IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ebl/ecbull/eb-08h60001.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Budget deficits and U.S. economic growth

Author

Listed:
  • Atrayee Ghosh Roy

    (Minnesota State University, Mankato)

  • Hendrik Van den Berg

    (University of Nebraska-Lincoln)

Abstract

This paper explores how the U.S. budget deficit affects U.S. economic growth. Time-series data for the 1973-2004 period is applied to a simultaneous equation model to estimate the various direct and indirect effects of budget deficits on growth. The results indicate that, ceteris paribus, an increase in budget deficits slows growth. However, the “twin” current account deficits, which our model shows tend to accompany budget deficits, increase growth. Hence, the overall relationship between budget deficits and economic growth is ambiguous.

Suggested Citation

  • Atrayee Ghosh Roy & Hendrik Van den Berg, 2009. "Budget deficits and U.S. economic growth," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(4), pages 3015-3030.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-08h60001
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.accessecon.com/Pubs/EB/2009/Volume29/EB-09-V29-I4-P290.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    2. Aart Kraay & Jaume Ventura, 2007. "The Dot-Com Bubble, the Bush Deficits, and the US Current Account," NBER Chapters, in: G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment, pages 457-496, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Bohn, Henning, 1991. "The Sustainability of Budget Deficits with Lump-Sum and with Income-Based Taxation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(3), pages 580-604, August.
    4. Atrayee Ghosh Roy, 2009. "Evidence on economic growth and government size," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(5), pages 607-614.
    5. Edwards, Sebastian, 1998. "Openness, Productivity and Growth: What Do We Really Know?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(447), pages 383-398, March.
    6. Ball, Laurence & Elmendorf, Douglas W & Mankiw, N Gregory, 1998. "The Deficit Gamble," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 30(4), pages 699-720, November.
    7. Selahattin Dibooglu, 1997. "Accounting for US current account deficits: an empirical investigation," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(6), pages 787-793.
    8. Fischer, Stanley, 1993. "The role of macroeconomic factors in growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 485-512, December.
    9. Chinn, Menzie D. & Ito, Hiro, 2007. "Current account balances, financial development and institutions: Assaying the world "saving glut"," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 546-569, June.
    10. Laurence Ball & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1995. "What do budget deficits do?," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 95-119.
    11. Esfahani, Hadi Salehi, 1991. "Exports, imports, and economic growth in semi-industrialized countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 93-116, January.
    12. Christopher Blattman & Jason Hwang & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2003. "The Terms of Trade and Economic Growth in the Periphery 1870-1938," NBER Working Papers 9940, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Mendoza, Enrique G., 1997. "Terms-of-trade uncertainty and economic growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 323-356, December.
    14. Bleaney, Michael & Greenaway, David, 2001. "The impact of terms of trade and real exchange rate volatility on investment and growth in sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 491-500, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ranjan Kumar Mohanty, 2020. "Fiscal Deficit and Economic Growth Nexus in India: A Simultaneous Error Correction Approach," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 18(3), pages 683-707, September.
    2. Antonino Buscemi & Alem Hagos Yallwe, 2012. "Fiscal Deficit, National Saving and Sustainability of Economic Growth in Emerging Economies: A Dynamic GMM Panel Data Approach," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 2(2), pages 126-140.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Morvillier, Florian, 2020. "Do currency undervaluations affect the impact of inflation on growth?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 275-292.
    2. Florian Morvillier, 2018. "The role of exchange rate undervaluations on the inflation-growth nexus," Working Papers hal-04141804, HAL.
    3. Florian Morvillier, 2019. "Do currency undervaluations affect the impact of inflation on growth?," Post-Print hal-02138677, HAL.
    4. Piotr Ciżkowicz & Andrzej Rzońca, 2011. "Mechanizmy oddziaływania deficytu fiskalnego na wzrost gospodarki," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 10, pages 1-20.
    5. Idrisov, Georgiy (Идрисов, Георгий) & Ponomarev, Yuriy (Пономарев, Юрий) & Sinelnikov-Murylev, Sergei (Синельников-Мурылев, Сергей), 2015. "Terms of trade and economic development of modern Russia [Условия Торговли И Экономическое Развитие Современной России]," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 3, pages 7-37.
    6. Syed Jawaid & Abdul Waheed, 2011. "Effects of Terms of Trade and its Volatility on Economic Growth: A Cross Country Empirical Investigation," Transition Studies Review, Springer;Central Eastern European University Network (CEEUN), vol. 18(2), pages 217-229, December.
    7. Kizito Uyi Ehigiamusoe & Mohamad Shaharudin Samsurijan, 2021. "What matters for finance‐growth nexus? A critical survey of macroeconomic stability, institutions, financial and economic development," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 5302-5320, October.
    8. Trofimov, Ivan D., 2018. "Income terms of trade and economic convergence: Evidence from Latin America," MPRA Paper 87598, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Idrisov, Georgy & Ponomarev, Yury & Sinelnikov-Murylev, Sergey, 2016. "Terms of trade and Russian economic development," Russian Journal of Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 279-301.
    10. Chengang Wang & Xiaming Liu & Yingqi Wei, 2004. "Impact of Openness on Growth in Different Country Groups," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(4), pages 567-585, April.
    11. Florian Morvillier, 2018. "The role of exchange rate undervaluations on the inflation-growth nexus," EconomiX Working Papers 2018-15, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    12. Khalil Jebran & Amjad Iqbal & Zia Ur Rehman Rao & Arshad Ali, 2018. "Effects of Terms of Trade on Economic Growth of Pakistan," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 53(1), pages 1-11, February.
    13. Gulzar Ali & Zhaohua Li, 2017. "An Empirical Investigation on the Role of exports, imports and its Determinants in Foreign Trade of Pakistan," Information Management and Business Review, AMH International, vol. 8(6), pages 39-58.
    14. Anthony Enisan Akinlo, 2005. "Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on Total Factor Productivity in Sub-Saharan African Countries," WIDER Working Paper Series RP2005-39, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    15. Piotr Misztal, 2012. "Terms of Trade and Economic Growth in Poland in the period 1980-2009," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 15(45), pages 51-67, December.
    16. Saaed, A.A.J., 2007. "Inflation and Economic Growth in Kuwait: 1985-2005. Evidence from Co-Integration and Error Correction Model," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 7(1).
    17. Andrés Felipe Londoño & Jorge Andrés Tamayo & Carlos Alberto Velásquez, 2012. "Dinámica de la política monetaria e inflación objetivo en Colombia: una aproximación FAVAR," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 30(68), pages 14-71, June.
    18. Elmendorf, Douglas W. & Gregory Mankiw, N., 1999. "Government debt," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 25, pages 1615-1669, Elsevier.
    19. Salim B. Furth, 2010. "Terms of Trade Volatility and Precautionary Savings in Developing Economies," DEGIT Conference Papers c015_013, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
    20. Patrick Guillaumont, 2009. "An Economic Vulnerability Index: Its Design and Use for International Development Policy," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(3), pages 193-228.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    economic growth; budget deficits; stationary; simultaneity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-08h60001. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: John P. Conley (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.