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Official Crime Statistics: Their Use and Interpretation

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  • Ziggy MacDonald

    (University of Leicester)

Abstract

In this paper we consider the data used by economists to estimate economic models of crime. We discuss the main sources of Official Crime Statistics in the United Kingdom, Europe and the United States, and raise questions about the reliability of these data for estimation and forecasting purposes. In particular, we focus on the disparity between crime rates suggested by victimisation surveys and the rates suggested by Official Statistics, and show that this is primarily a consequence of under-reporting by victims and under-recording by the police. We conclude our analysis by considering the factors that influence the under-reporting of crime. Copyright Royal Economic Society 2002

Suggested Citation

  • Ziggy MacDonald, 2002. "Official Crime Statistics: Their Use and Interpretation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(477), pages 85-106, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecj:econjl:v:112:y:2002:i:477:p:f85-f106
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ziggy MacDonald, 2000. "The impact of under-reporting on the relationship between unemployment and property crime," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(10), pages 659-663.
    2. Gary S. Becker, 1974. "Crime and Punishment: An Economic Approach," NBER Chapters, in: Essays in the Economics of Crime and Punishment, pages 1-54, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Entorf, Horst & Spengler, Hannes, 2000. "Socioeconomic and demographic factors of crime in Germany: Evidence from panel data of the German states," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 75-106, March.
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    5. Goldberg, Itzhak & Nold, Frederick C, 1980. "Does Reporting Deter Burglars?-An Empirical Analysis of Risk and Return in Crime," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 62(3), pages 424-431, August.
    6. Brand, Sam & Price, Richard, 2000. "The economic and social costs of crime," MPRA Paper 74968, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. S. Pudney & D. Deadman & D. Pyle, 2000. "The relationship between crime, punishment and economic conditions: is reliable inference possible when crimes are under‐recorded?," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 163(1), pages 81-97.
    8. Derek Deadman, "undated". "Forecasting Residential Burglary," Discussion Papers in Public Sector Economics 00/6, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester.
    9. Samuel L. Myers, 1983. "Estimating the Economic Model of Crime: Employment Versus Punishment Effects," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 98(1), pages 157-166.
    10. Ann Dryden Witte, 1980. "Estimating the Economic Model of Crime With Individual Data," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 94(1), pages 57-84.
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