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Assessing the macroeconomic effects of climate change transition policies

Author

Listed:
  • Ferdinandusse, Marien
  • Kuik, Friderike
  • Priftis, Romanos

Abstract

Emission reduction measures have been adopted at both country and European Union (EU) levels. This box assesses the impact on euro area real GDP and inflation of green fiscal discretionary measures as included in the December 2023 Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections. Since these measures are unlikely to be sufficient to fully achieve the EU targets for emission reduction, energy efficiency and renewable energy production, model simulations are used to illustrate the medium-term impact of alternative transition policy scenarios. These simulations suggest modest downside risks to GDP and upside risks to inflation from transition policies to achieve EU targets, but the effects depend on the transition policy mix. JEL Classification: E3, E62, Q48

Suggested Citation

  • Ferdinandusse, Marien & Kuik, Friderike & Priftis, Romanos, 2024. "Assessing the macroeconomic effects of climate change transition policies," Economic Bulletin Boxes, European Central Bank, vol. 1.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbbox:2024:0001:4
    Note: 673741
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John Hassler & Per Krusell & Conny Olovsson, 2021. "Directed Technical Change as a Response to Natural Resource Scarcity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 129(11), pages 3039-3072.
    2. Coenen, Günter & Lozej, Matija & Priftis, Romanos, 2024. "Macroeconomic effects of carbon transition policies: An assessment based on the ECB’s New Area-Wide Model with a disaggregated energy sector," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    3. Brand, Claus & Coenen, Günter & Hutchinson, John & Saint Guilhem, Arthur, 2023. "The macroeconomic implications of the transition to a low-carbon economy," Economic Bulletin Articles, European Central Bank, vol. 5.
    4. Chris Papageorgiou & Marianne Saam & Patrick Schulte, 2017. "Substitution between Clean and Dirty Energy Inputs: A Macroeconomic Perspective," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 99(2), pages 281-290, May.
    5. Ferdinandusse, Marien & Kuik, Friderike & Lis, Eliza & Sun, Yiqiao, 2023. "Climate-related policies in the Eurosystem/ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area and the macroeconomic impact of green fiscal measures," Economic Bulletin Boxes, European Central Bank, vol. 1.
    6. Webster, Mort & Paltsev, Sergey & Reilly, John, 2008. "Autonomous efficiency improvement or income elasticity of energy demand: Does it matter?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 2785-2798, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ciccarelli, Matteo & Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Priftis, Romanos & Angelini, Elena & Bańbura, Marta & Bokan, Nikola & Fagan, Gabriel & Gumiel, José Emilio & Kornprobst, Antoine & Lalik, Magdalena & Mo, 2024. "ECB macroeconometric models for forecasting and policy analysis," Occasional Paper Series 344, European Central Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    DSGE models; fiscal measures; growth; Inflation; transition policies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy

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