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"It is the economy, companheiro!": an empirical analysis of Lula's re-election based on municipal data

Author

Listed:
  • Claudio Djissey Shikida

    (IBMEC-MG)

  • Leonardo Monteiro Monasterio

    (UFPEL)

  • Ari Francisco de Araujo Jr.

    (IBMEC-MG)

  • Andre Carraro

    (UFPEL)

  • Otávio Menezes Damé

    (UFPel)

Abstract

This paper discusses the reasons that led to the Lula's 2006 re-election. Spatial analysis methods revealed that, contrary to 2002, the President had more votes in less developed municipalities of Brazil. The econometric results cast doubt on the analyses that attribute to Bolsa Família Programme total responsibility for the re-election. Lula''s electoral success results from changes in the labor market, low inflation and an export boom that have reduced inequality and improved the real wages of the Brazilian poor.

Suggested Citation

  • Claudio Djissey Shikida & Leonardo Monteiro Monasterio & Ari Francisco de Araujo Jr. & Andre Carraro & Otávio Menezes Damé, 2009. ""It is the economy, companheiro!": an empirical analysis of Lula's re-election based on municipal data," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(2), pages 976-991.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-08c30073
    as

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    File URL: http://www.accessecon.com/Pubs/EB/2009/Volume29/EB-09-V29-I2-P46.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Florax, Raymond J. G. M. & Folmer, Hendrik & Rey, Sergio J., 2003. "Specification searches in spatial econometrics: the relevance of Hendry's methodology," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 557-579, September.
    2. Hendry, David F., 2006. "A comment on "Specification searches in spatial econometrics: The relevance of Hendry's methodology"," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 309-312, March.
    3. Florax, Raymond J.G.M. & Folmer, Hendrik & Rey, Sergio J., 2006. "A comment on specification searches in spatial econometrics: The relevance of Hendry's methodology: A reply," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 300-308, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bedran-Martins, Ana Maria & Lemos, Maria Carmen, 2017. "Politics of drought under Bolsa Família program in Northeast Brazil," World Development Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 7, pages 15-21.
    2. Sergei Suarez Dillon Soares, 2012. "Bolsa Família, its Design, its Impacts and Possibilities for the Future," Working Papers 89, International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth.
    3. Sergei Suarez Dillon Soares, 2015. "Bolsa Família: Sintesi del suo impatto," One Pager Italian 137, International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth.
    4. Sergei Suarez Dillon Soares, 2012. "Bolsa Família: Un Resumen de sus Impactos," One Pager Spanish 137, International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth.
    5. Sergei Suarez Dillon Soares, 2012. "Bolsa Família: A Summary of Its Impacts," One Pager 137, International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H1 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government
    • D7 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making

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