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The relationship between crime, punishment and economic conditions: is reliable inference possible when crimes are under‐recorded?

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  • S. Pudney
  • D. Deadman
  • D. Pyle

Abstract

We investigate the estimation of dynamic models of criminal activity, when there is significant under‐recording of crime. We give a theoretical analysis and use simulation techniques to investigate the resulting biases in conventional regression estimates. We find the biases to be of little practical significance. We develop and apply a new simulated maximum likelihood procedure that estimates simultaneously the measurement error and crime processes, using extraneous survey data. This also confirms that measurement error biases are small. Our estimation results for data from England and Wales imply a significant response of crime to both the economic and the enforcement environment.

Suggested Citation

  • S. Pudney & D. Deadman & D. Pyle, 2000. "The relationship between crime, punishment and economic conditions: is reliable inference possible when crimes are under‐recorded?," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 163(1), pages 81-97.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:jorssa:v:163:y:2000:i:1:p:81-97
    DOI: 10.1111/1467-985X.00158
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    Cited by:

    1. Mathijs Kros & Eva Jaspers & Frank Tubergen, 2023. "Longitudinal Changes in Interracial Hate Crimes in the USA, 1990–2014: Does Racial Composition Matter?," Journal of International Migration and Integration, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 547-566, June.
    2. George Saridakis, 2004. "Violent Crime in the United States of America: A Time-Series Analysis Between 1960–2000," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 203-221, September.
    3. Ziggy MacDonald, 2002. "Official Crime Statistics: Their Use and Interpretation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(477), pages 85-106, February.
    4. Foreman-Peck, James & Moore, Simon C., 2010. "Gratuitous violence and the rational offender model," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 160-172, June.
    5. George Saridakis & Sandra Sookram, 2014. "Violent Crime and Perceived Deterrence: An Empirical Approach using the Offending Crime and Justice Survey," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 19(1), pages 23-56, March.
    6. Manea, Roxana Elena & Piraino, Patrizio & Viarengo, Martina, 2023. "Crime, inequality and subsidized housing: Evidence from South Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    7. Derek Deadman, "undated". "Forecasting Trends in Recorded Crime," Discussion Papers in Public Sector Economics 01/1, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester.
    8. Justina A.V. Fischer, 2005. "The Impact of Direct Democracy on Crime: Is the Median Voter Boundedly Rational?," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2005 2005-14, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen.
    9. Saridakis George, 2013. "Shop Crime and Deterrence: Evidence on Shoplifting among Young People in the Youth Lifestyle Survey (YLS)," Review of Law & Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(2), pages 197-237, September.
    10. World Bank, 2003. "Jamaica - The Road to Sustained Growth : Country Economic Memorandum," World Bank Publications - Reports 14666, The World Bank Group.
    11. Nikolaos Dritsakis & Alexandros Gkanas, 2009. "The effect of socio-economic determinants on crime rates: An empirical research in the case of Greece with cointegration analysis," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), Democritus University of Thrace (DUTH), Kavala Campus, Greece, vol. 2(2), pages 51-64, December.
    12. Derek Deadman, "undated". "Forecasting Residential Burglary," Discussion Papers in Public Sector Economics 00/6, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester.
    13. Eide, Erling & Rubin, Paul H. & Shepherd, Joanna M., 2006. "Economics of Crime," Foundations and Trends(R) in Microeconomics, now publishers, vol. 2(3), pages 205-279, December.
    14. Deadman, Derek, 2003. "Forecasting residential burglary," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 567-578.
    15. World Bank, 2004. "The Road to Sustained Growth in Jamaica," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 15014.

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