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The Stochastic Behaviour of Market Variance Implied in the Prices of Index Options

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  • Franks, Julian R
  • Schwartz, Eduardo S

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to examine the time series properties of volatilities, and to consider various financial and real variables that may be correlated with innovations in expected volatility. The measure used in this study is the Black-Scholes volatility implied in weekly call option prices written on the spot price of the FTSE Index, a U.K. market equity index. First the authors determine if capital structure can explain the relation between changes in the volatility of equity and structure can explain the relation between changes in the volatility of equity and changes in the level of the index. Second, they analyze whether innovations in the volatilities of prices of real variables could also explain changes in equity volatility, including the volume of transactions in equities, oil prices, exchange rates, nominal and real interest rates, and inflation. Copyright 1991 by Royal Economic Society.

Suggested Citation

  • Franks, Julian R & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1991. "The Stochastic Behaviour of Market Variance Implied in the Prices of Index Options," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(409), pages 1460-1475, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecj:econjl:v:101:y:1991:i:409:p:1460-75
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Yu-Hua Zeng & Shou-Lei Wang & Yu-Fei Yang, 2014. "Calibration of the Volatility in Option Pricing Using the Total Variation Regularization," Journal of Applied Mathematics, Hindawi, vol. 2014, pages 1-9, March.
    2. David S. Bates, 1995. "Testing Option Pricing Models," NBER Working Papers 5129, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Jose Noguera, 2001. "Inflation and Capital Structure," Finance 0111001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Yanhui Chen & Kin Lai & Jiangze Du, 2014. "Modeling and forecasting Hang Seng index volatility with day-of-week effect, spillover effect based on ARIMA and HAR," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 4(2), pages 113-132, December.
    5. Georgios Chalamandaris & Andrianos Tsekrekos, 2013. "Explanatory Factors and Causality in the Dynamics of Volatility Surfaces Implied from OTC Asian–Pacific Currency Options," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 41(3), pages 327-358, March.
    6. David Heath & Eckhard Platen, 2004. "Understanding the Implied Volatility Surface for Options on a Diversified Index," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 11(1), pages 55-77, March.
    7. David S. Bates, 1997. "Post-'87 Crash Fears in S&P 500 Futures Options," NBER Working Papers 5894, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. David Heath & Eckhard Platen, 2003. "Pricing of index options under a minimal market model with log-normal scaling," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(6), pages 442-450.
    9. Carlos Alberto Piscarreta Pinto Ferreira, 2022. "Investor Base Dynamics and Sovereign Bond Yield Volatility," Working Papers REM 2022/0234, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    10. Wagner, Niklas & Szimayer, Alexander, 2004. "Local and spillover shocks in implied market volatility: evidence for the U.S. and Germany," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 237-251, September.
    11. Shou-Lei Wang & Yu-Fei Yang & Yu-Hua Zeng, 2014. "The Adjoint Method for the Inverse Problem of Option Pricing," Mathematical Problems in Engineering, Hindawi, vol. 2014, pages 1-7, March.
    12. Cifarelli, giulio, 2002. "The information content of implied volatilities of options on eurodeposit futures traded on the LIFFE: is there long memory?," MPRA Paper 28538, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Yao Elikem Ayekple & Charles Kofi Tetteh & Prince Kwaku Fefemwole, 2018. "Markov Chain Monte Carlo Method for Estimating Implied Volatility in Option Pricing," Journal of Mathematics Research, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 10(6), pages 108-116, December.
    14. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.
    15. Jacinto Marabel Romo, 2012. "Volatility Regimes For The Vix Index," Revista de Economia Aplicada, Universidad de Zaragoza, Departamento de Estructura Economica y Economia Publica, vol. 20(2), pages 111-134, Autumn.
    16. Carlos Alberto Piscarreta Pinto Ferreira, 2022. "Revisiting The Determinants Of Sovereign Bond Yield Volatility," Working Papers REM 2022/0241, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    17. Bates, David S., 2000. "Post-'87 crash fears in the S&P 500 futures option market," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1-2), pages 181-238.
    18. Tatiana Fedyk & Zvi Singer & Theodore Sougiannis, 2020. "The Accrual Anomaly: Accrual Originations, Accrual Reversals, and Resolution of Uncertainty," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(2), pages 885-916, June.

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