro-dollar currency basket," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 1938-1945, April.
    9. Bharati, Rakesh & Crain, Susan J. & Kaminski, Vincent, 2012. "Clustering in crude oil prices and the target pricing zone hypothesis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 1115-1123.
    10. Comincioli, Nicola & Hagspiel, Verena & Kort, Peter M. & Menoncin, Francesco & Miniaci, Raffaele & Vergalli, Sergio, 2021. "Mothballing in a Duopoly: Evidence from a (Shale) Oil Market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    11. Reynolds, Douglas B. & Pippenger, Michael K., 2010. "OPEC and Venezuelan oil production: Evidence against a cartel hypothesis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(10), pages 6045-6055, October.
    12. Chevillon, Guillaume & Rifflart, Christine, 2009. "Physical market determinants of the price of crude oil and the market premium," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 537-549, July.
    13. Christiane Baumeister & Gert Peersman, 2013. "The Role Of Time‐Varying Price Elasticities In Accounting For Volatility Changes In The Crude Oil Market," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(7), pages 1087-1109, November.
    14. Strand, Jon, 2010. "Optimal fossil-fuel taxation with backstop technologies and tenure risk," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 418-422, March.
    15. Kaushik Ranjan Bandyopadhyay, 2022. "Oil and Gas Markets and COVID-19: A Critical Rumination on Drivers, Triggers, and Volatility," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-21, April.
    16. Ghoddusi, Hamed & Nili, Masoud & Rastad, Mahdi, 2017. "On quota violations of OPEC members," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 410-422.
    17. Dagoumas, Athanasios & Perifanis, Theodosios & Polemis, Michael, 2018. "An econometric analysis of the Saudi Arabia's crude oil strategy," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 265-273.
    18. Durand-Lasserve, Olivier & Pierru, Axel, 2021. "Modeling world oil market questions: An economic perspective," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    19. Kaufmann, Robert K., 1995. "A model of the world oil market for project LINK Integrating economics, geology and politics," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 165-178, April.
    20. Okullo, Samuel J. & Reynès, Frédéric, 2016. "Imperfect cartelization in OPEC," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 333-344.
    21. T. Rao & Saraswati Singh, 1990. "CORE vs. MLE for decision models under uncertainty," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 51(2), pages 145-158, June.
    22. Parnes, Dror, 2019. "Heterogeneous noncompliance with OPEC's oil production cuts," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 289-300.
    23. Loutia, Amine & Mellios, Constantin & Andriosopoulos, Kostas, 2016. "Do OPEC announcements influence oil prices?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 262-272.

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