IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ebl/ecbull/eb-24-00192.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Does fear of floating shape monetary policy and does it matter?

Author

Listed:
  • Asif Ahmad

    (University of York)

  • Richard Mcmanus

    (Canterbury Christ Church University)

  • Gulcin Ozkan

    (King's College London)

Abstract

Despite overwhelming evidence on the enduring preference for limiting exchange rate variability, our understanding of how such fear of floating (FoF) impacts policy and macroeconomic outcomes is far from complete. Using data from 166 countries over 1950-2019, we show that (i) FoF has been prevalent throughout our sample period; (ii) FoF is a major driver of monetary procyclicality; and (iii) both FoF and procyclical monetary policy result in adverse outcomes in the form of greater volatility in output and inflation and lower output growth. As such, our findings point to the importance of establishing frameworks to build up resilience against exchange rate variability as a key step in establishing countercyclicality and boosting short-term stability and long-term growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Asif Ahmad & Richard Mcmanus & Gulcin Ozkan, 2024. "Does fear of floating shape monetary policy and does it matter?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 44(3), pages 1055-1095.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-24-00192
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.accessecon.com/Pubs/EB/2024/Volume44/EB-24-V44-I3-P83.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Muhammad Ali Choudhary & Muhammad Nadim Hanif & Sajawal Khan & Muhammad Rehman, 2012. "Procyclical Monetary Policy and Governance," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 8, pages 33-43.
    2. Lynge Nielsen, 2011. "Classifications of Countries Basedon their Level of Development: How it is Done and How it Could Be Done," IMF Working Papers 2011/031, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Yossi Yakhin, 2008. "Financial Integration And Cyclicality Of Monetary Policy In Small Open Economies," Working Papers 0811, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Department of Economics.
    4. Cukierman, Alex & Webb, Steven B & Neyapti, Bilin, 1992. "Measuring the Independence of Central Banks and Its Effect on Policy Outcomes," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 6(3), pages 353-398, September.
    5. Ilzetzki, Ethan & Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2021. "Rethinking Exchange Rate Regimes," CEPR Discussion Papers 16722, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Kristin J. Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2223-2261, October.
    7. Asif Ahmad & Richard McManus & F. Gulcin Ozkan, 2021. "Fiscal space and the procyclicality of fiscal policy: The case for making hay while the sun shines," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 59(4), pages 1687-1701, October.
    8. Carlos A. Vegh & Guillermo Vuletin, 2013. "Overcoming the Fear of Free Falling: Monetary Policy Graduation in Emerging Markets," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Douglas D Evanoff & Cornelia Holthausen & George G Kaufman & Manfred Kremer (ed.), The Role of Central Banks in Financial Stability How Has It Changed?, chapter 6, pages 105-129, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    9. Javier Bianchi & Louphou Coulibaly, 2023. "A Theory of Fear of Floating," NBER Working Papers 30897, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Itchoko Motande Mondjeli Mwa Ndjokou and Christophe Martial Mbassi, 2018. "Does Financial Development Explain the Cyclicality of Monetary Policy in Sub-saharan Africa?," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 43(4), pages 71-84, December.
    2. Graciela Laura Kaminsky, 2016. "Globalization in the Periphery: Monetary Policy: What is Gained, What is Lost," Working Papers 2016-26, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
    3. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2010. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 25, pages 1439-1520, Elsevier.
    4. Akosah, Nana Kwame & Alagidede, Imhotep Paul & Schaling, Eric, 2020. "Testing for asymmetry in monetary policy rule for small-open developing economies: Multiscale Bayesian quantile evidence from Ghana," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 22(C).
    5. Herman Bennett & Norman Loayza, 2002. "Policy Biases when the Monetary and Fiscal Authorities Have Different Objectives," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Norman Loayza & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series (ed.),Monetary Policy: Rules and Transmission Mechanisms, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 11, pages 299-330, Central Bank of Chile.
    6. Radosław Kurach, 2013. "Does Beta Explain Global Equity Market Volatility – Some Empirical Evidence," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 7(2), June.
    7. Flavin, Thomas J. & Panopoulou, Ekaterini & Unalmis, Deren, 2008. "On the stability of domestic financial market linkages in the presence of time-varying volatility," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 280-301, December.
    8. Claeys, Peter & Vašíček, Bořek, 2014. "Measuring bilateral spillover and testing contagion on sovereign bond markets in Europe," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 151-165.
    9. Małgorzata Doman & Ryszard Doman, 2013. "Dynamic linkages between stock markets: the effects of crises and globalization," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 12(2), pages 87-112, August.
    10. Hartwell, Christopher A., 2014. "The impact of institutional volatility on financial volatility in transition economies : a GARCH family approach," BOFIT Discussion Papers 6/2014, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    11. Ftiti, Zied & Aguir, Abdelkader & Smida, Mounir, 2017. "Time-inconsistency and expansionary business cycle theories: What does matter for the central bank independence–inflation relationship?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 215-227.
    12. Schaeck, K. & Silva Buston, C.F. & Wagner, W.B., 2013. "The Two Faces of Interbank Correlation," Discussion Paper 2013-077, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    13. Muñoz, Mª Pilar & Márquez, María Dolores & Sánchez, Josep A., 2011. "Contagion between United States and european markets during the recent crises," MPRA Paper 35993, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Jinjarak, Yothin, 2014. "Equity prices and financial globalization," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 49-57.
    15. Michaud, Amanda & Rothert, Jacek, 2018. "Redistributive fiscal policies and business cycles in emerging economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 123-133.
    16. Chiang, Thomas C., 2019. "Empirical analysis of intertemporal relations between downside risks and expected returns—Evidence from Asian markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 264-278.
    17. Abu S. Amin & Lucjan T. Orlowski, 2014. "Returns, Volatilities, and Correlations Across Mature, Regional, and Frontier Markets: Evidence from South Asia," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(3), pages 5-27, May.
    18. Emna Trabelsi, 2016. "Transparency on inflation of OECD countries? An Application of LSDVC Estimator on a dynamic Panel Model," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(2), pages 1095-1126.
    19. Bilin Neyapti, 2018. "Income distribution and economic crises," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(3), pages 273-296, December.
    20. Weber, Enzo, 2009. "Financial Contagion, Vulnerability and Information Flow: Empirical Identification," University of Regensburg Working Papers in Business, Economics and Management Information Systems 431, University of Regensburg, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    monetary policy; exchange rates; inflation; growth; procyclicality; fear of floating.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-24-00192. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: John P. Conley (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.