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Transformative Investitionen als Treiber eines neuen Wirtschaftsbooms?

Author

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  • Tom Krebs

    (University of Mannheim)

Abstract

Die vorliegende Studie untersucht die Wachstumseffekte oeffentlicher Investitionen in die sozial-oekologische Transformation von Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft. Die Analyse zeigt, dass eine drastische Ausweitung der oeffentlichen Klima- und Sozialinvestitionen in Deutschland einen Wirtschaftsboom ausloesen und gleichzeitig die Transformation zur Klimaneutralitaet unterstuetzen kann. In einem Positiv-Szenario ist mit jaehrlichen Wachstumsraten von bis zu drei Prozent ueber einen laengeren Zeitraum zu rechnen. In diesem Sinne ist ein gruenes Wirtschaftswunder moeglich. Dieses Positiv-Szenario wird jedoch nur Wirklichkeit werden, wenn die oeffentliche Hand die Klima- und Sozialinvestitionen drastisch erhoeht – dauerhaft um rund zwei Prozent des BIPs. Ebenso moeglich ist ein Negativ-Szenario, in dem die deutsche Wirtschaft ueber mehrere Jahre kaum waechst. Ein solches Stagnationsszenario wird mit hoher Wahrscheinlichkeit eintreten, wenn die Bundesregierung an ihrer aktuellen Finanzpolitik festhaelt und so eine wachstumstreibende Investitionsoffensive verhindert.

Suggested Citation

  • Tom Krebs, 2024. "Transformative Investitionen als Treiber eines neuen Wirtschaftsbooms?," Working Papers 1, Forum New Economy.
    • Handle: RePEc:agz:wpaper:2401
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    File URL: https://newforum.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/FNE-WP01-2024-1.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Valerie Cerra & Sweta Chaman Saxena, 2008. "Growth Dynamics: The Myth of Economic Recovery," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 439-457, March.
    2. Krebs, Tom & Scheffel, Martin, 2016. "Quantifizierung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen und fiskalischen Effekte ausgewählter Infrastruktur- und Bildungsinvestitionen in Deutschland," Working Papers 16-13, University of Mannheim, Department of Economics.
    3. John Hassler & Per Krusell & Conny Olovsson, 2021. "Directed Technical Change as a Response to Natural Resource Scarcity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 129(11), pages 3039-3072.
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    5. Brand, Claus & Coenen, Günter & Hutchinson, John & Saint Guilhem, Arthur, 2023. "The macroeconomic implications of the transition to a low-carbon economy," Economic Bulletin Articles, European Central Bank, vol. 5.
    6. Steven Fazzari & Alejandro Gonzalez, 2023. "How large are hysteresis effects? Estimates from a Keynesian growth model," FMM Working Paper 89-2023, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oeffentliche Investitionen; Transformation; Wirtschaftsboom;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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