IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eaa/ijaeqs/v1y2004i1_24.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Russian Financial Crisis of 1998: An Econometric Investigation

Author

Listed:
  • Feridun, Mete

Abstract

This article aims at deriving lessons from the Russian financial crisis through examining the root causes of the crisis based on a probit model incorporating 20 monthly macroeconomic and financial sector indicators spanning the period 1988:1 – 1998:8. The results turned out to be as expected. Strong evidence emerged suggesting that the significant variables are foreign direct investment/GDP, inflation, world oil prices, real interest rates, current account/GDP, GDP per capita, foreign exchange reserves, stock prices, real exchange rate, and export growth. Signs of the variables were mostly in line with what one would have expected, except public debt, bank reserves / bank assets, real interest rates, and lending and deposit rate spread.

Suggested Citation

  • Feridun, Mete, 2004. "Russian Financial Crisis of 1998: An Econometric Investigation," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 1(4), pages 113-122.
    • Handle: RePEc:eaa:ijaeqs:v:1:y2004:i:1_24
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.usc.es/economet/reviews/ijaeqs146.pdf
    Download Restriction: No
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Graciela Kaminsky & Saul Lizondo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 1-48, March.
    2. Ozkan, F Gulcin & Sutherland, Alan, 1995. "Policy Measures to Avoid a Currency Crisis," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(429), pages 510-519, March.
    3. Dooley, Michael P, 2000. "A Model of Crises in Emerging Markets," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(460), pages 256-272, January.
    4. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1986. "Rational and Self-fulfilling Balance-of-Payments Crises," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(1), pages 72-81, March.
    5. Pablo Bustelo & Clara Garcia & Iliana Olivie, 1999. "Global and Domestic Factors of Financial Crises in Emerging Economies: Lessons from the East Asian Episodes (1997-1999)," Working Papers 002, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Instituto Complutense de Estudios Internacionales.
    6. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: An empirical treatment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 351-366, November.
    7. Feridun, M., 2004. "Brazilian Real Crisis Revisited: A Linear Probability Model to Identify Leading Indicators," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 1(1), pages 81-96.
    8. Berg, Andrew & Pattillo, Catherine, 1999. "Predicting currency crises:: The indicators approach and an alternative," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 561-586, August.
    9. Steven Radelet & Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1998. "The East Asian Financial Crisis: Diagnosis, Remedies, Prospects," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(1), pages 1-90.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Saleem, Kashif, 2008. "International linkage of the Russian market and the Russian financial crisis: a multivariate GARCH analysis," BOFIT Discussion Papers 8/2008, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    2. Svatoš, M. & Smutka, L. & Ishchukova, N. & Vasilyonok, V., 2014. "Russian Agrarian Foreign Trade Development – the Impact of Selected Factors," AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Economics and Management, vol. 6(3), pages 1-13, September.
    3. B. Bakhtyar, 2017. "Asian and Global Financial Crises Effect on Malaysia Co2 Emission," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 7(2), pages 236-242.
    4. Saleem, Kashif, 2009. "International linkage of the Russian market and the Russian financial crisis: A multivariate GARCH analysis," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 243-256, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mete Feridun, 2005. "Explaining Financial Crises in Emerging Markets: A logit model on the Turkish data (1984-2001)," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 10(1), pages 33-47, Jan-Jun.
    2. Feridun, M., 2004. "Brazilian Real Crisis Revisited: A Linear Probability Model to Identify Leading Indicators," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 1(1), pages 81-96.
    3. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2010. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 25, pages 1439-1520, Elsevier.
    4. Brana, Sophie & Chenaf-Nicet, Dalila, 2001. "Indicateurs avancés de crise de change : un examen critique," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 77(4), pages 569-592, décembre.
    5. Ryota Nakatani, 2017. "The Effects of Productivity Shocks, Financial Shocks, and Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates: An Application of the Currency Crisis Model and Implications for Emerging Market Crises," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(11), pages 2545-2561, November.
    6. Piersanti, Giovanni, 2012. "The Macroeconomic Theory of Exchange Rate Crises," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199653126.
    7. Mete Feridun, 2004. "Determinants of the Argentine Financia Predict Future Crises?," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 9(2), pages 31-49, Jul-Dec.
    8. Ahec Šonje, Amina & Babić, Ante & Mlinarević, Katarina, 2003. "Determinants of currency disturbances in transition economies of Central and Eastern Europe," MPRA Paper 83140, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Mar 2003.
    9. Ari, Ali, 2012. "Early warning systems for currency crises: The Turkish case," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 391-410.
    10. Kristina Kittelmann & Marcel Tirpak & Rainer Schweickert & Lúcio Vinhas De Souza, 2006. "From Transition Crises to Macroeconomic Stability? Lessons from a Crises Early Warning System for Eastern European and CIS Countries," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 48(3), pages 410-434, September.
    11. Cruz-Rodríguez Alexis, 2013. "The Relationship between Fiscal Sustainability and Currency Crises in Some Selected Countries," Review of Economic Perspectives, Sciendo, vol. 13(4), pages 176-194, December.
    12. Ahec Šonje, Amina & Babić, Ante, 2002. "Measuring and predicting currency disturbances in Croatia: the “signals” approach," MPRA Paper 83137, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2002.
    13. Lin, Chin-Shien & Khan, Haider A. & Chang, Ruei-Yuan & Wang, Ying-Chieh, 2008. "A new approach to modeling early warning systems for currency crises: Can a machine-learning fuzzy expert system predict the currency crises effectively?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(7), pages 1098-1121, November.
    14. Komulainen, Tuomas, 2004. "Essays on financial crises in emerging markets," Scientific Monographs, Bank of Finland, number 2004_029.
    15. Sweta Saxena & Kar-yiu Wong, 1999. "Currency Crises and Capital Control: A Survey," Working Papers 0045, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
    16. Nakatani, Ryota, 2018. "Real and financial shocks, exchange rate regimes and the probability of a currency crisis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 60-73.
    17. Yanping Zhao & Jakob Haan & Bert Scholtens & Haizhen Yang, 2014. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises: Are They the Same in Different Exchange Rate Regimes?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 25(5), pages 937-957, November.
    18. repec:zbw:bofism:2004_029 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Peltonen, Tuomas A., 2006. "Are emerging market currency crises predictable? A test," Working Paper Series 571, European Central Bank.
    20. Pavel Trunin & M. Kamenskih, 2007. "Monitoring Financial Stability In Developing Economies (Case of Russia)," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 111.
    21. Komulainen, Tuomas, 2004. "Essays on financial crises in emerging markets," Bank of Finland Scientific Monographs, Bank of Finland, volume 0, number sm2004_029, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Russian financial crisis; probit model; early warning systems;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eaa:ijaeqs:v:1:y2004:i:1_24. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: M. Carmen Guisan (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.usc.es/economet/eaa.htm .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.