IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ebl/ecbull/eb-17-00107.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Optimal Mix of the Extended Nelson Siegel Model for Turkish Sovereign Yield Curve

Author

Listed:
  • Oguzhan Cepni

    (Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey)

  • Doruk Kucuksarac

    (Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey)

Abstract

The yield curve is one of the most fundamental tools used by central banks. One of the most popular methods to estimate yield curve by the central banks is Extended Nelson Siegel model. However, there are some technical differences in yield curve estimation. These differences are mainly related to the choice of objective function and the maturity spectrum of bonds in the data set. In this respect, this note aims to find out the optimal combination of the Turkish Treasury bond market yield curve based on the Extended Nelson Siegel model. Main findings indicate that the exclusion of long-term bonds results in a better in-sample fit for the short-term bonds. On the other hand, the inclusion of repo transactions leads to a worsening in in-sample fit across all maturity segments regardless of the choice of the objective function. Regarding the choice of objective function, weighted price minimization provides better in sample-fit of the yield curve for all different maturity segments when the repo transactions are excluded.

Suggested Citation

  • Oguzhan Cepni & Doruk Kucuksarac, 2017. "Optimal Mix of the Extended Nelson Siegel Model for Turkish Sovereign Yield Curve," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(2), pages 1133-1142.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-17-00107
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.accessecon.com/Pubs/EB/2017/Volume37/EB-17-V37-I2-P100.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nicola Anderson & John Sleath, 2001. "New estimates of the UK real and nominal yield curves," Bank of England working papers 126, Bank of England.
    2. Diebold, Francis X. & Li, Canlin, 2006. "Forecasting the term structure of government bond yields," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 130(2), pages 337-364, February.
    3. Vasicek, Oldrich A & Fong, H Gifford, 1982. "Term Structure Modeling Using Exponential Splines," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 37(2), pages 339-348, May.
    4. Emma Berenguer & Ricardo Gimeno & Juan M. Nave, 2013. "Term structure estimation, liquidity-induced heteroskedasticity and the price of liquidity risk," Working Papers 1308, Banco de España.
    5. Özge AKINCI & Burcu GÜRCİHAN & Refet GÜRKAYNAK & Özgür ÖZEL, 2007. "Devlet iç borçlanma senetleri için getiri eğrisi tahmini," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, vol. 22(252), pages 5-25.
    6. Nelson, Charles R & Siegel, Andrew F, 1987. "Parsimonious Modeling of Yield Curves," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(4), pages 473-489, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Karahan, Cenk C. & Soykök, Emre, 2023. "On illiquidity of an emerging sovereign bond market," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 47(2).
    2. Doruk Kucuksarac & Abdullah Kazdal & Ibrahim Ethem Guney, 2018. "Estimation of Currency Swap Yield Curve," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1803, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Varga, Gyorgy, 2009. "Teste de Modelos Estatísticos para a Estrutura a Termo no Brasil," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 63(4), December.
    2. Faria, Adriano & Almeida, Caio, 2018. "A hybrid spline-based parametric model for the yield curve," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 72-94.
    3. Donati, Paola & Donati, Francesco, 2008. "Modelling and Forecasting the Yield Curve under Model uncertainty," Working Paper Series 917, European Central Bank.
    4. Bianchi, Francesco & Mumtaz, Haroon & Surico, Paolo, 2009. "Dynamics of the term structure of UK interest rates," Bank of England working papers 363, Bank of England.
    5. Tong, Xiaojun & He, Zhuoqiong Chong & Sun, Dongchu, 2018. "Estimating Chinese Treasury yield curves with Bayesian smoothing splines," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 8(C), pages 94-124.
    6. Rafael Barros de Rezende, 2011. "Giving Flexibility to the Nelson-Siegel Class of Term Structure Models," Brazilian Review of Finance, Brazilian Society of Finance, vol. 9(1), pages 27-49.
    7. Jelena Zubkova, 2003. "Interest Rate Term Structure in Latvia in the Monetary Policy Context," Working Papers 2003/03, Latvijas Banka.
    8. Nagy, Krisztina, 2020. "Term structure estimation with missing data: Application for emerging markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 347-360.
    9. Nymand-Andersen, Per, 2018. "Yield curve modelling and a conceptual framework for estimating yield curves: evidence from the European Central Bank’s yield curves," Statistics Paper Series 27, European Central Bank.
    10. Shaw, Frances & Murphy, Finbarr & O’Brien, Fergal, 2014. "The forecasting efficiency of the dynamic Nelson Siegel model on credit default swaps," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 348-368.
    11. James M. Steeley, 2008. "Testing Term Structure Estimation Methods: Evidence from the UK STRIPS Market," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(7), pages 1489-1512, October.
    12. Antonio Diaz & Francisco Jareno & Eliseo Navarro, 2010. "Term structure of volatilities and yield curve estimation methodology," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(4), pages 573-586.
    13. Annaert, Jan & Claes, Anouk G.P. & De Ceuster, Marc J.K. & Zhang, Hairui, 2013. "Estimating the spot rate curve using the Nelson–Siegel model," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 482-496.
    14. Wali Ullah & Yasumasa Matsuda, 2012. "Term Structure Modeling and Forecasting of Government Bond Yields : Does Macroeconomic Factors Imply Better Out-of-Sample Forecasts?," TERG Discussion Papers 304, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Tohoku University.
    15. Vadim Kaushanskiy & Victor Lapshin, 2016. "A nonparametric method for term structure fitting with automatic smoothing," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(58), pages 5654-5666, December.
    16. Almeida, Caio & Lund, Bruno, 2014. "Immunization of Fixed-Income Portfolios Using an Exponential Parametric Model," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 34(2), November.
    17. Laurini, Márcio Poletti & Ohashi, Alberto, 2015. "A noisy principal component analysis for forward rate curves," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 246(1), pages 140-153.
    18. Emma Berenguer-Carceles & Ricardo Gimeno & Juan M. Nave, 2012. "Estimation of the Term Structure of Interest Rates: Methodology and Applications," Working Papers 12.06, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Financial Economics and Accounting (former Department of Business Administration).
    19. Díaz, Antonio & Jareño, Francisco & Navarro, Eliseo, 2018. "Zero-coupon interest rates: Evaluating three alternative datasets," Economics Discussion Papers 2018-67, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    20. Paul Beaumont & Yaniv Jerassy-Etzion, 2011. "Computing maximally smooth forward rate curves for coupon bonds: An iterative piecewise quartic polynomial interpolation method," Working Papers wp2011_08_03, Department of Economics, Florida State University.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Yield curve; Extended Nelson Siegel; Optimization.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-17-00107. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: John P. Conley (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.