IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ebl/ecbull/eb-24-00015.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The impact of lockdowns on macroeconomic performance: An application of epidemiology dynamics

Author

Listed:
  • Chia-Hui Lu

    (National Taipei University, Department of Economics)

Abstract

This paper introduces susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered epidemiology dynamics with vaccines into a Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans model, which investigates the impact of lockdowns and parameters related to infectious disease on macroeconomic performance. We find that changes in parameters related to infectious diseases other than lockdown restrictions, as long as they are adverse to people's health, will reduce the number of laborers who can work and have a negative impact on output, consumption, and welfare. Although lockdown restrictions can reduce public infections, they reduce economic activities. If the government does not have any economic revitalization policies, it will take a long time to recover from the impact of lockdown restrictions that reduce output and household welfare.

Suggested Citation

  • Chia-Hui Lu, 2024. "The impact of lockdowns on macroeconomic performance: An application of epidemiology dynamics," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 44(2), pages 707-719.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-24-00015
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.accessecon.com/Pubs/EB/2024/Volume44/EB-24-V44-I2-P54.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. André, Keven R.A. & Arbex, Marcelo & Corrêa, Márcio V., 2023. "The economic implications of a network SIR-Macro model of epidemics," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    2. Caulkins, Jonathan P. & Grass, Dieter & Feichtinger, Gustav & Hartl, Richard F. & Kort, Peter M. & Prskawetz, Alexia & Seidl, Andrea & Wrzaczek, Stefan, 2021. "The optimal lockdown intensity for COVID-19," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    3. Enrique G. Mendoza & Eugenio Rojas & Linda L. Tesar & Jing Zhang, 2023. "A Macroeconomic Model of Healthcare Saturation, Inequality and the Output–Pandemia Trade-off," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(1), pages 243-299, March.
    4. Farboodi, Maryam & Jarosch, Gregor & Shimer, Robert, 2021. "Internal and external effects of social distancing in a pandemic," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    5. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-1370, November.
    6. Andrew Atkeson, 2020. "What Will Be the Economic Impact of COVID-19 in the US? Rough Estimates of Disease Scenarios," NBER Working Papers 26867, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1990. "Supply-Side Economics: An Analytical Review," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 42(2), pages 293-316, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Eichenbaum, Martin S. & Rebelo, Sergio & Trabandt, Mathias, 2022. "The macroeconomics of testing and quarantining," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    2. Emanuele Colombo Azimonti & Luca Portoghese & Patrizio Tirelli, 2022. "Covid-19 supply-side fiscal policies to escape the health-vs-economy dilemma," DEM Working Papers Series 208, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management.
    3. Huberts, Nick F.D. & Thijssen, Jacco J.J., 2023. "Optimal timing of non-pharmaceutical interventions during an epidemic," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 305(3), pages 1366-1389.
    4. Ichino, Andrea & Favero, Carlo A. & Rustichini, Aldo, 2020. "Restarting the economy while saving lives under Covid-19," CEPR Discussion Papers 14664, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Houštecká, Anna & Koh, Dongya & Santaeulàlia-Llopis, Raül, 2021. "Contagion at work: Occupations, industries and human contact," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    6. Xiao Chen & Hanwei Huang & Jiandong Ju & Ruoyan Sun & Jialiang Zhang, 2022. "Endogenous cross-region human mobility and pandemics," CEP Discussion Papers dp1860, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    7. Gopal K. Basak & Chandramauli Chakraborty & Pranab Kumar Das, 2021. "Optimal Lockdown Strategy in a Pandemic: An Exploratory Analysis for Covid-19," Papers 2109.02512, arXiv.org.
    8. Dirk Niepelt & Mart n Gonzalez-Eiras, 2020. "Optimally Controlling an Epidemic," Diskussionsschriften dp2019, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.
    9. Brotherhood, Luiz & Cavalcanti, Tiago & Da Mata, Daniel & Santos, Cezar, 2022. "Slums and pandemics," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    10. Jesper Akesson & Sam Ashworth-Hayes & Robert Hahn & Robert Metcalfe & Itzhak Rasooly, 2022. "Fatalism, beliefs, and behaviors during the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 64(2), pages 147-190, April.
    11. Christian Moser & Pierre Yared, 2022. "Pandemic Lockdown: The Role of Government Commitment," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 46, pages 27-50, October.
    12. David Berger & Kyle Herkenhoff & Chengdai Huang & Simon Mongey, 2022. "Testing and Reopening in an SEIR Model," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 43, pages 1-21, January.
    13. Julian Thimme, 2017. "Intertemporal Substitution In Consumption: A Literature Review," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(1), pages 226-257, February.
    14. Mathias Trabandt & Harald Uhlig, 2006. "How Far Are We From The Slippery Slope? The Laffer Curve Revisited," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2006-023, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    15. Hinterlang, Natascha & Moyen, Stephane & Röhe, Oke & Stähler, Nikolai, 2023. "Gauging the effects of the German COVID-19 fiscal stimulus package," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    16. Cecilia García‐Peñalosa & Stephen J. Turnovsky, 2011. "Taxation and Income Distribution Dynamics in a Neoclassical Growth Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(8), pages 1543-1577, December.
    17. Gerhard Glomm & Juergen Jung, 2013. "The Timing of Redistribution," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 80(1), pages 50-80, July.
    18. Eirik S. Amundsen, 2022. "Searching for a "Golden Rule" of Economic Regulation of an Infectious Disease," CESifo Working Paper Series 9607, CESifo.
    19. Marina Azzimonti-Renzo & Alessandra Fogli & Fabrizio Perri & Mark Ponder, 2020. "Pandemic Control in ECON-EPI Networks," Staff Report 609, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    20. Facundo Piguillem & Liyan Shi, 2022. "Optimal Covid-19 Quarantine and Testing Policies," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 132(647), pages 2534-2562.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Epidemiology; infectious diseases; lockdown; welfare;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-24-00015. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: John P. Conley (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.