IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ebl/ecbull/eb-12-00672.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Cyclical Properties of Migrant's Remittances to Pakistan: What the data tell us

Author

Listed:
  • Junaid Ahmed

    (Development Economics Research Group)

Abstract

Migrant's remittances are a growing source of foreign funds for several developing countries including Pakistan. Despite a burgeoning body of literature and growing interest in migrants' remittances and its impact on recipient's economies, relatively little work exists on the business cycle characteristics of remittances to Pakistan. This study analyzes whether remittance act pro- or counter-cyclically in the face of external and internal economic shocks by employing annual data from 1973-2010 for Pakistan. The results show that migrant's remittances are counter-cyclical with respect to home output and households consumption. Remittances are found to be acyclical with the output of Pakistan's major remittances sources such as the United States and United Kingdom. Remittances from Saudi Arabia, however, show mixed results. The overall impact of remittance inflows to Pakistan appears to be a stabilizing one.

Suggested Citation

  • Junaid Ahmed, 2012. "Cyclical Properties of Migrant's Remittances to Pakistan: What the data tell us," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(4), pages 3266-3278.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-12-00672
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.accessecon.com/Pubs/EB/2012/Volume32/EB-12-V32-I4-P314.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rizwana Siddiqui & A. R. Kemal, 2006. "Remittances, Trade Liberalisation, and Poverty in Pakistan: The Role of Excluded Variables in Poverty Change Analysis," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 45(3), pages 383-415.
    2. Roberto Coronado, 2009. "Business cycles and remittances: can the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition provide new evidence?," Globalization Institute Working Papers 40, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    3. Farid Makhlouf & Mazhar Mughal, 2013. "Remittances, Dutch Disease, And Competitiveness: A Bayesian Analysis," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 38(2), pages 67-97, June.
    4. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
    5. Mazhar Y. Mughal, 2013. "Remittances As Development Strategy: Stepping Stones Or Slippery Slope?," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 583-595, May.
    6. Amar Iqbal Anwar & Mazhar Mughal, 2012. "Remittances, inequality and poverty in Pakistan: macro and microeconomic Evidence [Centre d'Analyse Théorique et de Traitement des données économiques REMITTANCES, INEQUALITY AND POVERTY IN PAKISTA," Working papers of CATT hal-01885153, HAL.
    7. Giuliano, Paola & Ruiz-Arranz, Marta, 2009. "Remittances, financial development, and growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 144-152, September.
    8. Farid Makhlouf & Mazhar Mughal, 2013. "Remittances, Dutch Disease, And Competitiveness: A Bayesian Analysis," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 38(2), pages 67-97, June.
    9. Ralph Chami & Connel Fullenkamp & Samir Jahjah, 2005. "Are Immigrant Remittance Flows a Source of Capital for Development?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 52(1), pages 55-81, April.
    10. Åule Akkoyunlu & Konstantin A. Kholodilin, 2008. "A Link Between Workers' Remittances and Business Cycles in Germany and Turkey," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(5), pages 23-40, September.
    11. Marta Ruiz-Arranz & Mr. Erik Lueth, 2007. "Are Workers' Remittances a Hedge Against Macroeconomic Shocks? the Case of Sri Lanka," IMF Working Papers 2007/022, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Mr. Serdar Sayan, 2006. "Business Cycles and Workers' Remittances: How Do Migrant Workers Respond to Cyclical Movements of GDP At Home?," IMF Working Papers 2006/052, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Vargas-Silva, Carlos, 2008. "Are remittances manna from heaven? A look at the business cycle properties of remittances," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 290-303, December.
    14. Sayan, Serdar & Tekin-Koru, Ayca, 2007. "Business Cycles and Remittances: A Comparison of the Cases of Turkish Workers in Germany and Mexican Workers in the US," MPRA Paper 6030, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Sayan, Serdar & Tekin-Koru, Ayca, 2007. "Remittances, Business Cycles and Poverty: The Recent Turkish Experience," MPRA Paper 6029, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Morten O. Ravn & Harald Uhlig, 2002. "On adjusting the Hodrick-Prescott filter for the frequency of observations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 371-375.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mazhar Y. Mughal & Junaid Ahmed, 2014. "Remittances and Business Cycles: Comparison of South Asian Countries," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(4), pages 513-541, December.
    2. Ghorpade, Yashodhan, 2017. "Extending a Lifeline or Cutting Losses? The Effects of Conflict on Household Receipts of Remittances in Pakistan," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 230-252.
    3. Omneia HELMY & Chahir ZAKI & Aliaa ABDALLAH, 2020. "Do Workers’ Remittances Promote Consumption Stability In Egypt?," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 20(2), pages 127-144.
    4. Amar Iqbal Anwar & Mazhar Mughal, 2013. "Foreign Financial Flows and Terrorism In Developing Countries," Working papers of CATT hal-01885149, HAL.
    5. Amar Iqbal Anwar & Mazhar Mughal, 2013. "Foreign Financial Flows and Terrorism In Developing Countries," Working Papers hal-01885149, HAL.
    6. Junaid Ahmed & Inmaculada Martinez-Zarzoso, 2016. "Blessing or Curse," Journal of South Asian Development, , vol. 11(1), pages 38-66, April.
    7. Ahmed, Junaid & Martinez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada, 2013. "Blessing or curse: The stabilizing role of remittances, foreign aid and FDI to Pakistan," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 153, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    8. Mazhar Y. Mughal & Junaid Ahmed, 2014. "Remittances and Business Cycles: Comparison of South Asian Countries," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(4), pages 513-541, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mazhar Y. Mughal & Junaid Ahmed, 2014. "Remittances and Business Cycles: Comparison of South Asian Countries," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(4), pages 513-541, December.
    2. Junaid Ahmed & Inmaculada Martinez-Zarzoso, 2016. "Blessing or Curse," Journal of South Asian Development, , vol. 11(1), pages 38-66, April.
    3. Leonida Correia & Patrícia Martins, 2019. "Has the sovereign debt crisis changed the cyclicality of Portuguese remittances?," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(3), pages 453-472, May.
    4. Ahmed, Junaid & Martinez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada, 2013. "Blessing or curse: The stabilizing role of remittances, foreign aid and FDI to Pakistan," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 153, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    5. Giulia Bettin & Andrea F. Presbitero & Nikola L. Spatafora, 2017. "Remittances and Vulnerability in Developing Countries," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 31(1), pages 1-23.
    6. Balli, Faruk & Rana, Faisal, 2015. "Determinants of risk sharing through remittances," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 107-116.
    7. Gloria Clarissa O. Dzeha, 2016. "The decipher, theory or empirics: a review of remittance studies," African Journal of Accounting, Auditing and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 5(2), pages 113-134.
    8. Farid Makhlouf, 2014. "Propriétés cycliques des transferts de fonds des migrants marocains," Working Papers hal-01885146, HAL.
    9. Batu, Michael, 2017. "International worker remittances and economic growth in a Real Business Cycle framework," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 81-91.
    10. Faruk Balli & Faisal Rana, 2014. "Determinants of risk sharing through remittances: cross-country evidence," CAMA Working Papers 2014-12, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    11. Farid Makhlouf, 2014. "Propriétés cycliques des transferts de fonds des migrants marocains," Working Papers hal-01885146, HAL.
    12. Eric Rougier & Nicolas Yol, 2018. "The volatility effect of diaspora’s location: A migration portfolio approach," Cahiers du GREThA (2007-2019) 2018-09, Groupe de Recherche en Economie Théorique et Appliquée (GREThA).
    13. Farid Makhlouf & Adil Naamane, 2013. "The Impact of Remittances on Economic Growth: The Evidence from Morocco," Working Papers hal-01885148, HAL.
    14. Bettin, Giulia & Paçacı Elitok, Seçil & Straubhaar, Thomas, 2012. "Causes and consequences of the downturn in financial remittances to Turkey: A descriptive approach," Edition HWWI: Chapters, in: Paçacı Elitok, Seçil & Straubhaar, Thomas (ed.), Turkey, migration and the EU, volume 5, pages 133-166, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    15. Veronica Bayangos & Karel Jansen, 2010. "The Macroeconomics of Remittances in The Philippines," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 28(61), pages 18-58, August.
    16. Ceyhun Bora Durdu & Serdar Sayan, 2010. "Emerging Market Business Cycles with Remittance Fluctuations," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 57(2), pages 303-325, June.
    17. Cooray Arusha & Mallick Debdulal, 2013. "International business cycles and remittance flows," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 13(1), pages 515-547, September.
    18. Farid Farid, 2014. "The impact of exchange rate policy on remittances in Morocco: A Threshold VAR analysis," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 34(4), pages 2351-2360.
    19. L. Correia & P. Martins, 2016. "Are remittances an instrument of stabilization and funding in the euro area?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(16), pages 1177-1181, November.
    20. Anupam Das, 2012. "Remittance Behavior of Migrants and its Macroeconomic Effects in Four Developing Countries," International Journal of Applied Behavioral Economics (IJABE), IGI Global, vol. 1(1), pages 41-59, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    migrant's remittances; business cycle; real output; households consumption; Pakistan.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General
    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-12-00672. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: John P. Conley (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.