The output gap and inflation in U.S. data: an empirical note
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
Download full text from publisher
References listed on IDEAS
- Jay Choi, Jongmoo & Hauser, Shmuel & Kopecky, Kenneth J., 1999. "Does the stock market predict real activity? Time series evidence from the G-7 countries," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(12), pages 1771-1792, December.
- Ivo Welch & Amit Goyal, 2008.
"A Comprehensive Look at The Empirical Performance of Equity Premium Prediction,"
The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1455-1508, July.
- Amit Goyal & Ivo Welch, 2004. "A Comprehensive Look at the Empirical Performance of Equity Premium Prediction," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2412, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Jan 2006.
- Amit Goyal & Ivo Welch & Athanasse Zafirov, 2021. "A Comprehensive Look at the Empirical Performance of Equity Premium Prediction II," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 21-85, Swiss Finance Institute.
- Amit Goval & Ivo Welch, 2004. "A Comprehensive Look at the Empirical Performance of Equity Premium Prediction," NBER Working Papers 10483, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Orphanides, Athanasios & van Norden, Simon, 2005.
"The Reliability of Inflation Forecasts Based on Output Gap Estimates in Real Time,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(3), pages 583-601, June.
- Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 2003. "The Reliability of Inflation Forecasts Based on Output Gap Estimates in Real Time," CIRANO Working Papers 2003s-01, CIRANO.
- Orphanides, Athanasios & van Norden, Simon, 2005. "The Reliability of Inflation Forecasts Based on Output Gap Estimates in Real Time," CEPR Discussion Papers 4830, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 2004. "The reliability of inflation forecasts based on output gap estimates in real time," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-68, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Ilan Cooper, 2009. "Time-Varying Risk Premiums and the Output Gap," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(7), pages 2601-2633, July.
- Biswas, Anindya, 2014. "The output gap and expected security returns," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 131-140.
- Ghysels, Eric & Santa-Clara, Pedro & Valkanov, Rossen, 2006.
"Predicting volatility: getting the most out of return data sampled at different frequencies,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 59-95.
- Eric Ghysels & Pedro Santa-Clara & Rossen Valkanov, 2004. "Predicting Volatility: Getting the Most out of Return Data Sampled at Different Frequencies," NBER Working Papers 10914, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Eric Ghysels & Pedro Santa-Clara & Rossen Valkanov, 2004. "Predicting Volatility: Getting the Most out of Return Data Sampled at Different Frequencies," CIRANO Working Papers 2004s-19, CIRANO.
- Ghysels, Eric & Wright, Jonathan H., 2009.
"Forecasting Professional Forecasters,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(4), pages 504-516.
- Eric Ghysels & Jonathan H. Wright, 2006. "Forecasting professional forecasters," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2006-10, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Anderson, Evan W. & Ghysels, Eric & Juergens, Jennifer L., 2009. "The impact of risk and uncertainty on expected returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 233-263, November.
- Eric Ghysels & Arthur Sinko & Rossen Valkanov, 2007. "MIDAS Regressions: Further Results and New Directions," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(1), pages 53-90.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Biswas, Anindya, 2014. "The output gap and expected security returns," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 131-140.
- Anindya Biswas, 2014. "The output gap and expected security returns," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 23(3), pages 131-140, September.
- Galvão, Ana Beatriz, 2013.
"Changes in predictive ability with mixed frequency data,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 395-410.
- Ana Beatriz Galvão, 2007. "Changes in Predictive Ability with Mixed Frequency Data," Working Papers 595, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
- Clements, Michael P. & Galvao, Ana Beatriz, 2006.
"Macroeconomic Forecasting with Mixed Frequency Data: Forecasting US output growth and inflation,"
Economic Research Papers
269743, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
- Clements, Michael P & Galvão, Ana Beatriz, 2006. "Macroeconomic Forecasting with Mixed Frequency Data : Forecasting US output growth and inflation," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 773, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- Santiago Etchegaray Alvarez, 2022. "Proyecciones macroeconómicas con datos en frecuencias mixtas. Modelos ADL-MIDAS, U-MIDAS y TF-MIDAS con aplicaciones para Uruguay," Documentos de trabajo 2022004, Banco Central del Uruguay.
- Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George, 2018. "Forecasting oil prices: High-frequency financial data are indeed useful," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 388-402.
- Claudia Foroni & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2013.
"A survey of econometric methods for mixed-frequency data,"
Working Paper
2013/06, Norges Bank.
- Claudia Foroni & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2013. "A survey of econometric methods for mixed-frequency data," Economics Working Papers ECO2013/02, European University Institute.
- Jiqian Wang & Rangan Gupta & Oğuzhan Çepni & Feng Ma, 2023.
"Forecasting international REITs volatility: the role of oil-price uncertainty,"
The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(14), pages 1579-1597, September.
- Jiqian Wang & Rangan Gupta & Oguzhan Cepni & Feng Ma, 2021. "Forecasting International REITs Volatility: The Role of Oil-Price Uncertainty," Working Papers 202173, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Rong Fu & Luze Xie & Tao Liu & Juan Huang & Binbin Zheng, 2022. "Chinese Economic Growth Projections Based on Mixed Data of Carbon Emissions under the COVID-19 Pandemic," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(24), pages 1-16, December.
- Kuzin, Vladimir & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Schumacher, Christian, 2011.
"MIDAS vs. mixed-frequency VAR: Nowcasting GDP in the euro area,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 529-542.
- Kuzin, Vladimir & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Schumacher, Christian, 2011. "MIDAS vs. mixed-frequency VAR: Nowcasting GDP in the euro area," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 529-542, April.
- Schumacher, Christian & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Kuzin, Vladimir, 2009. "MIDAS vs. mixed-frequency VAR: Nowcasting GDP in the Euro Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 7445, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Vladimir Kuzin & Massimiliano Marcellino & Christian Schumacher, 2009. "MIDAS vs. mixed-frequency VAR: Nowcasting GDP in the Euro Area," Economics Working Papers ECO2009/32, European University Institute.
- Özer Karagedikli & Murat Özbilgin, 2019. "Mixed in New Zealand: Nowcasting Labour Markets with MIDAS," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Notes series AN2019/04, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
- Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George, 2017. "Forecasting oil prices," MPRA Paper 77531, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Anderson, Evan W. & Ghysels, Eric & Juergens, Jennifer L., 2009. "The impact of risk and uncertainty on expected returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 233-263, November.
- Michelle T. Armesto & Kristie M. Engemann & Michael T. Owyang, 2010. "Forecasting with mixed frequencies," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 92(Nov), pages 521-536.
- Clements, Michael P. & Galvão, Ana Beatriz, 2017. "Model and survey estimates of the term structure of US macroeconomic uncertainty," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 591-604.
- Selma Toker & Nimet Özbay & Kristofer Månsson, 2022. "Mixed data sampling regression: Parameter selection of smoothed least squares estimator," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(4), pages 718-751, July.
- Lixiong Yang, 2022. "Threshold mixed data sampling (TMIDAS) regression models with an application to GDP forecast errors," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(2), pages 533-551, February.
- Chava, Sudheer & Gallmeyer, Michael & Park, Heungju, 2015. "Credit conditions and stock return predictability," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 117-132.
- Valadkhani, Abbas & Smyth, Russell, 2017. "How do daily changes in oil prices affect US monthly industrial output?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 83-90.
- Michael P. Clements & Ana Beatriz Galvão, 2014. "Measuring Macroeconomic Uncertainty: US Inflation and Output Growth," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2014-04, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
More about this item
Keywords
Inflation predictability; Output gap; Real-time data; Beta-weighting scheme;All these keywords.
JEL classification:
- E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
- E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-14-00475. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: John P. Conley (email available below). General contact details of provider: .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.