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A nonparametric adjustment for tests of changing mean

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  • Ted Juhl

    (University of Kansas)

Abstract

When testing for a change in mean of a time series, the null hypothesis is no change in mean. However, a change in mean causes a bias in the estimation of serial correlation parameters. This bias can cause nonmonotonic power to the point that if the change is big enough, power can go to zero. In this paper, we show that a nonparametric correction can restore power. The procedure is illustrated with a small Monte Carlo experiment.

Suggested Citation

  • Ted Juhl, 2004. "A nonparametric adjustment for tests of changing mean," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(34), pages 1-11.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-04c20029
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andrews, Donald W K & Ploberger, Werner, 1994. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only under the Alternative," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1383-1414, November.
    2. Timothy J. Vogelsang, 1998. "Trend Function Hypothesis Testing in the Presence of Serial Correlation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 123-148, January.
    3. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    4. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-856, July.
    5. Vogelsang, Timothy J., 1997. "Wald-Type Tests for Detecting Breaks in the Trend Function of a Dynamic Time Series," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(6), pages 818-848, December.
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    JEL classification:

    • C2 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables

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